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>Over the next 20 years, the majority of those 290M will get replaced by an electric vehicle.

Let's optimistically assume that Tesla will sell 100M of new cars in the US in the next 20 years at the average price of 50K per car and profitability 10%.

100M x $50K * 10% = 500 billion which is already less than Tesla's current 1 trillion valuation.

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That’s $25B profit per year excluding any other profit. That can actually justify a 1T market cap.

It's 2.5% ROI, on par with inflation and well below the market. It's hard to reasonably justify it. Unless you bet on a stock with an extremely high P/E to get a much higher P/E.

1. There are other countries

2. What if Tesla gets $1-2k ARR along with each sale for charging or other services?

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