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Comment by anchpop | Hacker News Reader

I don't think so. I think the issue is that people don't multiply correctly. A 1 in 1000 chance of death is actually very high, it just doesn't seem high because 1/1000 seems like a small number. But a small number (1/1000) times a very big number (how bad death is) can still be a big number.

As an example, if you would pay $100 to extend your healthy life by one day (I know I would), that means each healthy day of your life you have ahead of you should be worth at least $100 to you. Assuming you have 10 years left of healthy life, your life ought to be worth at least 10×360×100=$360,000 to you. So a 1/1000 chance of death costs you 1/1000 * $360,000 = $360.

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This reminds me of an observation I once had at a time when I was doing contract work at an hourly rate. During a trip to Vegas, I found myself at a blackjack table making bets that happened to match my hourly rate. It occurred to me then that I was essentially gambling hours of my life, each turn in a sense increasing or decreasing my effective lifespan.

Of course "time == money" is a well known axiom, but it was still odd to consider in that context.

I read a book long ago on blackjack card counting. It's possible to take the winning edge, the maximum bet size, and the number of bets per hour, and figure out what your hourly wage is doing this.

Also figure in this being hard work, as it requires your full attention.

The pay just wasn't that good, and besides, the casinos will ban you when they figure out you're counting.

So that wasn't for me. Instead, I invest in the stock market, where "buy and forget" is not much work, and the odds are much better.

This applies to poker, too - a game where you really can get a consistent advantage over other players with sufficient study and make a living. Once you strip everything else away about the game, you're sitting in a casino for many hours a day, spending as much time as you can with mentally ill idiots... to make less money than you would applying that exact same effort to get good at an in-demand job skill and building things that people need.

Most people who are in a position to make a career out of poker decide that it's not worth it and remain (very good) recreational players. Casinos can be fun places to visit, and tournaments can be a lot of fun, but I wouldn't want to make them a fixture of my life.

Lots of people with in-demand skills still not really employable, so that's one advantage of poker.

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