It's not the panacea we might have expected, but I think we all misunderstood vaccines from the get-go.
This assessment is nether particularly interesting nor at all unprecedented. If it ends up being with us indefinitely, then a COVID booster will simply be incorporated into the annual flu shot.
The fact it continues to spread is not evidence that it is doing "nothing" to stop the spread.
This comment: "The fact it continues to spread..."
You can't have both. Which is it?
We've had vaccines since 1798, this isn't rocket surgery.
There's a similar trend in masking data seen on covid19.healthdata.org. The authoritarian authorities say masks work great with no real world evidence behind that aggressively enforced statement. The actual graphs of data show no correlation between mask wearing and rate of infection in the general public when comparing state experiences. Personally I believe that's similar to the old iphone antenna problem where it provably worked great in the lab, but the general public insisted on holding it wrong such that the antenna did not work in practice for the vast majority of the general public. I find no conflict in abstract theoretical scenario lab tests showing a piece of cloth works, while at the same time the general public completely fouls up the real world implementation such that there's no discernable change in infection rates. What I can't explain is why people have been spending thousands of dollars for decades on asbestos removal gear, exotic aircraft paint respirators, virology research lab glove boxes, and all along all we've needed to prevent a fatal pandemic is a mere single strip of cloth; someone should inform OSHA.
If you follow the money, interesting things are seen that explain a lot.
Or, if we apply Occam's razor, a better explanation is adverse selection.
In areas with high vaccination rates and low vaccination rates, those prone to ignoring the problem (refusing to get vaccinated, refusing to get tested, and refusing to wear masks) are still going out and spreading the disease. In both high and low vaccination rate environments the careful are still not getting sick because they're being careful.
The statistics are crystal clear: of those in hospital, the unvaccinated are dramatically, dramatically overrepresented. 4X more likely to test positive, 4X more likely to be hospitalized, 10X more likely to die. [1] They're also dramatically overrepresented in the positive cases.
> There's a similar trend in masking data seen on covid19.healthdata.org.
[citation needed]
> The authoritarian authorities say masks work great with no real world evidence behind that aggressively enforced statement. The actual graphs of data show no correlation between mask wearing and rate of infection in the general public when comparing state experiences.
Except they do, see Figure 1. [2]
> What I can't explain is why people have been spending thousands of dollars for decades on asbestos removal gear, exotic aircraft paint respirators, virology research lab glove boxes, and all along all we've needed to prevent a fatal pandemic is a mere single strip of cloth; someone should inform OSHA.
This is also addressed in Figure 1. It clearly shows that while better gear is more protective, lower quality gear is still effective. Respirators for asbestos, paint and COVID are obviously different due to the nature of the material being blocked. COVID spreads by droplets - your goal is to catch them before they leave or enter your airway. Paints, your goal is to eliminate VOCs which are molecules - not virii. Asbestos your goal is to eliminate particulate. But of course, in paint shops and asbestos removal you're constantly exposed. This is not true of COVID masking.
> If you follow the money, interesting things are seen that explain a lot.
I'm not sure Big PPE is behind this one.
[1] https://www.statista.com/chart/25589/covid-19-infections-vac...
If you have a dual monitor system, its instructive to bring up a site like covid19.healthdata.org and put a state like Massachusetts on one monitor and perhaps Ohio on the other monitor.
In MA the vax rate is a 88% for one dose, and ICU beds needed has gone from 146 a month ago to 257 today a monthly growth rate of a a staggering 76%. If the number of ICU beds required in MA continues to double every month (very unlikely) then the entire population of MA will be in a ICU bed in merely 14 months.
In OH the vax rate is 61% for one dose, and ICU beds needed has gone from 716 a month ago to 891 today a monthly growth rate of 24%.
About a third of people in MA wear a mask as opposed to a quarter in OH, so we're told the growth rate is artificially smaller in MA than OH because they wear masks, so the situation is actually much worse.
As a simple linear regression, (76 - 24) / (88 - 66) shows a predictive model that for every one percent increase in vaccinations, there will be about 2.3 % GROWTH rate in ICU use. Not decline, but growth.
So as a predictive model, if 5% of the population of Ohio were convinced to get the vax, then the model predicts the ICU beds required in Ohio would be (2.3 * 5) which is an increase in the increase of ICU requirements of 11.5%.
Not if the kids are spreading it to the old, like their parents and grandparents.