The NoSQL integration I think will be big. I know some folks using SpringData to talk to MongoDB and they've had positive experiences so far.
Maybe in the future things will get simpler - so far I've found that I'm pretty happy with either embedded Jetty or Tomcat. And then Spring/Jersey + Hibernate/JPA.
Have you found that EAR/WAR size has hampered you? I tend not to worry about how many JARs I'm pulling.