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Comment by GDC7 | Hacker News Reader

> The estimated percentage of the US population that died to the 1918 flu is 0.64% (using the estimate of 675k from the 1918 flu) vs 0.23% for COVID so far (eg 770k US deaths)

1) 675k in 1918? make it 1M, perhaps more. Also every COVID death is a COVID death, a flu death back then could be ascribed to anything. People say Nigeria and Brazil and India COVID figures aren't reliable, how is 1918 US stats reliable?

2) But the most important statistic is number of years trimmed off the life of every victim. 1918 flu trimmed as many years as the WW1, perhaps more as it attacked the same cohort. How many months is COVID trimming off the lives of people who perish?

In 99% of instances between 12 and 48

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The most important thing here is that we're still in the middle of the COVID pandemic and don't know quite a bit about it whereas the Spanish flu has ended. We don't, for example, know about the longterm effects of COVID and whether it reduces life expectancy of individuals, especially those that were hospitalized.

The COVID death rates do skew heavily towards those older, but the hospitalization rates are less skewed and if we are no longer able to provide healthcare for those who have severe cases, then the overall death rate will be less skewed. There have been multiple instances of healthcare facilities getting overwhelmed and much of public policy has been oriented around ensuring there is enough healthcare capacity to handle COVID cases + everyone else that needs to go to the hospital. The fact that there is a very real risk of not being able to receive emergency medical care because of this pandemic, especially during the surges prior to widespread vaccination, underscores that the pandemic response isn't just a product of anxiety.

All those problems were present in 1957 flu epidemic, the 1968/69 epidemic the 1977/79 flu epidemic

People were just less anxious and depressed back then, especially according to recorded stats the most severe was the 68/69 it was basically the peak of huge human gathering, between marches, students protests, Woodstock, Summer of love, Beatlemania, surf culture. In short nobody gave a darn about the flu.

It seems to me, people nowadays are more concerned with existing that living, and somehow have convinced themselves to hold out long enough and they'd be able to reach immortality.

it's like they don't know that sooner or later they'd die anyway and that the secret is to live in the moment and enjoy life , stumbling on their way to the grave with a smile on their face due to the fun they had along the way.

> All those problems were present in 1957 flu epidemic, the 1968/69 epidemic the 1977/79 flu epidemic

Those were all influenza A sub-types viruses which we've had experience with. The closest we've come to COVID is SARS/MERS both of which had significantly high case fatality rates (~10% for SARS, 33% for MERS), but neither of those resulted in a pandemic of the same scale. Even then, early COVID symptoms puzzled doctors and there is now mounting evidence that it isn't a pulmonary disease but a cardiovascular one so its long term effects aren't clear. At the start it wasn't even clear we'd develop a successful vaccine for COVID, whereas we've had plenty of experience with vaccines for influenza A subtypes.

> it's like they don't know that sooner or later they'd die anyway and that the secret is to live in the moment and enjoy life , stumbling on their way to the grave with a smile on their face due to the fun they had along the way.

Sure, some people need to let up a little and accept that the risk of death is inherent in life. But most people are and have been figuring out what level of risk is acceptable to them given a novel threat to them where the risk is uncertain.

> Those were all influenza A sub-types viruses which we've had experience with.

Let's be serious. Most doctors back then couldn't tell the flu from a coronavirus, and it was probably for the better.

You are taking the present-day degree of information and discounting it back at a much too generous rate.

People, even doctors, were all but alarmed in those years of flu epidemic, even though people died, and young people at that (the flu is a notorious killer of babies and young people)

They were not alarmed because in the great scheme of things nobody died. Most importantly nobody or almost nobody they knew died, so the process of extrapolation and panic didn't start, because those people perceived stuff which didn't happen in their circle of acquiantaces as not relevant to them, which is true even today, but we forgot about it.

You're absolutely right with the last sentence.

Nobody remembers the flu seasons and want to treat Corona differently. Which makes zero sense when the vaccines are now in effect.

And as long as we get bombarded with Corona news on a daily basis, there will be no significant change in people's attitude.

You can make any argument if you invent your own facts.

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