Quebec shuts down schools, bars, gyms and more
cbc.ca
cbc.ca
Constant hygiene theatre eroding faith in institutions.
The entire testing and contact tracing infrastructure has crumbled. You have to wait 3+ hours to get a test, and you have a good chance of being sent back home. Meanwhile, there is an 81% chance that one of the two people next to you in line are positive, and there is not enough space for you to distance themselve from them.
Now even the most optimistic projections are that within two weeks there will be a shortage of ICU beds, so a lockdown is required.
Did you mean days or is it faster in Quebec? Where I am in Ontario, it takes 3 days to book a PCR test appointment. God forbid anyone who might be positive interact with other people in those 3 days.
Have a look at the Quebec graph: [1]
In just 7 days, Quebec has gone from 'mid-low' levels and hopeful for a normal Xmas with Delta 'mostly going away' ...
... to a massive spike, the most daily cases ever seen during this pandemic, absolutely no definitive evidence that Omicron is somehow less lethal, and of course knowing that thousands have died from this already, and aware of the likely consequences?
Imagine having just a meagre bit of insight, knowing how those numbers relate to Hospital beds (they track that very closely), and that within just 1 more week, you're going to be totally overwhelmed?
Imagine being person with actual responsibility like a Politician, Health Advisor, or even Dean, major CEO, Provincial/City Official knowing that your failure to act will probably cause death?
It is what it is, we have to deal with it.
Closing gyms and cinemas for a few weeks while Omicron crashes through (and FYI Xmas season where people tend to gather) is a relatively small price to pay.
Pretty much all evidence coming out of South Africa is showing that omicron is very mild and hospitalizations are extremely rare.
Oxford Study of early Omicron in UK shows it's no different than Delta, but they cautioned that data is limited. [1]
The point is: while we might get lucky with Omicron, we don't have definitive data on it, ergo, we have to rely on our past experience with Alpha/Beta/Delta to inform policy.
And FYI what is 'definitive' is that we are 100% sure that it is 'much more transmissible' by about 3x.
If Omicron is 'as bad as Delta' - and - we knew it was 3x more transmissible - and we were not sure of it's legality - and the government didn't take decisive action, the resulting death would imply dereliction of duty on a criminal scale.
There are 10x more people who are 'pro vaccine' than 'anti' and the 'protests' over needless death would be much worse.
I am hopeful that Omicron will be less lethal but esp. with Xmas and 3x tranmissability, we have not choice but to take action.
[1] https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/article/2021-12-14-omicron-and...
Policies (especially in Quebec) seem to be cyclical react-to-what-you-see, with little thinking for the long run. What's the plan? Do we have one?
Just because you don't know what the plan is, doesn't mean there isn't one.
Provincial and Federal entities are in constant contact with their peers in Europe, the US the WHO etc. there's a lot of information going around.
Anyone who has been in such dynamic operational circumstances (i.e. the Army / Armed Forces) knows what facing chaos is, and generally speaking, as the saying goes 'No Plan Survives Contact' - it's more about managing information, preparedness/training than any kind of specific tactic.
And FYI, the #1 tactic by far, thus far, has been vaccines. The data from all the provinces fairly clearly shows that the pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed, to the point that if we had near 100% vaxx, I'm not sure if R0 would be anywhere near 1, i.e. it could not spread. That said, Omicron is a game-changer in that regard.
This is exactly what I’d say if I didn’t have a plan.
Wasn’t it BC that manipulated covid cases in the hospital setting and had to own up to the correct data?
And no, the current vaccines aren’t getting us out of this. Look at Singapore with 95% of eligible population vaccinated - they had a raging wave last month where 80%+ of the cases were fully vaccinated.
The vaccines keep them out of the hospital but don’t seem to do much for infection or transmission risk (see Lancet analysis).
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
Canada had under 10% vaccination till June 10. So vast majority of our vaccinations happened since June 10 and as they wane off in 3-6 months, they are now all getting infected.
Did you mix up the colours on the chart?
