Norway Is Running Out of Gas-Guzzling Cars to Tax
wired.com
wired.com
Having more electric vehicles actually increases - on average - the weight of cars, and - indirectly - road damage (how much is to be seen in practice).
For commercial fleets, trucks are already so heavy that - as you say - provoke the most damage, but they are heavy because they move things that "you/we" need or want, and that "you/we" actually pay for in the end.
So, if there won't be any more income from gas-guzzling cars, and taxing the electric cars is politically not viable, what remains is that the costs will be put on comnmercial transport, which means ultimately that final users will pay more, much more for transport of the goods they buy.
The traditional approach was to tax indirectly (via car related taxes) the - in theory - more affluent part of the population (that could afford to buy and maintain a car), if this source of income ceases to exist, the only way to replace it is to tax more "what remains".
1. You don't disincentivize new car purposes (it's important to buy new cars to replace the old polluting ones you want off the road and it's good for the economy),
2. Your tax receipts aren't stable (if you tax registrations your tax revenue pro-cyclical - when the economy crashes and you need to pay higher unemployment and other benefits you also see a drop in tax revenue),
3. Recurring taxes allow you to make smaller changes over longer periods of time without influencing behaviour.
4. The tax revenue from a £54k Landrover Discovery in the UK for example is around £1,300 a year - if you want to get the same revenue from a registration that tax would enormous.