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Comment by rpadovani | Hacker News Reader

> Will NATO come for let’s say Latvia or Lithuania?

I don't know about NATO, but I strongly hope that EU defends its territory integrity. And I am not sure Russia wants to find out either…

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Paradoxically, the USA seems more active in the current conflict over Ukraine than the rest of the EU. And it was Germany who blocked the delivery of NATO weapons to Ukraine.

That doesn't seem paradoxical at all, the US is the strongest global military power and the EU lives under its defense umbrella anyways

What does "the rest of the EU" mean here? It's not like the USA are a member.

I don't think that's paradoxical at all.

This is right in the EU's backyard. If it were to heat up they'd actually have to deal with things like refugees and the possibility of war spreading to their members. They probably also want to be very explicit about their (lack of) obligations in this case, I mean people are already acting as if this calls into question how steadfast they'll be in defense of eastern EU members.

We have two options. First, Putin is bluffing. This is what most people believe (and hope). In this case giving Ukraine more weapons won't hurt anyone. Option two is that he is really planning some offensive action this winter. In this case sending weapons to Ukraine could help in slowing the Russians down. It could also help in decimating their army - if they unmask as a ruthless aggressor, it is in the interest of the whole civilization, not just the EU, to limit their impact.

There are countless options.

Another option is that both the EU and Putin know Russia does not have the conventional strength to attack the EU, but does have the manpower to attack other unaligned countries. And so, the EU has decided to prioritize their other interests over standing up to Russia.

It's just our way of flipping the bird to Victoria Nuland for saying 'Fuck the EU!'

But don't take it too seriosly, that was long ago, now our brand new and most competent foreign affairs sock-puppet goes with the flow.

How EU will do this? NATO is very clear about not being able to defend Baltic countries, they just don't have sufficient militarily presence. Polish army is currently even to weak to protect Poland, maybe this will change in next 10 years, as there are significant investments into army and military industry planned, but not now.

EU would have to deploy immediately at least two heavily armed divisions to be able to protect Polish-Belarusian border (which is in reality Polish-Russian border and would be first attack direction to cut supply chains from Polans) and attack Kaliningrad, what is the key in Baltic countries defense.

Nothing happens in EU without Germany agreement, so the question is: will German army going to engage? Germany is busy cutting trade deal with China and starting Nord Stream 2 which would provide Russian gas for Germany, so the answer is clear.

The Polish army isn't meant to be able to defend Poland, it's meant to provide enough time for NATO to respond (which they're capable of within 72 hours). That, combined with the logistical challenges of a Russian invasion and the lack of motivation for the Russians to do so makes it very unlikely that they would attack.

More details on the logistical issues within the Russian army: https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-...

> Nothing happens in EU without Germany agreement

That's just not true. Even if Germany decides to not help, they couldn't stop individual countries, like France or Italy from helping.

NATO has more than enough military power to defend, as long as it has enough political will and freedom to act. I think that is what the debate is about.

Also, I would not underestimate Poland. The country spends 2.2% of its GDP on military and has been gradually increasing the expenditures further. Moreover, Poland has been making very major acquisitions of modern equipment and capabilities (something Ukraine is currently just dreaming of -- see one of my posts above) as separate budget lines. It is on the track to become one of the main military powers in the EU and is certainly a very credible power to resist Russia.

You forget about this country called France that has a better/bigger army than Germany, has nuclear weapons and likes to think of itself as equal and not subordinate to Germany in the EU.

NATO as a whole might not engage in such a war, but members of EU certainly can, even without NATO.

The combined firepower of France, Germany, Italy and Spain is not something Russia can handle by itself. So the question is would Russia gets backing from China and/or Turkey to start invading portions of the EU?

please stop reading russia today and sputnik. you sound just like russian propaganda

In russia today sputnik shocks You!

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