Tracking Covid-19 variant B.1.1.529
bnonews.com
bnonews.com
I don’t dismiss what they have to say entirely, they have expertise and they don’t publish wrong facts. But they are sort of like the Economist magazine. You know what they’ll say before you read it.
Growing up on cartoons has conditioned me to trust talking animals, but I think she's probably right about the risks. The variants have shown no meaningful ability to change what the vaccines target.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/26/europe-s-first-reported-...
Thread by website dev: https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1464223178776059919
It seems likely that people are overinterpreting the graph that's been going around. We just don't know at this point. There's not much that the average person can do anyway, besides getting vaxxed, wearing a mask, and maybe not traveling internationally.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/146401292663384064...
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/mar/25/the-rules-of-c...
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/AdamJKucharski/status/14640129266...
There are some protein/spike characteristics of this variant which alarm scientists who think it might evade vax-generated antibodies better--i.e. alpha/delta-targeting vax antibodies may provide less resistance to this one.
So on the one hand it //could be// worse than Delta but I am personally waiting for more data to flow out (esp. beyond SA).
Numbers this early can be very misleading, but anecdotes have cropped up about infections occurring from one hotel room to another, possibly through the HVAC system, which is not a durability trick that previous variants were believed to have.
My understanding is that this virus has a mutated spike protein, i.e. a different "outside shell". This spike protein is what gives the virus its ability to attach to human cells, and also what most vaccines "expose" to your immune system to teach it how to recognize COVID-19.
The difference in this variant's spike protein might have effect, among other things, on the ability of the immune system of a person that has been vaccinated to recognize the virus, so there's potential for a much decreased response/efficacy of the vaccines. However this is pure speculation at this point.
Update: earlier this year it aws speculated that the beta mutation might have increased infectivity and/or the ability to better elude the immune response; that variant eventually died out, and delta is now the prevalent one. It might be a similar case, but it's hard to tell yet, and it's of course better to err on the side of caution.
It would be a small chance for this to be completely random.
South Africa has ~3M reported cases (~1.2% of global) and ~60M people (~.7% of global).
"Rapid viral evolution has been described in immunosuppressed patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Choi et al. described an immunosuppressed patient with antiphospholipid syndrome who was hospitalized in August 2020 and treated with anticoagulants, glucocorticoids, cyclophosphamide, intermittent rituximab, and eculizumab.2 During 152 days of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection in this patient, the investigators identified 31 substitutions and three deletions in genome sequences. Twelve spike mutations were found, including seven in a segment of the receptor-binding domain consisting of 24 amino acids, some at sites linked to immune evasion (478, 484, and 493).6,7 The patient eventually died of severe Covid-19–related pneumonia. "
As to is it worse (i.e. more contagious, more deadly, increased risk of hospitalised) than the current Delta variant I think it is too early to say with any confidence.
It does have a large number of mutations. There is a theory being bounced around that the rapid decline in cases in Japan might be due to the virus there having mutated itself out of the ability to copy itself correctly so what is still spreading is falling apart. We can hope for something similar with this variant but it's just that, hope, for now.
The early data is always not very reliable, there are some big effects that can skew the data and you don't have many data points yet at that point. There is also no lab work done yet, where you'd directly examine the properties of a variant.
This very well could be worse than delta, but it also might not be. It looks more concerning than any variant we've seen since Delta, but we simply don't have hard data that early.
the ELI5 is that it's expanding really fast, and it is probably at least somewhat resistant to our immune system's first line of defenses that are formed from vaccination or a prior infection. the details on all of those points are very much in flux still, so be aware that the story could change as we learn more.
in more detail:
the biggest piece of worrying evidence is that it's growing as a proportion of cases in south africa at such an intensely fast rate that it's outcompeting the delta variant as though it isn't even there, which means it's far more transmissible than any other variant.
as far as i know, there isn't any information on whether it has higher lethality compared to delta, but my hunch is that it does.
