Hacker News Reader

Comment by headmelted | Hacker News Reader

This is what panic looks like.

Given the virus is by most recent evidence assumed to be airborne (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-98-minutes-c...) it wouldn’t take much at this stage to cause the system to flood with cases.

If you’ve been vaccinated are you going to be fine? Probably.

If you haven’t? Shrug. We’ll find out in the next couple of weeks I guess.

The government knows that they now need another round of lockdowns but don’t have enough support among the public to do it, hence the desperate push for this as the next best thing.

The queues to get jabs in my neck of the woods have been massive, so maybe that’s a good sign. Not that it was fun standing in a big queue with that many strangers for hours.

I’d prefer to have an actual Omicron vaccine but hopefully winging it with this one works.

View on HN

> This is what panic looks like.

Imagine the Facebook posts when people start dropping after a vaccine shot, because the government suspended the wait times. They need vaccinations to look as safe as possible - this will not end well.

> [..] it wouldn’t take much at this stage to cause the system to flood with cases.

I'm not entirely sure Omicron is a bad thing. It's over-mutated to the point where it's not nearly as deadly as Delta and out-competes Delta. The virology researchers even predicted that Delta was essentially as bad as it was going to get (hence the effort for a Delta specific booster).

> The government knows that they now need another round of lockdowns but don’t have enough support among the public to do it, hence the desperate push for this as the next best thing.

Not much of a surprise when you're out partying whilst the laws you helped pass are convicting others.

> The queues to get jabs in my neck of the woods have been massive, so maybe that’s a good sign.

As long as the majority of people who intend to get one can get one, I think that's a success. I don't want to see the stick being used in the UK, only the carrot.

> I’d prefer to have an actual Omicron vaccine but hopefully winging it with this one works.

Speaking to people on the inside, they were still desperately trying to get a delta specific version out the door in time for boosters - and the Delta variant has been around for quite a while. Don't hold your breath at all on Omicron. Unless there is magically some low hanging fruit (all signs say there is not), then at best you're talking about something for mid next year.

> I'm not entirely sure Omicron is a bad thing. It's over-mutated to the point where it's not nearly as deadly as Delta

This is untrue, and is based on misinterpretations of the South Africa data. There are lots of reasons why it looks less lethal in SA, but omicron in other countries is looking about as lethal as delta, with increased transmission. Vaccination and boosters look to be protective against serious harm. In England the vast majority of people in ICUs at the moment are unvaccinated.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1471169712851673097?s...

"Prof Chris Whitty suggests idea that South African data shows omicron is milder is wrong.

"There's a danger that people have over-interpreted this, think it's not going to be a problem... I want to be clear, this is going to be a problem.""

There's also no evidence that Omicron is replacing Delta.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-two-epidemics-omicro...

> Early indications that the Omicron variant may be less mild will not stop a dangerous wave which could risk overwhelming hospitals, the chief medical officer has warned.

> Britain is now experiencing two separate Covid-19 epidemics with rates of the Delta variant high but stable while Omicron grows rapidly, according to Chris Whitty.

> This is untrue, and is based on misinterpretations of the South Africa data.

It's not untrue, from your iNews link:

> He said: “If the peak of this is twice as great, then halving of the size of the hospitalisation rate, you still end up in the same place. And this peak is going very fast.

So basically, he doesn't know. But he seems to agree that it is less deadly. The real question is whether it will play out as he says with hospitals becoming overwhelmed. I believe he is being overly cautious.

> Vaccination and boosters look to be protective against serious harm.

With >90% of the most at-risk category in the UK vaccinated, you would imagine harm would be minimized as well as it reasonably can be.

> In England the vast majority of people in ICUs at the moment are unvaccinated.

I am not sure there is yet evidence to back this up about the Omicron variant.

> There are lots of reasons why it looks less lethal in SA, but omicron in other countries is looking about as lethal as delta, with increased transmission.

Can you link me to a source proving that? The sources you linked to suggest it spreads more but is less lethal. My understanding was that the number of mutations the Omicron variant went under essentially made it way less deadly.

> There's also no evidence that Omicron is replacing Delta.

Eh, this is basic virology. We already saw the Alpha variant essentially die out because the Delta variant out-spread it. Survival of the fittest.

> Eh, this is basic virology. We already saw the Alpha variant essentially die out because the Delta variant out-spread it. Survival of the fittest.

To be fair, the consensus at this exact moment seems to be that it's not clear the extent to which it's replacing/outcompeting Delta or co-existing alongside it as an (effectively) separate virus in circulation.

Whitty actually addressed this from his podium the other night in saying that they're currently managing two pandemics - a Delta one that is holding steady in terms of numbers and an Omicron one that is rising exponentially by the day.

The concern (I would assume) is that Delta cases have not dropped markedly while Omicron ones are increasing, which suggests co-infection. Again, early data, so no-one should be surprised if we find out yet again that we've no idea what's actually going on.

2 jabs is iffy, 2 + booster seems like "probably fine". Hence the panic.

2 jabs is fine, its just you're about 20% more likely to get symptoms (assuming you are 18-50 and of good health). The issue is you're still going to have a week of feeling like shite. but you're much less likley to need hospital care

3 jabs gives you an 80-95% chance of not exhibiting symptoms. This is what most people expect of a vaccine. (frankly its what I had hoped that two jabs would provide. But I am naive )

There are many additional variables though. How much time since your last shot, which vaccine, how long between jabs, which variant of the virus you are exposed to, the state your immune system is in.

If you’ve had two jabs, spaced 3 weeks apart, last jab was 6 months ago, and you get exposed to omicron, it is a much worse scenario than “20% more likely to get symptoms”. So there is a rational push for boosters right now.

> So there is a rational push for boosters right now.

I very very much agree.

But what I am saying but failing to get across in a sensible way is this: A double jab will protect you from serious illness. so there really shouldn't be the narrative that double jabbed people have little to no protection.

> last jab was 6 months ago, and you get exposed to omicron, it is a much worse scenario

I do disagree slightly with this. Yes, old people (75+) who've had almost a year since the last jab will be more vulnerable. Boosters are very much needed to keep them out of hospital (just like the flu jab). But for the vast majority of the population, I am reasonably confident that 2 jabs will be enough to stop you having a really bad time. Sure you'll get symptoms, but it shouldn't be serious.

However I must stress that I have had the booster, and I would have rolled them out in july/august when they were approved for use. I would have not sat on the fence and waited, like the JVCI did.

In summary, I think we broadly agree, but down to my miss communication I have implied that boosters are not needed.

Yes, we mostly agree! I do diverge on the 6 months issue - there is a notable decline in efficacy. In the US, a majority of the people who were vaccinated got their second shot >6 months ago, and only ~16% have gotten a booster. Combine vaccine efficacy decline starting at ~5 months with omicron immune evasion, and that means a big winter wave. Even with protection from severe illness, if a lot of people are getting sick, it will mean a lot of severe illness (large denominator).

Can you provide sources for either of these claims? Neither of them match my understanding of the current data on omicron

https://e3.365dm.com/21/12/2048x1152/skynews-vaccine-covid_5...

from https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-scotland-isolation-rules...

2 jabs should be fine too. Especially if you had a huge gap between the two doses.

What's a "huge" gap?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com