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Comment by adam_arthur | Hacker News Reader

While it's pretty obvious that many manufacturers are coming out with their own EVs, there seems to be something of a bubble that isn't paying attention or totally ignores this.

It will be interesting to see how the EV space evolves once there are mass amounts of competitor vehicles available/on the road.

Specifically interesting to see how it affects valuations for these companies.

I suspect Tesla's growth rate will slow considerably once there are comparably priced options from mainstream brands. E.g. F-150 vs Cybertruck. Or even a car from Apple, though that's many years out.

How obvious does the inevitability have to be to start denting valuations?

There's still the self driving story, but it does not appear they've made material progress on the hardest 20% of it. Most brands will have autonomous highway driving without much issue, and that's where 80% of the value is anyway. And likely Google will beat them to the punch on the taxi side.

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>E.g. F-150 vs Cybertruck.

I'm in Texas, and there are stereotype supporting large number of truck owners around. Of the ones I've spoken to about Cybertruck, not one of them are interested in the body. People like how their Fords/Dodge/Chevy trucks look, so taking the design so far away from the norm just seems like an odd decision. Worse than the original Prius design.

The original Prius design was very conventional: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1st-Toyota-Prius.jpg

The second generation is the well-known streamlined shape: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2008_Toyota_Prius_(N...

(I think the shape was probably not a mistake on Toyota's part. A lot of people were buying them partly because they wanted other people to know they had them, and the shape indicated this very clearly.)

Maybe I have the wrong car model. What was the one with the odd shape with the rear wheels covered, etc?

Honda Insight, probably.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:HondaInsight.jpg

Man, it's a good thing I'm not a betting person. I would have bet it was the Prius. phew. Thanks for setting me straight

Honda Insight?

That’s what everyone says now. I think it’ll be a different story once there are cyber trucks on the road for everyone to see.

I can't understand the deal with the electric F150 or almost any other modern pickup. They all have full sized 4 door interiors now, so as the truck has gotten bigger, the truck bed (the actually useful part that distinguishes a truck from a car) has gotten smaller. They are usually under 5.5 feet now, so there's many types of furniture you can't really move in them, which you could move in older, smaller pickups. Any idea? It kills the electric F150's attraction as far as I'm concerned. A 2-door model with those little vestigial jump seats behind the main seats and a longer bed would be a lot more useful.

I think there is a reasonable argument to make that (many) pickup trucks are purchased for aesthetics and the "usefulness" of them as trucks is largely irrelevant. As one friend pointed out, a work truck should be expected to be dirty and any truck that isn't dirty is just meant for show

Useful as a truck, yes, but now you have to buy a second vehicle to haul the family. Crew cab pickups are basically minivans in that they aren’t great at anything but acceptable for alot of things. I have a 2018 F150 crew with the longer bed, I’ve towed trailers, hauled furniture and equipment for friends and family, taken it out for a nice meal and gotten it muddy as hell off road. If I’m intentional about it i can get low 20’s mpg but rarely drive it more than 50 miles. I haven’t commuted for work in four years.

That's why you're seeing things like the extended bed options of the new tailgate designs. Also, most people don't need to carry 6'+ items. They do need to take the ankle biters along and maybe haul some stuff in the back. The trade off seems to be accepted going by number of units sold. If you keep the 6' bed plus the comfy backseats as you've mentioned, it no longer fits in standard garages.

> hey do need to take the ankle biters along and maybe haul some stuff in the back.

But, that is why they have SUV's and minivans I thought. It is only now sort of sinking in that pickups are no longer used much as work vehicles. Yes I agree about the excessive length keeping the crew cab and long bed. In fact I think the current F150 is already too big. So that's why I miss the old 2-door style with the long bed. I mean what is next, a Miata-like sportster with 3 rows of bench seats?

> I mean what is next, a Miata-like sportster with 3 rows of bench seats?

That is essentially what most CUVs are wishing they were these days. Outside of a Porsche Macan - most don’t really make it work.

Smaller truck bed still allows for carrying/hauling things larger than the truck compared to an enclosed SUV. Besides, when it's time to move, do you call your friend with an SUV/crossover, or do you call the friend with a truck?

You mean the truck bed was never more than a styling accent? Say it ain't so! All the people that need it have long figured out they would rather use a van.

I'm curious as well, though I am slightly more bullish on Tesla. I chose one after being a lifelong BMW owner and having no interest in an electric, it was after seeing how little car I could get for 50k that had me go check out a friend's Model 3, and being very impressed. Cost of ownership is considerably less than comparable cars so far, and I've had a couple minor issues, similar to some BMWs I've had.

I agree overall fit and finish trails the luxury brands, but looking at what 70k gets you from audi is a joke compared to tesla. Clearly the other manufacturers are quite a ways behind in both battery tech and autopilot tech. If I had a 100k to spend on a car, I might pick the Porsche electric, but certainly everything else seems to fall far short of a Model 3 in that price range and I'm not aware of anything catching up soon.

I don't want to diminish Tesla's achievements.

They are well ahead in many respects, and clearly have the edge for now. But it's inevitable that the market will be flooded with roughly equivalent EVs in the next few years.

Ford was dominant in ICE for awhile too. Being a leader affords you additional margin and runway, but very hard to believe it will be lasting.

Look at the Rivian and F-150 for comparable cars. I believe the range may be slightly less, but keep in mind, Tesla still buys most of its batteries from Panasonic. They aren't super proprietary tech that's fully manufacture in-house, though I'm sure they had a hand in the design etc.

Lucid has more range than a Tesla I believe, though is more expensive. EV is in some ways easier than ICE, due to fewer moving parts. But certainly a totally different skill/tech. There are many more new EV startups than there were for ICE at least.

I do agree that self driving can be a strong differentiator if it improves more. In some ways improving it's capabilities makes it more dangerous until it passes the "no need to pay attention" threshold. E.g. the better it is the less humans will pay attention, so there needs to be close to zero critical faults for people to safely rely on it.

From the examples I've seen, the self driving seems very far off from this level when city driving. But not speaking from personal experience. And highway seems like a mostly easy and contained problem, that is unlikely to be a differentiator for long. Most new cars have auto-follow and lanekeeping already which gives you 90% of the benefit in the highway context.

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