the reason why i think it will end up having increased lethality is that it appears to have a complex of mutations that are associated with resistance to antibodies, likely including those generated by vaccination. that will make it take longer for the immune system to form an effective response to infection, allowing the virus to replicate rampantly and cause organ damage for longer.
keep in mind every other variant has also exhibited this property at least to a small amount, and in most cases, regardless of vaccination, our bodies are still able to clear the infection.
the issue is that this time around, the variant doesn't have just one or two tropisms associated with lower antibody binding efficiency, but perhaps a couple dozen. so, it'll likely be more effective at reinfecting people who have already had covid, too. and even though the variant may be "vaccine resistant", i'd bet that vaccinated people will still fare better than unvaccinated people. unfortunately, our antibody therapies probably won't be as helpful at saving people who are hospitalized.
but, our antiviral therapies (including those still in development) shouldn't be any less effective against this variant, which is a very faint silver lining.
in conclusion: buckle up, we're probably in for a rough ride.
OTOH - cases in SA were very low, so we would see this sort of growth of a variant very quickly just due to founder effects without anything nefarious going on.
Delta arrived when the background number of cases was much higher so it took longer to become a high proportion of cases.
Sure, the testing infrastructure is not as good as in a developed country, but it has many orders of magnitude more capacity than the current case rate.
If testing is targeted toward regions of higher interest and likelihood, then test positivity should skyrocket out of proportion to actual positives. (I'm not sure what the case is for South Africa.)
Using deaths as a lagging indicator of cases, South Africa reports about a 3% CFR (based on reported cases and deaths), as opposed to about 2% for the US. This would suggest a somewhat lower testing prevalence in ZA, by about a third, but not an especially bad record. This does assume that Covid deaths are being accurately assessed and reported. Total excess mortality is the usual check for that.
My read is that ZA's testing infrastructure is reasonably good, and that the B.1.1.539 variant's growth is extraordinary.
I'm relying on Worldometers data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-afri...
Can anyone ELI5 how this is working?
If the Covid #s SA is reporting are accurate, the entire country is only at around ~2.5k cases per day.
Since Delta has an R0 between 6-7, for this to be outcompeting it so substantially, it would need to have an R0 of 8-9 (if not higher) -- at which point it would be almost as contagious as Measles. For it to be this contagious, wouldn't there already HAVE to be ~10k+ cases per day in SA?
The original Covid had an incubation period of 5.4 days. Delta dropped to 4.
If this has been around for weeks, with an incubation period of 4 days, shouldn't this have already infected close to ~100k people? And shouldn't there be 10s of thousands of infections per day?
To be fair, the growth rate South Africa IS reporting is 10x in 4 days. If that trend continues for even three weeks, then it would infect the entire country...
Does anyone know how reliable South Africa's #s are?
This is what I was going to comment on as I was reading your post but glad you brought it up here at the end.
I would have a difficult time believing the COVID numbers in South Africa are being reported reliably (regardless of the reason).
SPECULATION:
I'd love to know more if this is incorrect but I think even in countries like the United States, or Denmark, or Germany, or wherever the numbers are likely to be undercounted based on people just getting sick and not doing anything about it. My intuition is that numbers in countries like South Korea, Singapore, and perhaps Israel are more likely to be closer to the "ground truth". Other countries in Asia I have less confidence in (Japan and China). We probably need to develop and deploy more rapid at-home testing.
Given that tons of people were wearing masks even prior to the pandemic, I don't find it that ridiculous.
And this has nothing to do with being pro or anti-China. I think it's just an obvious recognition of incentives and current state.
During earlier waves the testing infrastructure has detected orders of magnitude more cases, and the current lull in cases is following what epidemiologists predicted and expected before a fourth wave in December/January.
Can you share a source for this? I'd like to hear more.
mutation profile of this particular variant: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
summary of the phenomenon in layman's terms: when binding at 100% efficiency, antibodies bind to portions of the spike protein like a key fits into a lock, so it's easy to "unlock" the lock, thereby neutralizing the viral particle. when there are mutations which affect the shapes of the different portions of the spike protein, it's like the pins in the lock shifting so that the key you used before might not work without quite a bit of jiggling, assuming you can get it to unlock the lock at all. the more mutations that increase the amount of jiggling it takes, the more the pins in the lock become intractable with the key you have.
this set of analogies is imperfect in a few ways, but hopefully it helps you to understand the gist of the problem.
