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> You're right that Japan is a great example of how this strategy doesn't work as well for people locked in to stagnating economies.

that's why you don't invest in a single region. A globally diversified portfolio (which, to be fair, is more difficult to achieve for people in some nations that's not the west) is what's required to get the market returns.

> That index is up over 25 years. You'd be even better off if you were buying during the bear periods. AND you're not including dividend reinvestment.

You, on the other hand, are not including inflation...

Yeah I meant 1989 to 2012. FTSE10 is flat from 1999 to 2021 as well.

Sure. You can cherry pick a time period in any index that would be bad. That's why the 4 percent rule only works for most retirement historical starting years, and why some people choose to work towards a more conservative 3 percent withdrawal rate.

Retirement always was and will continue to be a risk that depends both on how much you've saved and how well the economy will continue to function and grow once you're no longer working. Like all things in life, nothing is certain.