The way to interpret his argument is to imagine an alternate past history where Mathematica was open source from the beginning and how that would have lead to an inferior product. He wrote:
>[...] I think that it would not have been possible to create the Wolfram technology stack using a free and open-source model.
So instead of thinking they can just go ahead and open source what they have today and everything would be just fine, we need to consider how game theory would have played out in an alternate universe where they tried FOSS model from the beginning.
Maybe his argument is still flawed but to at least entertain his scenario, let's study other projects and compare:
- open source GIMP is considered very good -- but also is several years behind closed-source Adobe Photoshop in features
- OpenCAD, OpenSCAD not as full-featured as proprietary Autodesk, SolidWorks, etc
- LibreOffice has less features the MS Office
- Code::Blocks and Eclipse as IDE for C++ coding not as good as MS Visual Studio
- OpenStack less features than AWS
- SageMath has less symbolic computing features than Wolfram Mathematica
To counterbalance the above, we can try to identify open source projects that are equal or superior to proprietary solutions:
- LibOpus is superior algorithm to Fraunhofer FDK AAC
- Linux (server) is comparable or superior to MS Windows (Server).
- GCC, Clang comparable to Microsoft "cl.exe" compiler.
Is there a pattern to the above? It seems like a combination of :
- big complex software with lots of features
- GUI
... often means that open-source collaboration model falls behind the proprietary commercial offerings. Why?
So if Wolfram tried to open-source Mathematica from the beginning of its history, a different proprietary XYZ software may have outcompeted them. E.g. the salaried programmers working on today's Mathematica wouldn't have worked on the open-source Mathematica for free because they would have been at XYZ Corporation. In that alternate timeline, we'd complain today that "Mathematica isn't as good as XYZ"