She argued India hit herd immunity right before their delta wave. And about a month ago said the pandemic was finally done. (She says this every few months)
How is Belgium/Europe letting unvaccinated people in? I had to be double vaxxed and negative RT PCR within 6 hours of travel to go to Canada or back to India. Being double vaxxed is an entry requirement for almost all the countries right now.
Considering Belgium specifically https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/travels/:
Check which COVID certificate you have at www.covidsafe.be. In principle, you have applied for this before you left. There are three types of certificates:
A vaccination certificate proves that you have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. You are fully vaccinated 2 weeks after your last vaccination dose and if the vaccine is EMA-certified or Covishield. From 1 September, vaccination certificates from non-EU countries will also be accepted in Belgium under certain conditions, pending their equivalence agreement with the EU.
A recovery certificate shows that you have recovered from COVID-19. You have a positive PCR test result no older than 180 days and you no longer need to isolate.
A test certificate is proof of a negative COVID-19 PCR test result that is less than 72 hours old or RAT test result that is taken the day before or the day of arrival.
I know.
I was also surprised (ENRAGED) to realize that our sanitary pass allow(ed) vaccinated people to attend mass events or restaurants or places where that pass is mandatory even if they have covid symptoms or are under quarantine.
Apparently US citizens undergo a mandatory tests at arrival and must be fully vaccinated. From: https://unitedstates.diplomatie.belgium.be/en/coronavirus-co...
As of November 8, 2021, all fully vaccinated persons are able to travel from Belgium to the U.S. The details on the proof of vaccination and the pre-departure COVID-test are explained on the website of the U.S. Department of State.
U.S. residents are eligible to travel from the U.S. to Belgium, if they are fully vaccinated and have a valid vaccination certificate. We recommend you take all available proof of vaccination with you when traveling, both the CDC card and – when available – State-issued certificates. Please note that airlines decide under which conditions they carry passengers. We recommend you enquire about those conditions before booking your flight.
Upon arrival in Belgium, travelers undergo a mandatory test on day 1 and on day 7. Depending on your vaccination status, you should stay in quarantine for 2 or 10 days. Unvaccinated travelers can only travel in very exceptional circumstances, listed here.
Only recently did the headlines went from "there a no scientific evidences for a third dose" to "WE NEED EVERYONE TO GET A THIRD DOSE ASAP".
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2
> Vaccines reduce the risk of long COVID by lowering the chances of contracting COVID-19 in the first place. But for those who do experience a breakthrough infection, studies suggest that vaccination might only halve the risk of long COVID - or have no effect on it at all ... Long COVID can arise even after a mild or asymptomatic coronavirus infection
> For some individuals, long-COVID symptoms are mild; for others, they are life-changing. Nearly one-third of the people with long COVID at [Physiotherapist David] Putrino [of Mount Sinai Hospital’s Abilities Research Center in New York City]’s clinic have severe cognitive difficulties that can affect their ability to concentrate, speak and remember, and which were not present before their illness. About 60% of Putrino’s patients have had to change jobs or stop working as a result of their illness. “If you’re young and healthy, death from COVID may be highly unlikely,” Putrino says. “But severe debilitation is not.”
> Several studies are presented in this divulgative article. As was common for the topic of the not well defined long covid, numbers may vary strongly.
> --
> People divide in those who want to avoid death, and those who want to avoid damage. This article is very important in showing that those who intend to defend and preserve a maximized quality of life should take strong precautions to avoid infection, regardless of the vaccination status with the current products.
If I want to get on with my life there's a strong incentive to be extra prudent until we figure out something to deal with with or prevent long term non lethal but debilitating damages.
