Crypto unlikely to survive as investment if unregulated, SEC chairman says
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EDIT: If you steal my gold or other metal store of value, I can pursue you in court and recover my loss (either the actual materials lost or fiat value). If you steal my single named security, I can pursue you in court and recover my loss (or the clearinghouse will reverse the transaction). Crypto cannot be both an investment accessible to everyone, governed by nation state regulators, and a wild west where you can lose everything at a drop of a hat due to an opsec slip and there is no recourse. That is incompatible with the law.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/over-10-billion-lost-to-defi... (Criminals have made off with over $10 billion in ‘DeFi’ scams and thefts this year) <-- This won't fly with the folks who write and enforce the law. Their job is to protect people (investors!) from the folks who believe those who owns the keys and crypto owns the property regardless of how it was obtained.
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/regecg.htm
[2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/supmanual/cch/efta....
[3] https://www.businessinsider.com/huobi-global-warrant-seeks-1... (A Coinbase user lost $11.6 million in under 10 minutes after falling for a fake-notification scam, the US attorney's office said)
If someone somehow lost 11.6M due to credit card fraud, I seriously doubt they'd get their money back.
Fascinating…
Confidence in the banking system via state insurance was added retroactively
Don’t pretend that came organically, the banks thought it would be fun too
I want to be open minded and am really trying hard to "stay curious" in this technology domain. Please share any points I would've missed about the benefits of crypto, besides the ability to evade government controls around value transfer or storage and that there is no ability to reverse fraudulent transfers (to the benefit of billions of dollars in theft). I will readily admit it has benefits for folks in places like Venezuela, Turkey, or anywhere else with bad faith fiscal and monetary policy, but not the world as a whole. I know of people in Venezuela who are attempting to operate outside of the dysfunctional financial system, and they use Zelle [1]!
Banks state backed insurance came retroactively and it took decades for people to feel confidence in that system and is one of several factors in why the customer experience has things you like. You can still find a sliver of society that doesn't trust banks. That confidence and transaction reversibility isnt inherent to banks, and the lack of these redundancies isnt inherent to crypto.
Can you respond to that specifically?
I don’t believe it’s necessary to pander to fringe groups, just as I wouldn’t entertain the concerns of sovereign citizens and similar folks “off the reservation.” Financial and banking regulations in developed countries (including the US) are robust, and arguably are sufficient to provide a firm safety net for participants in the system.
No need to address my other points.
I just use it and it works for what I want, and yeah for me it is faster and cheaper and better due to the lack of transaction size limits
https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/other-topics/legal-pol...
However, most losses in crypto are not happening from custodial exchanges, but dAPPs that get hacked... or phishing targeting folks that have custody of their own private keys.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102#:~:text=E....
That article uses the term hoarding but don't be fooled they made holding any relevant amount of gold for investment illegal. You were still allowed to have gold necklaces and the like though
I would say that the two comments together point towards a complex relationship between governments and the wealth of it’s citizens.
Also, I'm not sure if it is an apples-to-apples comparison. Back then the main money of the society was associated to gold. There is no such link today. I.e. the value of USD isn't associated to BTC. The government had a existential need to reduce gold transactions. You can argue the government is threatened by crypto etc. but like I said it's not apples-to-apples.
Please do not abbreviate words like this. It makes the text harder to read.
But agreed, what you've described is the most-likely outcome.
I mean those are the same reasons we have to ban pyramid schemes for example - we don't want to have a lot of losers (even if they are dumb losers who entered the scheme on purpose) and unethical now wealthy winners.
I think people should be allowed to choose. If they don't want regulation then fine.
People voted for and happily accepted the policies that created the inflation. Inflation is a consequence of Congress allocates trillions of dollars in spending that can only be funded by debt. Whether the Federal Reserve converting that debt into money is merely the only way the elected government can receive the money it desires without collapsing the economy.
who says? that premise seems to operate on the idea that justice only works on stuff that can be returned to its previous state.
if anything crypto has proven that big heists don't pay off because naughty wallets get immediately blacklisted by exchanges.
It's also rather difficult to actually recover losses in court in a civil case unless you're rich enough/the amount at stake is large enough to eat the losses in court fees/collections measures and still make a profit (winning a judgement does nothing if the losing party simply refuses to pay, at which point you have to engage the Sherrif/place liens on property/hire collections agencies/etc). Whether it should be that way or not, that's the reality. These same folks allow that system as well.
I'm more inclined to think the regulators will go the way of rich/those who make campaign contributions/those who can lobby. I wish we didn't live in that world, but we do. The evidence that we do has been unmistakable since 2008. So some of the scammier micro-cap coins might get regulated out of existence, but with Wall St taking an interest and plenty of wealthy people on board, crypto as a whole is going to stick around IMO.
Stolen property is stolen property. Not all stolen property is recoverable. Even stolen property with a paper trail may not be recoverable (ask Bernie Madoff fraud victims who have expensive lawyers) or may not be compensate-able. Cars, bikes, phones, etc. get stolen every day. If I meet someone to buy something for $1000 cash and they just run off with it, I've little recourse.
I'm a crypto proponent, and I'm pretty pro regulation.
The reason is because integrating current legal systems with crypto actually makes it more powerful and valuable. Existing legal frameworks can be used to link a purely digital world to the physical world; ex. for us to reliably trade tokens in physical assets (house, painting), we need courts and systems we can leverage for confidence and rule of law.
Therein lies a tradeoff and irony, by mixing such systems. You might say "just build it on a centralized system", and in an ideal world that would be great. The problem is that bureaucracy and politicization of systems make it impossible for innovation to occur: simply look at the friction facing car sharing (Uber), online betting/gambling, housing sharing (Airbnb), etc. Those things can't be the wild west, but society is clearly better off and wants those services.
