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Comment by nickthemagicman | Hacker News Reader

I think you may be wrong.

All age groups are equally INFECTIOUS once they have the disease, but are not equally able to BE INFECTED , otherwise people under 55 wouldn't have to wear masks. We wear the mask to protect others right? No matter what our age is.

So why would you reduce the population size to just an age slice?

The same assumption is made when calculating herd immunity. They use the entire populations infectiousness because chance to transmit doesn't change with age but chance to be infected does..

But you DO limit by age group on the infection side because that individuals chance of contracting it from the general population, is based on age/immune system .

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Like I said, you can do this calculation (percentage infected) for an age bracket (#infected in age bracket / population size in age bracket) or you can do it for the whole population (#infected in whole population / whole population size).

But it doesn't make sense to do #infected in age bracket / whole population size. You might as well calculate #infected in age bracket / number of cattle in Texas.

Of course there are many reasons why one would want to look at the number of infected in certain age (or social or whatever) groups. Beyond that, I'd prefer not to get further into the weeds with you.

If I walk into a room of people with the black plague, I'm concerned about every single person in that room giving me the disease not just the people of my age bracket.

That's the chance of infection.

This same idea is used in mask policy and is used with herd immunity calculations and all over epidemiology to be honest.

I'm really sorry that you have to do mental gymnastics to shoehorn this subject into your narrative.

Have a good day!

I wasn't the one who brought up age brackets, you were ("infected 50 year olds"). But here's the calculation for the entire US population.

Total number infected until early November 2021: ~37 million [1]

Total population of the US: ~329 million

Infection percentage so far in pandemic: 11.2%

"Chance of infection" (per annum): ~7%

See above why this is an absurd extrapolation that nobody with any brains would take seriously. In the long run, pretty much everybody will get Sars-Cov-2. It's an endemic disease.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254271/us-total-number-... per your source, NYT and Our World in Data refer to 47 million cases

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