Japan’s anti-aging vaccine looks promising in mice
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> Does it work? It does and it works quite well. Tests have shown that the preparation developed by the scientists forced the production of antibodies in the bodies of mice, which through the white blood cells attacked the aging cells in their bodies. The average lifespan of laboratory rodents that took the preparation extended by 15 percent relative to the control group, and individuals suffering from arterial stiffness saw a significant reduction in the damaged areas of these blood vessels.
Results in mice will probably not track to humans, assuming this treatment even makes it to that stage. The development time for most vaccines is on the order of 10 years or more, so even if it does make it (again, unlikely), it would be at least 10 years before this becomes available to humans. And there's a lot that can go wrong along the way. The biggest problem is that mice are not humans, and as far as animal models go, they're not even a good one.
Regarding that 15%, without some error bars (which can be quite large) it will be hard to say how "promising" this actually is.
The results have been an astounding success, with vaccines that are about as safe and effective as those from previous development processes. So it is possible to safely fast track these projects with enough urgency and investment.
a) the manufacturers being incentivized to dedicate resources to branch prediction, essentially making the failure path more expensive. and
b) the regulator expediting the bureaucracy for a specific set of approvals (essentially jumping the line). Presumably there are other applications that were delayed to support the expedited applications, and I'll bet the expediting process hurt overall bureaucratic efficiency.
For A, I'd assume that the option was already priced in by the pharma co's and is (in the non-urgent case) not particularly cost-effective. For B, I'm all for making bureaucratic systems operate more efficiently and responsively, but I'm not convinced that most circumstances are urgent enough to sacrifice throughput to the latency gods.
It reminds me of a scene from House MD; >People should not be testing drugs because they are desperate. But, people won't test drugs unless they are desperate. We need drugs to save children and puppies ergo we need desperate people ergo welfare kills sick children.
Maybe in the future AI will solve this problem, if we can learn to accurately model the human body. But given it's insane complexity that's certainly going to be a big challenge
It’s clear to me that modeling the human body would be complicated, but I don’t have any idea about the order of magnitude. Can someone chime in?
I bet this would require computational power equivalent to whatever is "processing" the govern of real-world interactions in our bodies.
So, to very accurately model the human body, you need a model that has as many parameters as there are molecules in a human body, give or take a few orders of magnitude.
I have no idea to what extent you could get away with more high-level models - i would expect they could work well for some kinds of problems, but not for very systemic interactions, like hormonal or aging-related issues, that affect each cell in the human body to some extent.
You'd probably start off instead by emulating specific proteins. That's already really hard, but obviously a trillion times easier than what you're suggesting.
Once you can emulate a number of proteins you can start to emulate interactions of drugs with those proteins. That's probably going to get you to a good enough heuristic where you can say "ok let's try this on something alive" or "this clearly doesn't work".
This is, to my knowledge, the existing approach being taken. It's just that a single protein is extremely complex. A single protein is a series of amino acids linked by peptides - each amino acid is itself a pairing of numerous atoms.
As you go from atom -> amino acid -> poly peptide -> protein you get a massive increase in complexity.
And the toe nails and similar things are why I was saying "give or take a few orders of magnitude". Not to mention, certain drugs could affect your toenail.
I think you could get to human trials using just a computer if you had a sufficiently sized set of emulated X's and Y's.
The body is much more complex than a collection of proteins.
Their "testers" happened to be people unjustly persecuted by their bosses, ranging from children to women and elderly.
Other groups of people have done plenty of unethical medical experiments since then - also typically against marginalized people.
Take https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chester_M._Southam, for instance - thanks to his contributions to the study of cancer (consisting of injecting cancer cells into people without their consent). Thanks to his, uh, contributions to the field, he was later elected president of the American Association for Cancer Research.
[1] Which is utter nightmare fuel.
[2] Most of the members of which were given immunity from war crimes prosecution by the United States. Utterly mind-blowing. The ones that the communists were fortunate enough to get their hands on were subjected to a helping of Soviet justice.