I suspect some jurisdictions will be friendlier to crypto and more willing to explore those spaces. Innovation will flock there, and eventually everyone else will just follow.
The percentage of crypto in the world portfolio can't grow forever though. Once it reaches its limit, the harsh reality will very slowly start to settle in. Crypto doesn't generate any value (unlike stocks, bonds, real estate) and doesn't have any intrinsic value (unlike gold). Its value is entirely based on faith.
The best case scenario would be growth proportional to total wealth growth. But why hold something more risky and with lower returns compared to stocks?
There are crypto networks that does betting. The natural next thing is insurance, which can be considered a special case of betting.
The "harsh" truth might very well be, that a lot of industries that have been governed by priviliged organisations will turn into algorithmically governed DAOs.
A lot of people in the financial sector will probably loose their job, as cheaper alternatives for financial products will occur in self regulated algorithmically governed systems.
The "bitcoin is the crypto definition" view should be abandoned. And it should be understood that crypto means algoritgmically governed economies for now. Later it will be algorithmic governance.
Ie. Cryptos market cap is at least equal to the financial sector. And probably we are only scratching the surface with that statement.
Also, inflation is simply not a problem. 2.5% on average over the last 20 years, and almost no volatility. Bitcoin will never achieve that level of volatility because there's no central authority which directs its value.
Gold and the USD were very volatile assets in the beginning. Only recently has the USD become stable.
You don't need a central authority to direct the value.
Gold has a high volatility and Bitcoin even higher.
It's never just pure mathematics. You always have a human layer on top, and that means that there is an attack surface for self-interested people to take advantage of others. The purpose of regulation is to minimize the damage those people can do.
I suppose in a future where all the humans are extinct, and monolithic AI's rule the planet, your comment would hold more water.
Lots of people losing lots of money in your neighborhood is bad. A good number of people winning the lottery by defrauding others is bad, they make for shitty neighbors.
One financially questionable scheme at a time please.
Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-my...
You can't reason about Tether's relative value/ratio to BTC/ETH in a world where BTC and ETH are traded against USDT.
The only reason our regulatory masters every say this shit is because they want a piece of the pie for themselves. You see it in every industry where they're not getting a cut.... oh gambling very very bad! Regulate the hell out of it and now it's fine to have sports betting and all sorts of other "sin" pleasures available.
Then there's always this "guarantee" that the tax dollars will go to the children except they pull the rug out on other money that was previously going there.
That's the point. I'm not sure why people think that crypto is just going to be allowed to exist outside of government control. Of course government is going to want to get their hands in it. And while the technology might be resistant to that, there are still other things the government can do, just like they do with fiat, to gain control of crypto. For example, putting you in jail I you don't do what they want. Exactly like they do with taxes in the US.
In other words, crypto changes absolutely nothing when it comes to the relationship the government has with your money. If the government wants your money and you don't give it to them, you go to jail. Crypto isn't going to change that.
When was the last time TV’s went up in value by thousands of times, creating tons of millionaires and billionaires, and advertised itself as a money replacement? The government isn’t stupid when it comes to collecting your money.
1. Initial Exchange Offerings (IEO) are specifically excluding US participants, and sometimes Canada and China based participants.
2. The US regulations are inadequate for legitimate smaller companies that want to bootstrap, requiring time-consuming legal applications to the SEC that may not get final approval - not a trend really, but more of a reinforced reality.
It makes more sense for an entrepreneur to bootstrap a company outside the US and avoid any US touchpoints, if you want to bypass the mechanics of VC capitalization, SEC friction and address a market need that will not result in a unicorn.
Cheers
A counter argument could be that Crypto is regulation.
Crypto economies encode all sorts of incentive structures to promote an inhibit various behaviors of its users.
The only difference is that these regulations are not governed by the elected government but by algorithms.
And yes, some modern networks have included mechanisms for handling financial stability. Eg. the Maker coin that have a lever for shutting everything down in case of an emergency.
Regulations would probably also hit, eg., in-game economies, that are essentially the same as crypto economies, just them being controlled by a central agent.
Essentially it would mean a ban on ... platform?
Guy In Charge Of Regulation Says Regulation Is Good
...
This is kind of philosophically interesting in light of Giorgio Agamben's discussion of sovereignty and law, in which the prime act of the sovereign is to enact the "ban", i.e. deciding who or what is excluded from the law, which is itself still a status in relation to the law, specifically one of exclusion. So people who trade crypto can be unregulated in the sense of gray area, yet-undecided legality, or they can be "unregulated" in the sense of "explicitly excluded from the legal realm", banned (abandoned), removed from any sort of legal relationship with the state. The USA isn't China, where the idea of someone being "unpersoned" for trading crypto seems like an act that the state could choose to make, but that's the sort of thing I thought would make a good joke.
But if we look at other sorts of more complex financial instruments, the sort of thing that's inaccessible to an average citizen, then why are they protected by the state as well? The obvious answer would be "well, banks invest in complex financial instruments, and the state wants banks to be protected". But regulating financial instruments isn't necessarily the only way of ensuring that the banks' service to their customers remains stable, it's just one possible path.
2. They mock you
3. They fight you <- You are here
4. You win!
He doesn't have to deal with alienating all the crypto boys and girls.
And there are millions of them! Given that every election is won and lost by a couple of % points give or take...
What will happen is an implosion first and foremost, only once that happens the public will be calling for congressional hearings.
Get ready to see Saylor, Musk, Armstrong, Dorsey going to DC, but only after the bust. Not before.
Every voter is a single issue voter.
And the single issue is : "My net worth"