Unfortunately the bureaucratic apparatus has chosen to overplay the vaccines hand and build up a convenient scapegoat for when the vaccines prove to be less effective than originally claimed. The correct and ethical course of action is for everyone to undergo the same level of social protection measures.
So yeah, this shit will never end until countries that aren't dependent on tourism actually start to care about it.
The first case in HK only showed up on fourth PCR test on a fully vaccinated individual in mandatory quarantine.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1463797898446049285.html
> Thoughts: Yes, this variant has a high # of spike mutations, & a few known to cause changes. But, we've seen previous variants that looked worrying & never took off. We should watch & wait for more data to estimate how concerning this is.
> Important thing to keep in mind: - SA has recently had relatively low cases - this may leave a void which a new variant can spread into more easily - it likely hasn't had to compete with Delta. In other places, where Delta rages, it may not be as fit.
> Important thing to keep in mind: - We don't know what other factors may be helping spread, for example, an event or recent behaviour change - SA has a low vax rate - 28% 1dose, 24% 2dose. Immune evasion may not be needed to spread. Fitness could differ in higher-vax countries.
...
I'm very skeptical because Omicron has P681H at the FCS which was already displaced by P681R everywhere. This looks like backwards evolution.
It may have evolved in an HIV/AIDS patient in South Africa and adapted itself to in-host immune evasion, and established itself in South Africa into a relative vacuum of spread via founder effects, luck and whatever forces are driving the roughly 6-month cycles of waves that we tend to see. That doesn't mean that it is going to be able to outcompete Delta.
Of course it may acquire P681R through mutation or recombination or Delta could pick up some of its novel mutations, or maybe P681H makes a comeback because it gets worse in combination with mutations elsewhere in the genome. Everything is still on the table from this being a flash-in-the-pan that disappears once its faces significant competition from delta, up to it becoming worse. And I may be somewhat downplaying the risks due to everyone else overly assuming the risks when we have no useful information.
This will only be solved or contained once we vax the developing world, so that we curb and slow down the emergence of variants.
Problem is that nobody in the developed world wants to be found with their briefs down and no vaccine availibility so the West is stockpiling jabs for people who essentially don't want it.
The west has been stuck around 67-70% for months now, with no tangible progress.
Those jabs, are the "use it or lose it" kind, if a vaccine resistant variant emerges in the 3rd world, all those stockpiles won't do any good, at that point for nobody.
Meanwhile, our schools remain fully packed, with no additional resources for air quality, and the government have even told schools not to inform parents of COVID cases in classrooms.
I can't help but wonder if all this cack-handedness is in relation to the contracts Pfizer "negotiated" with governments - https://www.citizen.org/article/pfizers-power/
PS Bill Gates is still responsible for an almost incalculable amount of harm, because of his actions against free and libre software and small businesses.
Free and libre software was always doomed because people who are worth their weight in gold due to their programming abilities want a nice mansion in Naples, FL with a nice dock and a 40 footer boat , not just a tap on their shoulders for a job well done.
.. Then why did Bill have to try so incredibly hard to fuck them up?
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-south-africa-...
It's not just the matter of shipping out vaccines to the developing world.
Not saying the factors you brought up aren’t important. They are, but it’s not so simple.
You also can't vaccinate everyone at once. Vaccinating the world inevitably takes years, not months.
That leaves a lot of room for mutations. I don't see logistically how you get over that, you just can't. It sounds good but I don't see the practical solutions.
(And then we haven't even talked about cross infection with animals, deers are now 80% infected or something with covid? What happens when they cross over back with some new variant?)
If a large portion of the population is vaxxed, it stops spreading as much even among the unvaxxed, which reduces opportunity to mutate.
Deer don't have the same selective pressure as we do.
But there is a multiplicative effect - the sparser unvaxxed people become, the less general spread there will be.
The vaxxed are still spreading and it is true they cause selection, but this has been well studied and widespread vaccination absolutely would help reduce the rate of mutation.
I don't understand how this could be. Studies have shown that peak viral load is the same for vaccinated/unvaccinated, that means roughly the same number of replicative cycles in vaccinated as in unvaccinated. Each replication is a chance for the virus to aquire mutations, so same number of replicative cycles in vaccinated/unvaccinated means same rate of mutation in vaccinated/unvaccinated.
