The article jumps from detailed hour-driven estimates, to just duking it out. Why does everything have to be so black or white? Why does it have to jump from hour-level to prophecy?

Here is what works at a project level:

* When estimating, never go any step beyond the Feature level (don't split tasks, most of the time not even stories – just Epics or milestones are enough)

* Do RELATIVE COMPLEXITY estimate. Not time. If <epic1> is a medium, then relative to it, is <epic2> large or small? Stop at that level. Don't split it down any further.

Now compare just one of the epics to past history. That's all you need to estimate the rest of the scope, as it's all relative. It takes not more than a few hours for due diligence.