If Tesla can sell 4M cars at 10K profit every year, that's an annual profit of 40B dollars. 1T valuation will be justified.
Right now they are projected to sell more than 1M cars in 12 months.
Right now they are projected to sell more than 1M cars in 12 months.
I am very skeptical that battery costs are going to drop that much that Tesla can make cars for say 15-20k and retail at 25-30k to make the 10k profit you propose.
Battery chemistry is rapidly evolving of course with lesser conflict resources / better performance etc, but raw material costs for basic ingredients are fairly expensive, that puts a hard floor under which it would be hard for Tesla to go below.
1. Significantly reduced energy costs
2. Significantly reduced maintenance, not even oil changes
3. Significantly longer car life, because of having barely any moving parts.
Most of the car parts that go bad in the 100K-300K mile range don't even exist in a Tesla.
Tesla is production limited, not demand limited in its sales. Just the model 3, model y and cybertruck will get them to 4M per annum - no problem.
Tesla can definitely sell more vehicles OR increase margin - but it will be substantially more challenging to do both at the same time over a short horizon (10 years).
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-record-q1-2021-gross-margin-...
So after converting from Musk time to human time, this means it'll take 5 years?