Spread is also less common among the vaxxed as I said, so even if it turns out to be no difference in load, there is still less opportunity for selection.
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1462816243245719558?t=9OCuB...
How so? Load means number of virus particles. Number of virus particles increases with the number of replication cycles. The probability of mutation increases with the number of replications. So, same number of replication cycles, (roughly) same chance of mutation.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2786040
The science around viral dynamics re: viral loads is much more uncertain than this - so I am not saying it is definite that the viral loads are less, only that there is both a mechanism and some evidence to suggest it is either less or quicker to go down (but the evidence here is mixed and it likely wears off).
But nonetheless, the science on transmissibility - even with breakthrough, is more certain.
Here[0]'s a study from Nov 19th, saying that:
No significant differences were detected in duration of RT-PCR positivity among fully vaccinated participants (median: 13 days) versus those not fully vaccinated (median: 13 days; p=0.50), or in duration of culture positivity (medians: 5 days and 5 days; p=0.29).
[0] - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v...
Please provide some citations to back up your claims.
A few citations on why the evidence leans towards reducing the spread being more effective at reducing variant selection: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1462816243245719558?t=9OCuB... Here is a citation regarding viral load. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01575-4
Also, the vaccine has been shown to reduce viral load which has an impact on rate of mutation even if you are infected.
This doesn't seem to be the case⁰:
A new study from the University of California, Davis, Genome Center, UC San Francisco and the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub shows no significant difference in viral load between vaccinated and unvaccinated people who tested positive for the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. It also found no significant difference between infected people with or without symptoms.
When they analyzed the data, the researchers found wide variations in viral load within both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, but not between them. There was no significant difference in viral load between vaccinated and unvaccinated, or between asymptomatic and symptomatic groups.
⓪ - https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19/news/viral-loads-sim... (Link to study in the article)
It takes multiple people among one's friends and family dropping like flies to convince people in vaccine-hesitant places with ample supply (e.g. Bulgaria) to chose to get vaccinated.
Also it wouldn't hurt if vaccines were actually effective at preventing infection (rather than allowing infection but preventing severe disease)... and if they lasted more than half a year.
If the global Covid #s are accurate - the majority of the Covid infections happening are in the developed world.
It'd be great if we could stop the spread in the developing world - but we need to stop it in the developed world, too - or else mutations are still bound to happen.
Careful here. There is no guarantee that once 95% of the world is vaccinated that this will be solved. Respiratory viral infections are notorious for mutating and spreading regardless of vaccines or treatment.
IMO its important not to simplify the situation and say if group A just did this than everything would be okay. Its quite possible this virus is simply here to stay and a multi array of treatments will hopefully continue to improve outcomes.
Well said. And at this point we should pray this doesn't turn into a Marek's disease replica https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention
Especially true since the virus lives in animals, so it will never be eradicated.
We could vaccinate all of those. If we needed to do the last 4% of wild animals, I'm betting we could vaccinate more than half of those too.
There are remarkably few mamallian species with > 1m population. Virtually all are grazing animals, sea mammals, or rodents.
I'm not sure what species SARS-COV-2 is compatible with, though I've mostly heard of animals > 5kg mass (e.g., domesticated cats, dogs, deer, wildcats), with the very notable exception of bats.
The virus has been detected in 20--40% of sampled deer in the US in multiple states, which is a particularly bad sign.
If it's gained foothold in rodent populations ... well, it could be around for a while.
From April of 2021:
Results obtained from experimental studies indicate that animal species such as cats, ferrets, raccoon dogs, cynomolgus macaques, rhesus macaques, white-tailed deer, rabbits, Egyptian fruit bats, and Syrian hamsters are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and that cat-to-cat and ferret-to-ferret transmission can take place via contact and air. However, natural infections of SARS-CoV-2 have been reported only in pet dogs and cats, tigers, lions, snow leopards, pumas, and gorillas at zoos, and farmed mink and ferrets. Even though human-to-animal spillover has been reported at several instances, SARS-CoV-2 transmission from animals-to-humans has only been reported from mink-to-humans in mink farms.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8128218/?report...
