The 3n+1 conjecture: Terry Tao has some thoughts ...
terrytao.wordpress.com
terrytao.wordpress.com
1. For those who don't know of him already: Terry Tao is a very, very smart mathematician. (One indication: he has a Fields medal.)
2. He is not claiming to be anywhere near having either a proof or a refutation of the conjecture, nor a plausible way of getting near to either.
3. The main contribution (novel, so far as I know) of what he's done is the observation that there's some connection between the conjecture and transcendence theory. (Transcendence theory is an important and quite well explored field of mathematics. A number is "algebraic" if some polynomial with integer coefficients evaluates to zero at that number, "transcendental" otherwise; almost all numbers are transcendental but proving them so is generally difficult; transcendence theory is concerned with methods for proving that numbers are transcendental and quantifying how transcendental they are in various senses.)
The point of Tao's observation here is: as if we didn't already know, the 3n+1 problem probably isn't easy; an easy resolution of the problem would imply not only that people working on the 3n+1 problem have missed something simple (always possible since it's mostly of interest to amateurs) but that people working in transcendence theory have missed something simple (less likely because lots of really first-rate mathematicians have worked very hard in that field).
https://docs.google.com/View?id=dd5f3337_12fzjpqbc2&pli=...
I've submitted that to ycnews, but it didn't appear. I've no idea why. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2919371
Pre-google, you had no way of knowing what you were dealing with.