Most of those hospitalized are unvaccinated.
Since June, by far most cases are among the unvaccinated.
Given a ~75% vaccination rate, the fact that >75% of cases are 'unvaccinated' implies strongly that this is an issue of unvaccinated - both in 'spread' and number hospitalized.
The only place the data diverges is in the last 2 weeks - i.e Omicron where the gap is closing with less vaccine protections, however, the data out is indicating the Booster shot is as effective against Omicron as it was against Delta.
As Boosters are given out, you'll again see the big gap of spread/hospitalzattions among unvaccinated, with the caveat that Omicron may possibly not be as likely to put people in the hospital.
Like I have said before, it's a potential severe symptom mitigator which also wanes off over few months. That doesn't mean it prevents transmission or infection. My comment was in reference to "vaccine passports" which make no logical sense when they don't prevent infection or transmission.
Also, the hospitalizations and deaths are vastly in elderly, obese or immunocompromised. It makes no sense to force it on young, fit and healthy people, especially not on kids.
You are aware that Pfizer is already talking about a 4th shot right? How many more shots do you suggest people should take?
He must be guilty because that's exactly what a guilty person would say!"
This is not helpful rhetoric.
BC releases tons of data on a weekly basis. Here is their conf. from last week [1] there's tons of great information.
They talk about and provide their justifications for their policies.
Agree or not, they are rational.
"And no, the current vaccines aren’t getting us out of this. "
Your Singapore anecdote proves just the opposite: while Singapore had 'kept out' COVID and had their first, real material wave over the last few months, their mortality was exceedingly low, maxing out at 15 deaths/day with almost 4000 cases a day at their peak. For reference, Canada had 4K cases/day at the same time, with about 40 deaths/day.
While Singapore was having more cases per capita, wich is not unexpected for an urban area with their 'first big wave' - the vaccines were very effective in saving lives.
The same thing will eventually happen in Australia, NZ and Taiwan.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF1H5IkhWvo&ab_channel=Vanco...
It's not going away.
The data that I provided twice on this thread demonstrates decisively that vaccines reduce new cases: the clear majority of cases are from unvaccinated even though they are a minority of the population. This is definitely an indication of reduced spread.
This is entirely wrong. There's now over 15 studies showing that vaccinated, even in mild cases, have the same viral load as the unvaccinated, especially after 2-6 months of the shots. This shot is not preventing transmission as has been clearly shown several times now - before omicron. If the shots don't prevent transmission and mild cases have same viral load, then the R0 is unaffected.
Also Ontario has 76% of cases in fully vaccinated while having a 77% full vaccination rate in the population. Canada had under 10% vaccination till June 10. So vast majority of our vaccinations happened since June 10 and as they wane off in 3-6 months, they are now all getting infected.
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
So it's not "pandemic exists mostly among the unvaxxed". This lie being repeated again and again is how we ended up in this situation where triple vaccinated people are now being surprised that they caught covid.
The shots are merely a potential severe symptom mitigator and might be useful if you are old, obese or have health conditions. The mandates of something which doesn't prevent transmission has been the most illogical thing to ever come out of the government.
The cafeterias at malls have these waist high metal barricades to prevent unvaccinated from sitting down in the cafeteria and they are checking vaccine status to enter inside the metal barricaded area. The entire thing has air exchange with outside the barricade. It's the most illogical thing I have ever seen.
1)
"That some studies show similar viral loads" - does not tell us about the net transmissiblity of the different populations.
You have to get COVID in the first place in order to have a 'viral load', but that inference won't take into account those who don't get it.
2)
From BC's late August Report (it was the first one that came up when I Googled):
"From Aug. 13-26, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 81.7% of cases and 85.8% of hospitalizations."
FYI they had 75% of the over age 12 with 1 dose and 85% with 2 doses at that time. (Same reference)
The data is decisive and shows that the virus is overwhelmingly spreading among the unvaccinated part of the population - and clearly a factor in the R0.
At that point, the unvaccinated make up ~25% of the population and 80% of the cases.
