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Comment by snowwrestler | Hacker News Reader

It’s a positive-sounding report but appropriately qualified with caveats that another ~2 weeks are needed to clarify whether the appearance of milder disease persists, or reflects a difference in how the disease progresses.

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>Just two more weeks

Oh sweet, we get to Wait Two Weeks again!

Yes, the world is in flux.

The best part about 2 weeks to flatten the curve is the first 2 years.

We did flatten the curve. Look at any graph of COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, and this becomes readily apparent.

Most places have let restrictions ebb and flow accordingly.

Nobody "flattened" anything. Places without restrictions had those exact ebbs and flows of "cases".

What places do you have in mind that had no large scale behavioral changes (govt-mandated or voluntary)?

Sweden is a good example, as are state based comparisons across the US. Especially when you look at timing of things like mask mandates in a certain area, where the case trajectory before and after mask mandates in one area looks no different. Especially when compared against differently timed mask mandates in other areas that tracked a near exact case curve.

Didn’t Sweden’s economy take a similar hit as its more restrictive neighbors, implying a pretty significant change in behavior?

I've certainly heard those accusations, but it doesn't really stand up on its own. The supply chain disruptions of the restrictions around it will impact it all the same, even among of a population that wasn't forced into lockdowns and other shutdowns.

Also, I want to clearly and strongly reject non-law enforced "change in behavior" as being any defense of government removals of freedom. It does not defend such attacks in ANY way whatsoever.

While in my other reply I express my doubt at "change in behavior" being the driver of any sort of economic impact similarities, say it was. In that case, what it would show is that overbearing government removals of freedoms to the extent that you can't even go out in public are not even needed to have that effect in behavior.

you can still ebb and flow at a lower magnitude

I live in Japan, there was no lockdown and the disease didn't get worst than any other countries that took very harsh measures. Given how restrictive those measures are in comparison to the epsilon effect they have, it's clear it's better to respect people rights instead of crushing them under some heavy-handed wishful thinking.

There was no lockdown? What was the thing we all saw during the Olympics?

They let something like 80,000 foreigners into the country for the Olympics. I'd say if there is an anti-lockdown that would be it. The virus surged during this period, and one of the hypothesis floating out there was that the voluntary lockdown suggestions were ignored due to the government holding the Olympics. The case numbers went down when they instituted the state of emergency again.

But that being said I'm not sure we fully understand why the virus didn't hit Japan as hard. The country does have a stronger mask wearing culture (where people actually fully cover their faces) and a homogenous genetic makeup.

To me, lockdown means you tell people they can’t do certain things or they have to do certain things a certain way. And that’s what happened during the Olympics.

Please peer into your the world is deterministic and here’s what a novel mutation of a two year old virus will look like crystal ball

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