If such a thing were legal, human test subjects would be the lowest classes, who would accept a pittance to support their family, or worse, who would sell their children for drug testing to score another hit. The vast majority of early drug trials cause extreme harm, so in essence any such contract would be a game of Russian roulette, except bullets to the head are a quick death. The extremely powerful incentive for companies would be to misrepresentat the risks and pay a pittance for the earliest trials, since these are the least likely to lead to profitable new medications.
Not to mention, if we were to replace mouse models with human subjects, the cost to develop new drugs would skyrocket, as even the least pittance afforded to some slave laborer in the this world would be more expensive than a mouse.
Secondly, we've removed the profit motive, so that people are not allowed to be coerced by money into trying out someone's drug, and drug companies are not incentivised to test their drugs exclusively on the poorest people - this helps prevent abuse.
Also, one benefit of mice is, morbidly, that you can immediately kill and autopsy them after treatment. I hope we can all agree that this would probably not be the right call for humans.
Simplicity can be elegant, but it can also be foolish. As a mechanism to combat wealth inequality the term foolish is probably even a bit euphemistic.
Personally I wouldn't advertise any patriotism here, it is very important not to take advantage of desperate people here as long as the experimental treatment cannot possibly help against their conditions. Otherwise you certainly would loose more than you would gain. I doubt there can be a general rule though, the right choice depends on the circumstances and the risk to the patient.
A model != an animal. A model is an animal + process for giving the animal a disease.
Mice can be a very good model. As a model for obesity drugs that work through appetite reduction most mouse models are great.
For Alzheimer's all models are terrible (amyloid beta injection, genetic over expression of tau, etc).
"Mice models are bad" sounds profound but doesn't really say anything. Far more informative to say "mouse models of senolytics are bad, and have poor translation to human trials." But we don't know this because we haven't really tried senolytics in humans, so we have no idea if mice are a good or bad model of human senolytics.
I'm idealistic because "mouse gets old and blood vessels don't work as well" is probably pretty similar to "person gets old and blood vessels don't work as well". As opposed to ALS, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's which mice don't get so we just inject them with stuff we find in the blood and brain of the afflicted.
In this case I don't know if that's true. Total layman, but this sounds like autophagy triggered through an immune response. Autophagy is already promising fro human life extension. This feels like an approach that could be generalizable, even if perhaps the specific antibody might not apply.
A vaccine would be ideal, but senolytic supplements are likely closer.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-39...
yeah, but you don't have to spend centuries toiling away as a slave for the Immortal Dictator
But most people would probably take the "you have to work an extra 100 years, but you get to live an extra 125" bargain.
The process of aging, as it turns out, is malleable. It's most probably controlled by some signaling molecules in the bloodstream, it's just that we don't know yet which ones. Look up "heterochronic parabiosis" for related research.
Then there are Yamanaka factors, those not only erase cell identity, they also erase the age. Of course you don't want all your cells turning into stem cells, but the fact that this mechanism exists at all means that it's likely possible to isolate the pathway that resets the age of a cell but keeps the identity.
Then there's the "rejuvenation event" during embryonic development shortly after conception, as shown by DNA methylation clocks.
So currently we have these puzzle pieces that we don't yet know how to put together, and some are still missing. We'll get there eventually.
It's not even going to be life extension, as in, "you'll still get old and eventually die of old age but slower", it's full-on rejuvenation, as in, "you'll look and feel 25 and the only thing giving away your actual age will be your ID".
Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/882/
This wouldn't stop the cell from "aging" and we still have aging-related issues like with memory degradation and other stuff that is not related to the zombie cells.
If this vaccine causes the immune system to 'forget' by killing off B cells, then you may have to get a booster shot for every vaccine you've ever had. That may not sound like a big deal but that creates a class division for longevity treatments. I could afford to take a month off, quarantine myself and get twenty booster shots. Some of my neighbors can't, so either they risk getting sick or they don't take the treatment at all.
Science fiction has always asserted there would be class divisions in these sorts of treatments, so perhaps that's not a surprise.
Not to mention, people take time off for augmentations and plastic surgery all the time.
A flu shot? No. If you are traveling internationally they recommend getting your vaccinations a month in advance. Plus it's generally not the case that they want you to take every vaccination on the same day. If you had to be re vaccinated for everything you're currently required to go to school, you'd be taking DTap, Polio, Varicella, MMR, Hep A, Hep B, Hib, and probably Meningitis, and a couple of those take multiple doses.