3)
Hospital resources are being drained by the unvaccinated.
There are some people who legit cannot take it, and there are some people who are, let's just say, 'truly mentally deficient' who we can't hold accountable for their actions.
But the vast majority of the 'unvaccinated' are irrationally and irresponsibly making a choice that is not only creating a much greater burden to the Health Care system - but they are also materially helping the disease spread.
---> COVID mostly a plague of the unvaccinated and they are externalizing harm and cost to others.
Why are you using data from August when newer data is available and shows 76% of cases in Ontario are now in vaccinated? I even mentioned that Canada had under 10% vaccination till June 10, so vast majority of the vaccinations happened after June 10. With their 3-6 month waning immunity, we are now off the "honeymoon" period and are seeing 76% of cases in vaccinated.
Rest of your comment tells me you can't have a civil discussion without dehumanizing people.
This is false.
Where is your reference for this?
Don't have one?
I will reference the data you're commenting about for you, because it disproves your own case: Ontario, most recent data [1] - which I have already referenced in other comments.
I chose the BC data because it was the first that came up - and it is 100% representative of what has been going on globally.
Since the dawn of vaccines, all around the world, the data shows that rates of infections are about 5x higher among the vaccinated.
It's definitive, all of the data shows that, from every country.
The only distinction to that - is literally in the last 2 days, with Omicron, we're seeing more cases among the vaccinated, but it's not 75%.
Stop spreading anti-vaxx information during a pandemic.
[1] when newer data is available and shows 76% of cases in Ontario are now in vaccinated?
Why do you keep resolving to ad-hominem attacks? People usually do that when the facts aren't on their side. I am also not an anti-vaxxer. I am fully vaccinated for other diseases and most likely more vaccines than the average Canadian because of my legal status. I also suggest elders, obese and those with comorbidities will benefit from the COVID shots. My problem is with "vaccine mandates", especially for young, fit and healthy people. Stop throwing around words when you don't know anything about me.
The very first link I had in my comment which you replied to agrees with what I said about 76% of cases in Ontario being fully vaccinated.
For example, today:
673 unvaccinated, 132 partially vaccinated and 2500 fully vaccinated cases.
Also, many of these partially vaccinated should be considered fully vaccinated as Pfizer is supposed to be fully vaccinated after 7 days, not 14 days whereas Ontario uses 14 days for that status and vast majority of our shots were Pfizer.
Even prior to omicron, the fully vaccinated cases were drastically rising, much faster than the rate of vaccinations. For example, when 72% of Ontario was fully vaccinated on October 8, 36.6% of cases were fully vaccinated. However, a month later when the vaccinations went up by only 3% (75%) on November 10, the cases went up by 12% with 48.4% of cases being fully vaccinated. This shows the drastic decline in efficacy after 3-6 months (remember - Ontario had under 10% vaccinations till June 10). Even if Omicron hadn't shown up, the fully vaccinated cases would have risen in a similar fashion by January. Omicron simply sped up that process.
The legal and scientific definition of a vaccine is "any substance designed to be administered to a human being for the prevention of 1 or more diseases".
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/4132#a_2
"Prevention" is the key word here. These shots do not prevent infection, nor do they prevent transmission. They should never have been called "vaccines".
So far, you have ad hominem attacked me, used outdated data from August, ignored the link which I pointed to for Ontario. If the shots were so effective, then why are they pushing for 3rd doses for everyone and why is Pfizer talking about 4th dose already? When do you accept that these shots are not holding up to what they were sold as?
Pfizer CEO says fourth Covid vaccine doses may be needed sooner than expected due to omicron:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/omicron-pfizer-ceo-says-we-m...
Israel giving 4th shot:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/21/middleeast/israel-fourth-covi...
Never before have we given 3rd and 4th shots for any vaccine so fast. Tetanus shots boosters are given after 10 years if needed. And here we have 4 shots in less than a year.
This conversation is going nowhere, so I won't be responding further.
To prevent Canada's shitty health care system from being exposed.
