The second is, even if it was presented better, is this suitable for HN? Sure, the topic of probability is suitable, but this is on such a basic level that surely most, if not all, HN readers already comprehended it.
That said, here's hoping that, if people are going to insist on upvoting it, it can at least spur some interesting discussion. With that aim, here's a tangeant:
It's always interesting in gambling how, no matter how mathematically smart someone is, it's incredibly easy to let your heart make decisions for you when money is on the line. Whether it's betting red on roulette because it landed black 6 times in a row, or betting big on a blackjack hand because you've lost your last few in a row and surely it can't keep going.
Even though, as you place the bet, you're thinking "I know the last X spins don't actually have any impact...", you can't help but feel the urge.