Maybe it's just my location (Europe), but I have never heard of Rivian. Not even once. The guys I work with are car enthusiasts, and I've never even heard them mention that name.
The tech world has gotten used to insane margins and winner take all outcomes in sub-industries. The car industry is nothing like this. The margins are slim, and the total sales numbers across the world don't change as much for each price bracket.
Tesla is squarely coming for GM, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler's market, which have a collective networth of $200b. I can't for the love of me understand how Tesla is worth 5x that, even when their sales are about 10% of that. Even if Tesla fully replaces them by increasing their sales by 10x, surely they would have to deal with the same kind of low margin that all of these automakers are working with. Isn't the absolute dream-world case outcome for Tesla, still only 20% on its way to justifying the stock price ?
Now let's say Tesla is literally run by superhuman teams that let them take over any adjacent market. So, they push out CATL ($200b) from batteries, push out Uber from ride-sharing ($80b) and control the entire world robotics market ($20b). So 200+200+80+20 = $500b. That's still only 50% of the way to their current market cap.
What am I missing here ? Why is their market cap as big as MSFT/AAPL/GOOGL when Tesla is nothing more the most exciting car manufacturer in the world. It is a big, but the other trillion dollar companies literally intersect with every aspect of your life.
All my statements about Tesla apply to Rivian too.
The most popular vehicle in lots of countries is a pickup truck https://www.visualcapitalist.com/best-selling-vehicles-in-th...
I should have said American/Premium pickup trucks sell exclusively in the US & Anglophone countries.
In every other country, the most sold car is the affordable Toyota Tacoma/hilux, which is purchased by people who need to get work done, first and foremost. I see no indication that either Rivian or Tesla are anywhere close to or have any motivation to target the low margin/ high demands market of the Tacoma.
Also, Tesla started off by cannibalizing the market of premium sedans : BMW/Audi/Chrysler. This was arguably the weakest performing sector in the auto industry at that time. The pickup truck market & budget cars market is far more cut throat. I would not expect Ford/Toyota/Honda to get caught sleeping at the wheel when Tesla comes for their big money making cars.
Ford has already hit it out of the park with the F150 lightning. Toyota has a fully developed competitor in the Prius to hold the ground until they catch up, and Honda is quietly electrifying their entire lineup while making actual production cars like the cute little Honda E.
I have seen their truck and SUV in person (NY auto-show), and it is indeed very nice inside. Feels like a Luxury Jeep done right, appart their front headlights, which are weirdly too close to each other (the only detail i really disliked).
Everything else is on point and feels almost Audi like quality.