That's not to say that broader transmission isn't possible (the abstract doesn't mention deer, and I'm aware they're found to be infected). The science is still being established.
If the scenario is that they'd still have their mRNA IP if they had decided not to make a vaccine, that is not the incentive structure we want to setup.
It's also not where the constraint lies.
Cases have been surging for at least a month in 70-95% vaccinated countries. It is absolutely clear at this point that these vaccines will not eradicate covid. This madness over vaccines needs to end.
The 1918 flu pandemic ended without a vaccine. Covid will pass as well. In many parts of the US life is effectively back to normal - and if ICUs are still out of capacity after two years of this pandemic then clearly there's a different, more readily solvable problem. Covid is not going anywhere but the hysteria is not justified - people are dramatically overestimating the risks.
Also I don’t think anybody has said vaccines are going to eradicate covid, it is just a matter of saving peoples lives from completely preventable suffering and death.
In short, it's never been about saving the population in general, although that is a desirable side effect. The entire lock down and vaccination push has been about preserving the healthcare system. Doctors and nurses take many years to make, it's not exactly a quick fix.
I don't see coronavirus going anywhere.
...or get fired because of vaccine mandates. Let's not forget about that, because it really does put the lie to the underlying concern here. Are folks worried about "health system collapse", or are they just indiscriminately terrified?
If you're truly worried about the former, then it probably doesn't make a ton of sense to place a vaccination mandate on a group of people who largely got infected and recovered early in the pandemic -- at least offer recognition of natural immunity for health care workers!
While it is probably an under-count, it appears that Covid has killed at least 5 million.
Public health measures and vaccines have prevented a rather spectacular number of deaths as we have worked to find a way to coexist with this virus.
It seems likely that with a sufficient number of infections and waves, yes, humans would eventually force Covid to evolve in the direction of other more-benign viruses. The question at hand is really: how many waves and variants are we willing to tolerate to get there (and how much human suffering is acceptable?)?
We have tools and tactics that can help to speed the end of the pandemic and decrease the number of people who die. We should use them well.
You can't just spawn medical personnel, especially in the conditions that are prevalent due to Covid cases ( lots of work, burnout, etc.). It literally takes years to educate medical personnel, you can't just YOLO it.
> The 1918 flu pandemic ended without a vaccine. Covid will pass as well.
You're begging the question here. As best as we can tell, variants tend to come up when individual people mount a marginally effective immune response to the virus -- just enough to keep it in check but not enough to eradicate it. Effectively, they become a walking "gain of function" experiment.
Vaccines help at the outset by strengthening the immune response. They also help on a statistical basis by simply reducing the background rate of covid in a society. Given the development of new mutations with vaccine availability, we'd be likely to see as many or more mutations without widespread vaccination. If "covid will pass" without vaccination, then it will pass faster with, and the reverse implication is not necessarily true.
Remember, while the media often calls variants of concerns "vaccine escapes," the real effect is immune escape. If a new variant is more likely than average to cause a breakthrough case in a vaccinated person, it's also more likely than average to cause a reinfection in a recovered person.
If you want to be optimistic, then you can still hold out hope that new, more infectious variants may be less severe. The "human gain of function experiment" process for creating variants would select for both infectivity and non-severity. However, I do not have any data on the relative severity of B.1.1.529, and summer/early fall reporting on Delta suggested that it tended to cause somewhat more severe illness than Covid Classic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic
There hasn't been limited international travel for a long time.
Further, the world should be reacting to Covid at the global level. So far it’s like we’re not even addressing the beast on the turf it’s attacking us. And the price to do so, say 70 billion USD at a cost of 10$/dose (which it probably isn’t), is nothing compared to the reacting we’re seeing here today and will continue to see.
I think it takes some exceptionally motivated reasoning to believe that Mr. Gates is doing this because he only wants money.