> Not to mention, people take time off for augmentations and plastic surgery all the time.
Everyone, or upper and middle class?
So if you’re a tech billionaire who has noticed laugh or worry lines while checking out your hair transplants in the mirror, your body is already full of targets for this treatment. And the treatment is a vaccine. You can’t titrate a vaccine the way you can an SSRI, ramping up slowly to a full dose. Or none that I know of, so your whole body is going to be devouring itself many times faster than it normally does. You will probably develop a fever and feel weird for a moment, and your disposal systems for spare materials might be overwhelmed, like with rhabdo (mass muscle cell death leading to protein poisoning and kidney failure).
I wonder if this is a case where antibodies should be administered intravenously over the course of days followed by the vaccine to make it permanent if your body handles it well.
Do you mean because of the longevity treatment, or in the sense that everyone gets cancer if they live long enough?
It's why you can extend your lifespan but you will ultimately be foiled unless you solve the problem holistically.
A higher quality middle age has quality of life benefits that probably stand on their own, but remaining active also does increase life expectancy dramatically. So the cause-effect curve may be treatment->healthy lifestyle->life expectancy, instead of treatment->life expectancy.
I could get the jab, continue to be a couch potato, and leave a prettier corpse.
Chronic injuries make liars of us all. Take care of what you've got, while you've got it.
Every human. Not all mammals get cancer though. Whales live a very, very long time, and to my knowledge there's no incidence of cancer. In general (and somewhat paradoxically) the larger the animal the less likely they are to get cancer.
Your body produces cancerous cells all the time, but most of the time the immune system finds them. But when your immune system gets old and sluggish it doesn't find and kill them as well increasing risks of cancer. So if we can figure out how to keep your immune system young we could reduce risks of cancer by 20-100x.
https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/ren6cc/japanese_sc...
Broadly, the abstract seems to be describing a particular cell-surface marker found to be associated with senescence ("seno-antigen") which can be targeted by a therapy ("genetic ablation") which accelerates removal of cells with that marker. Doing so improves the lifespan of mice so treated.
Thus, as the abstract concludes, "...vaccination targeting seno-antigens could be a potential strategy for new senolytic therapies."
Making sure they actually get replaced with new cells instead of scar tissue is another.
Until that’s resolved, killing the wrong kinds of senescent cells will kill you much faster than leaving them alone, so even highly targeted killing of senescent cells can’t “rejuvenate” all your organs.
https://www.cell.com/cell-metabolism/fulltext/S1550-4131(20)...
Given N "advances" that you hear touted based on mouse trials, how many turn into real human therapies? (Curing aging in mice isn't really the advance we're looking for.) How many turn into real human therapies that live up to the breathless announcements that were made based on the mouse trials? I don't have hard evidence, but my gut estimate is 10-20% actually deliver.
So, yes, while waiting for the science, there is some empirical grounds to have a default stance of doubt (or, if you prefer, skepticism).
2) In science often abstracts or intros open with grand ideas before settling into a much smaller scope.
3) The rise of predatory journals, not to mention people citing pre-print arXivs means even if something looks likes a reasonable article, it's good to get the opinions of other experts.
4) Just because something works doesn't imply how practical it is for actual deployment. (I've been to plenty of chemical talks about fantastic polymers, I've only ever seen one turn into anything of value.)
If you think gen z are pissed at boomers, slip another 200 years of differential in and things start to look really bad.
Everyone develops cancer given a long enough timeline. If we can somehow defeat that, or give everyone robot bodies after their biological one fails, we still have a wide array of brain diseases to defeat.
But more importanly, this isn't necessarily about extending lifetimes but making them worth it (and possibly productive until the last minute)
Here's a take, if people get to live so much longer, then money is not the variable to be optimised for humanity in general...
Also, rates of labour, skill, energy expenditure and so many variables will undergo a change in definitions.
I would like to see everyone make it... I believe so would everyone else, if increased lifespans are on the line.
One step closer to raise our mice overlords.