Comment by Tagbert | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Tagbert | Hacker News Reader

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Regarding Germany, as the article mentions “only 68 percent of people fully vaccinated”. That leaves a large population among which the virus can circulate. 68% is not a high enough immunity rate to fully block infections. Almost all of the people admitted to the hospital for COVID were not vaccinated.

No, you testing positive for multiple tests does not increase the number of infections. You are only one person.

Yes, if you are in a car wreck and are tested and found positive, you will be counted as an infection. The car wreck is irrelevant. What matters is the infection.

I agree that a previous, verified COVID infection maybe should be counted as offering some level of protection. You may still want to get a booster as natural immunity has not been shown to be as durable as vaccine induced immunity.

If the unvaccinated were to get a vaccine, we would be able to drop the restrictions that you and everyone dislikes. Failure to get vaccinated just drags this out longer.

The virus can still circulate among people who are fully vaccinated. The vaccines are pretty good at preventing deaths, however they only slightly reduce the risk of infection and transmission.

So why are the unvaccinated having their liberties curtailed in several countries?

Because these differences are significant, if you make public policy. Hence the phrasing as a duty to society.

The age-related effects of Covid most definitely are significant. If we've decided Covid is worth curtailing the essential liberties of select groups of people, surely it would be much more effective to target those most at risk?

Do you have a strong enough characterization to put numbers on it?

How much do you think vaccination reduces chances of infection?

(My impression is that it is about 100x, for at least some period. Looks like 3rd shots will last longer than 2nd too)

According to a recent UK Government report, cases are higher among many age groups of vaccinated people, than among unvaccinated people.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... (Table 6)

Yes, I am fully aware the table also shows that hospitalisations and death rates are lower amongst vaccinated people.

The reduction in risk of infection is nowhere near 100×.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-variant-vacc...

Is household infection the dominant form of transmission?

Also, I see you dismiss my speculation but stay mute on what you meant by "only slightly".

100× is definitely too optimistic. Even the original studies with alpha variant and shortly after vaccination was less than 95% effective, i.e., only 20 times.

It seems that the current value is closer to 40% reduction in covid transmission: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-11-vaccines-covid-transm...

Despite the illogical nature of your assertion “they only slightly reduce the risk of infection and transmission”, actually studies show that circulation rate and infectiousness ARE reduced by the vaccine.

“The study showed that people living in the same household as people who were fully vaccinated were 71% less likely to be infected than household members of unvaccinated people.” https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/covid-19-vaccination-reduces-tra...

Ireland is 94% vaccinated (among adults); we still have such high case numbers that lockdown over Christmas seems imminent.

Gibraltar is 100% vaccinated, and under lockdown.

Yes, being in a car wreck matters. More broadly, the fact that efforts haven't been made to distinguish between dying from a 90mph impact and dying from Corona has been used to scare the wits out of people.

Natural immunity has been shown to be 6-14x as effective as full vaccination.

The fact that fully vaccinated people have the same viral load with Delta invalidates a huge amount of your (and the Irish government's) reasoning behind demonizing the unvaccinated.

It's been pretty shocking seeing people accept the use of unvaccinated people as a scapegoat for lack of investment in ICU beds, nurses, air quality standards, and antigen testing etc. It helps you feel smug and superior, but doesn't actually help convince anyone.

... I suggest you look into all of this a bit more before trying to speak with authority on these issues.

> Natural immunity has been shown to be 6-14x as effective as full vaccination.

> The fact that fully vaccinated people have the same viral load with Delta invalidates a huge amount of your (and the Irish government's) reasoning behind demonizing the unvaccinated.

Do you have sources for either of these claims? Everything I've seen seems to indicate the opposite.

Israel study shows that previous infection provides higher immunity. I haven't seen any other studies showing the opposite but not many of them are done. Most studies compare previously infected unvaccinated with previously infected vaccinated to show that vaccine provides additional immunity.

The second is fast developing situation therefore not many studies are done. I had statistics from hospital admittance in Latvia. It was interesting to see that about 13% of deaths are in vaccinated and 30% of hospitalized were vaccinated too. At this time Latvia had about 60% vaccinated almost the same in all age groups. It shows that vaccine has some effectiveness but vaccinated still spread infection considerably. The main benefit is that it reduces risk of death about 10 times but risk reduction in getting infected or sick is not that good.

Probably the OP refers to a large scale Israeli study from late summer.

https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-on...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v...

Edit. While googling around on this topic, I stumbled upon a decent comparison between the Israeli study and a CDC study that claims the opposite, specifically that covid recovered are five times more likely to be hospitalized for covid than the vaccinated.

https://brownstone.org/articles/a-review-and-autopsy-of-two-...

There are various sources for the first line, hence the 6-14x. You can choose whichever you like.

But think about it - have you heard of even one single case of someone recovering from Covid and then spreading it? The CDC haven't - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29201823

Contrast with vaccines. Contrast with the rhetoric. This shit is bananas.

For the second line, again, the CDC have said it themselves, albeit with caveats:

> For people infected with the Delta variant, similar amounts of viral genetic material have been found among both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people

- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-var...

Think about how wild it is that with all our communication capabilities you need to hear this from a random dude on HN. There is very sophisticated and coordinated fear-mongering at play.

Previously infected counts in many places. You get a QR code to access things like bars and festivals if you've recovered in the last 6 months.

Oh Wow golly gee freedom for a whole 6 months!

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