The labor shortage is plenty real and is going to be for a long time.
We could massively expand immigration, but we won't.
We could massively expand immigration, but we won't.
Probably the same deal with quick serve. They already automate individual tasks as it makes sense, they aren't trying to automate the job.
Say we have all these artichoke picker people, they get replaced with machines. Those people can now do other work while the artichoke picking output remains the same.
Especially when transitioning from a low-skill job to a high-skill one.
If you think there's a big productivity slowdown now, then oh boy are you going to be surprised when you start massive retraining programs.
While importing cheap labour and working them hard is a road to prosperity - probably quite a good one for all involved - it is hard to see how there can be a pure labour shortage with that many people, that much wealth and that much history of advanced manufacturing.
There is probably an organisational problem here somewhere.
For example, when Orlando had a sudden influx of people move there from PR after Hurricane Maria: "we find that employment in Orlando increased, especially in construction and retail, and find positive aggregate labor market effects for non-Hispanic and less-educated workers. While we find that earnings for these workers decreased slightly in construction, this was balanced by earnings growth in retail and hospitality. These results are consistent with small negative impacts on earnings in sectors exposed to a labor supply shock, offset by positive effects in sectors impacted by an associated positive consumer demand shock."
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27718
Instead what you have is a sudden negative supply shock, due to the pandemic, while simultaneously having a demand shock for goods because of stimulus. Of course prices for the labor demanders will increase.
But that's not really relevant in thr current labor market... it seems clesr enough that we're way over at the other end of the scale.
We celebrate quickly giving citizenship to pro bball players (Enes Freedom, who btw I think he's awesome and congrats). But it's inaccessible for so many that would be net contributors to our country!
I firmly believe it's rooted in racism & the electoral benefits of Republicans rather than an actual policy/economic debate.
Doesn't help when one political party and their news media empire catastrophize and fear monger dangerous, gun toting, drug muling, cartel infested, caravans of chain migration invasions every October on the dot. But perhaps now I'm the one politicking ;)
right now there is a lack of this 'underclass' labor for farms and other intense, low pay industries. they can't function with covid restrictions on that non-U.S. citizen migrant labor pool. So they aren't stealing jobs they doing jobs that otherwise go unfilled [1]
your comment also just writes off an entire class of people and their contributions. America is built on the skill & labor of the 'underclass' and historically there has been movement up the economic ladder.
This article and top comment points out that this economic improvement is currently lopsided against low income workers who are producing the net productivity gain for the owners/corps.
Housing shortage doesn't have anything to do with immigration. But that's a separate and worthy policy change to discuss as well.
There is a lot of research that shows current undocumented immigrants are a net benefit to the US purely economically speaking. Plenty of sources here [2]. I'm agreeing with parent comment in it would also solve our population growth & entitlement problems.
another interesting point in this artificial distinction between skill and unskilled: there is a talk on HN of tech corporations exploiting the high skilled tech migrants which you seem to advocate for.
using the really harsh immigration laws - for instance can't legally be unemployed or between jobs - to get lower than market price labor at the expense of US citizens on this board. Not as bad as holding passports but it is effective
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/economy/foreign-...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_illegal_imm...
It does if immigrants want to live in housing. (And I say that as someone who is overall quite pro-immigration.)
Unless you are retired or a recepient of passive income chances are that if housing in an area is very cheap, you won't be able to afford it. That is the reason prices got so low is a lack of either income generation or demand from those well enough off (vacation homes do not need to be within commuting 'distance-factored-as-time').
American poet Emma Lazarus wrote “The New Colossus,” which now hangs in bronze in the Statue of Liberty’s base. The end of the sonnet goes:
“Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…”
America remains competitive by keeping the door open.
If we slam the door shut, we could be missing out on the next Steve Jobs.
We already have millions of tired, poor and huddled masses. Drive down the street in San Fran, LA, Philidelphia or virtually any other big city in America and you'll see their tents on the sidewalks. The idea that its somehow a good idea, let alone necessary, to import millions of poor, unskilled foreign laborers while we have millions of poor Americans already here is wrong and offensive. The somewhat widespread idea that opposing immigration is racist rather than a show of support for the millions of poor Americans we are allowing to languish is similarly offensive.