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Comment by Jensson | Hacker News Reader

> huge predictor, if not the single biggest predictor, of wealth is still just whether or not your parents are wealthy, especially at the top.

If you count top 10% as wealthy, sure then you need to be wealthy to make it big. A kid with top 10% parents has everything they need to succeed and create a top company. A poor kid doesn't, true, but a poor kid in USA still has everything they need to get to top 10%, and then their kids has everything they need to become top 0.1%. So you are right, this process isn't perfect, but it works in 2 generations, which is still really good compared to historically.

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> a poor kid in USA still has everything they need to get to top 10%

As a poor kid who did this, this is an incredibly ignorant and out-of-touch statement. This is like the socioeconomic equivalent of that Verge PC build.

> a poor kid in USA still has everything they need to get to top 10%

Generally, after a lifetime of honest, hard work, you'll make it 1, maybe 2 tax brackets higher than your parents. To make it further than that you have to be especially talented, lucky, or both.

I just looked it up: as of 2016, 7.5% of kids born in the bottom quintile make it to the top quintile, so it is indeed possible, though quite rare. [1]

I think your basic sentiment is right, though you'd probably need to insert one more generation: a poor kid has everything they need to make it to the middle class and live a not-poor life, a middle class kid has everything they need to make it to the top 10%, and a top 10% kid has everything they need to become fabulously wealthy.

The poor -> middle class leap is probably more difficult than any of the others.

[1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/02/14/american...

> as of 2016, 7.5% of kids born in the bottom quintile make it to the top quintile, so it is indeed possible, though quite rare. [1]

Is 7.5% “quite rare”? That’s around (and between) the portion of the population who is left handed and the portion of the US population that has naturally blond hair, neither of which would I describe as “quite rare”.

The parent described the "top 10%" (chosen arbitrarily, I'm sure), and the only stats I could find described quintiles.

7.5% of the bottom 20% make it to the top 20%. In a perfectly fair and equitable society, you'd expect it to be 20%. I wouldn't call this "quite rare," though I would call this uncommon.

But what percentage of the bottom 10% do you think make it to the top 10%? It's probably even fewer.

And to go step further: I'm not convinced the "top 10%" actually has everything they need to become a billionaire. Zuckerberg's parents were both doctors, Bill Gate's dad co-founded a successful law firm, Musk's parents owned an emerald mine in South Africa. These folks almost certainly grew up in the top 5% of household income.

If you need to grow up as a child in a top 5% household to "have everything you need" to start a wildly successful company, what percentage of the bottom 5% make it to the top 5%?

I'll bet you it's indeed "quite rare."

What I keep wondering is why I should care if a multimillionaire becomes a billionaire.

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