China and Russia are ramping up on military presence, maneuvers, and armament. Our top businesses are constantly under attack by nation state actors. I've witnessed a few attacks directly.
I'd be willing to bet that there will be some action taken in Ukraine and Taiwan within the decade, possibly simultaneously.
But say the US really did arm Taiwan with first and second strike capabilities, I don't even think the US could stomach the reaction to that. How long could they hold out if embargoed by the PRC?
Because simply PRC has never been deterred by nukes over sovereignty issues. It has fought with nuclear US, USSR and India over core interests less interest than TW. Former two while PRC wasn't nuclear power herself.
Also because TW is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC spies, and TW even hinting nuclearizing gives PRC legitimate casus belli to go to war with relatively few consequences due to proliferation concerns. Not to mention US would be arming weapons of mass destruction to CCP's antagonist in domestic Chinese civil war. PRC would likely treat any nuclear US on TW's part as direct US nuclear launch. If it's going to trade Taipei for Shanghai, it's going to make sure US loses NYC as well for participating.
Reality is nuclear deterrence doesn't actually deter when core security interests are involved, i.e. USSR HAD nukes on Cuba during the crisis and US was still willing to invade.
Maybe they didn’t care about nukes in the 50’s and 60’s because they were just in the midst of war and suffering, and Mao was a fervent ideologue.
Plus Taiwan isn’t any material threat to the mainland. It’s not a core security concern, as seen by the mainlands transformation from 1970-now. If it was, and the US was using it to choke off and destroy the CCP - it would have done so decades ago.
I think their whole Taiwan thing is trash and we need to call their bluff on it. Arm all 3 and declare defensive use.
Possibly month.