We've got like half the capacity of the EU average and multiples less than the US...
Moreover, Canada's response to COVID has resulted in considerably fewer deaths, less than 40% the rate of the US.
While there are issues with the system overall, this isn't it.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_...
Edit - I'd also look at all-cause mortality when the dust settles. Canada currently has an epidemic of late diagnosed cancers right now, for example.
Just as an FYI, it's often better to look at specific EU countries, as the health systems vary a lot, and one probably doesn't want to compare Bulgaria (as a poorer country) with Germany.
Like Ireland (where I live) is far, far closer to the US model than Germany (as an example). EU-level averages disguise such variations, which are useful to understand.
The UK, US and Canada have roughly the same ballpark 'beds' and also 'physicians' per capita.
In the last 25 years they have taken the policy of 'getting you out', which is rational.
After an operation, if you don't have obvious signs of problems, you go home.
In Japan, where they have 4x the number of beds, you linger in the Hospital.
Maybe a better figure to look at would be the speed of treatment etc.
https://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2940
Anyhow Canada is pretty low on the list, nearly every EU country is higher, as is the UK and US.
That's crisis response, not a plan. A plan requires an end goal, a way to get out of the situation. Ok, we try to keep our already failing healthcare system from failing for a bit longer, how long? is this the best solution (as opposed to a paniced response)? what are we doing to get out of the quarantine-every-4-months cycle?
Our "plan" right now seems to be that we get lucky and covid just goes away on its own, but that has not happened for the last 2 years. It's time we start thinking ahead imo
EDIT: To clarify, I think crisis response is necessary when a new threat emerges, but after 2 years you shouldn't still be in crisis response
1. What is your native language? 2. How old are you? 3. Do you post on Reddit?
Thanks in advance.
BTW, it's "doxed," not "doxxed."
TLDR watch these videos : https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2021/12/19/gros-partys-de-...
National Health institute released a timeline : https://inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donnees/ligne-du-temps
Following the summer vaccination campaign, cases were stable, vaccination was going well, higher risk locations and activities (gyms, bars, restaurants, etc.) had to up requirements of having a proof of vaccination, restrictions were slowly being lifted up to the point where bars and restaurants were allowed to run at full capacity provided patrons were seated, vaccinated and wearing a mask when walking around. On Nov 15th, they lifted even more restrictions.
https://www.lapresse.ca/covid-19/2021-11-15/les-assouplissem...
This removed the requirement for bars / restaurants to hold a visitor's registry, wearing a mask in public schools, and also allowed patrons to dance and sing karaoke. Nightclubs were allowed to reopen since now patrons didn't have to sit and could dance although wearing a mask at all times while inside the establishment and being vaccinated was still mandatory. I've seen snaps and stories showing quite the opposite about masks and I heard from a friend that he went to a place where they tried to verify his proof of vaccination with a powered off device...
Cases were slowly ramping up but still manageable, corporate xmas parties were booked and private gatherings were announced to be allowed up to 20 people.
On Dec 16th, government officials announced that cases were going back up and that they were monitoring the situation. Return to remote work if possible, restrict commercial capacity to 50%, limit dropped to 10 people for xmas private gatherings and that starting on monday dec. 20th, covid tests would be distributed for free in pharmacies. Also dance and karaoke would be forbidden in bars / restaurants.
https://www.lapresse.ca/covid-19/2021-12-16/explosion-des-ca...
https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/2021-12-16/vague-d-annulati...
Then this happened and made the news https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2021/12/19/gros-partys-de-...
Which led to this https://www.lapresse.ca/covid-19/2021-12-20/en-guerre-contre...
And we are waiting for more announcements on wednesday as Quebec has hit 5k new cases per day and they forecast a possible rise to 10k per day
As for the free tests, some pharmacies need you to book in advance and the system crashed yesterday after coming online and last I checked there was no availability in my area. I went to 2 pharmacies where you can walk-in and request it on a first come first served basis. They said they got about 100 each yesterday and today and they were gone within an hour of the store opening.