Observing demos hurts learning, and confusion is a sign of understanding
computinged.wordpress.com
computinged.wordpress.com
"Graesser, Person, and Magliano (1995) found that during one-on-one tutoring, when asking students "do you understand?", answering yes was not correlated with performance, while answering no was positively correlated with better performance." [Graesser, A. C., Person, N. K., & Magliano, J. P. (1995). Collaborative dialogue patterns in naturalistic one-on-one tutoring. Applied Cognitive Psychology, vol. 9, pp495-522.]
"twelfth grade science students all viewed the same physics demonstration by their teacher, but they all disagreed beforehand about what they expected to happen, and afterward disagreed about what they had seen and how to explain what they saw (Roth, McRobbie, Lucas, & Boutonné, 1997). [Roth, W.-M., McRobbie, C., Lucas, K. B., & Boutonné, S. (1997). Why do students fail to learn from demonstrations? A social practice perspective on learning in physics. Journal of Research in Science Teaching, 34, 509-533. Retrieved from http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/45493/abstract ]
And this summary presentation by Brian Pyper:
Best Practices in Physics Demonstrations Or Oh, I thought this was just for entertainment." https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Femp.byui.edu...
Confused students are far more likely to actually understand.
Looking at correct vs incorrect answers (almost 50/50 for 'confused' students), it seems like confused students are far more likely to guess.
Edit: I realize after posting this that it's important to know the test format to figure out whether students understood or were guessing. The article unfortunately doesn't say much about the test format.
Still, the confusion thing is an interesting statistic to read.