We could have 100% worldwide vaccination including animal reservoirs and still get mutations.
There is no easy out here unless we develop sterilizing immunity. Life is just a bit more dangerous now and that's that.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/zealand-once-paragon-covid-zero-0...
Don't forget that, yes, a certain percentage of that remaining 10% have either natural immunity or aren't going to experience symptoms.
I'm pretty skeptical at this point that any doubling-down is going to lead to anything but more doubling-down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundat...
But if I donate 10 billion to promote child education does not make me an expert on it.
I am however, aware of some his efforts to restrict global access to vaccines something that will definitely be shown to be a mistake as new Covid mutations emerge outside of the rich "triple vaccinated world"
"How Bill Gates Impeded Global Access to Covid Vaccines" https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-gl...
BTW, with some of the newly designed vaccines, if the virus mutates, the vaccine can be rapidly changed to respond to that (because it's sequence based). That changes things a lot.
...and also don't need it (boosters for healthy, young people). The WHO has repeatedly begged the western world to stop prioritizing boosters for healthy people, but the west continues to do this, instead of getting shots to the rest of the world:
https://archive.md/BnEtn#a-scandal-who-says-the-rate-of-boos...
This all seems to be a tragic attempt by politicians to appease their terrified base, coupled with incompetent scientists who continue to pursue eradication as a goal.
I do think the politicians are getting terrified. They have been incompetent since at least the 90's. Until now, first world circumstances were good enough that nobody cared much.
Corona changed that. There is a need for coordination on a massive scale, and they simply aren't up to it. You can't blather your way out of Covid. People are looking at them, and it's almost impossible to notice they aren't good for just about anything.
Agreed about the politicians being terrified, but I tend to be more sanguine: this is a modern re-telling of Canute and the tide, but the leaders aren't intelligent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_tide
The people are demanding that the tides be pushed back, and the leaders are doing the bidding of the people (and CNN is on 24/7, with Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon telling people that the tides are coming to get them and their children.)
The original sin here was giving them the power to take away our fundamental rights in the first place. The rest was sadly predictable.
No, not all elderly people -- I was careful to put "healthy" in there, and I meant it. Honestly, I probably should have added "not obese" as well. There is not enough risk stratification happening in discussions of this illness.
But sure, at a high level, if we want to put third doses in the arms of people over 65, I think that's more evidence-based than the current recommendations.
"The wise person reduces the importance of governments And simplifies the modes of living, So that people use fewer tools and wares And treasure simplicity in their lives, So that, though there are vehicles, People do not take them. And, though there are weapons, People do not carry them. And, though there are records, Tying knots will serve the record-keeping purpose. Thus, the highest political achievement is one In which people savor their food, Like the beauty of their clothes, Appreciate their safe and peaceful homes, Enjoy their social customs; And in which roosters and dogs Can be heard between countries; But people, all their lives, Have no need to go across the borders." - Translated by Liu Qixuan, Chapter 80 of the Tao Te Ching by Laozi
[1] relative to bubonic plague, smallpox, polio, etc.
I’m not saying that vaccine availability isn’t a problem anywhere in the emerging world but it’s not the only issue.
It feels like we will live in this dystopian neo-fascist world where you have no right for freedom of movement and right to privacy anymore for a while.
If I knew the Western world would screw this much I would have relocated to China where I can at least get some benefit from all these ridiculous rules.
What are those benefits?
In the former life is like 2019 most of the time.
(A lot of places pretend they’re like 2019 but it isn’t the same. You see the effects in hospitals)
The west focuses too much on those X people have died of covid imo. A death is a singular not a plural experience. X people dying means X people individually experiencing dying - we all die eventually - and we all have to cope with deaths of close ones. That's a fact of life. For one person dying - the process is not better or worse if more or less people are virtually dying chronologically close by or of a similar cause. X people dying is a political and economic quantity - and many people dying especially old and weak ones is not necessarily economically, politically and two weeks later socially a bad thing.
So, Africa and Asia will do pretty well compared to us.