- 80% of the population have a optimism bias, 10% doesn't have a systematic optimism bias one way or the another, and 10% have a pessimistic outlook. (For example, the pessimist sees the future as worse than the present and past, or overestimates negative outcomes.)
- The optimism outlook is a u-curve shape: high in young ages, drops in mid-life (the bottom of the U shape), then climbs again in older populations. How do we explain this? We don't know, but there are some theories e.g. mid-life can be a stressful time for many people.
- An optimism bias is good for people's mental health and physical health; optimists live longer.
- Espen Fadnes, a Freefall professional, considers himself an optimist. He has done about 8000 jumps and never worries about the danger when doing during a freefall down a mountain. It's about being in the moment, like forced meditation. It doesn't mean he make mistakes - he's made lots of them, but learns from them.
- Pessimism can make some people work through lots of scenarios as a way of anticipating events and preparing for them i.e. stop those events from happening, manage the associated anxiety and take effective action. Also referred as 'defensive pessimism'.
- The Pessimist is less likely to be surprised or disappointed when things go wrong (because they anticipated different scenarios).
- There are nuances in different outlooks and it's too simplistic to say optimists do better.
- Are there cultural differences between countries? Can cultural norms particular to a country change our outlook? More research is needed.
- Germany vs USA: a German who has lived in the USA reflects on the cultural differences between the countries.
In conclusion, we are probably all a mixture of the optimist and pessimist to varying proportions, and dependent on the situation and the cultural norms where we live.
There is much more in the programme - it's a very stimulating listen.