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See https://azure.microsoft.com/overview/azure-stack, and particularly https://azure.microsoft.com/products/azure-stack/hub. "Bringing the agility and innovation of cloud computing to your on-premises environment."

> I imagine at some point in the future (perhaps by 2030) there will be some sort of self-managing set of systems that you can just put on your premises.

That's not really the direction Microsoft is going in. Cloud PC (virtual desktop infrastructure) is an Azure only service; there's no on-prem version. Licensing to build it yourself is complex.

They may likely end up with on-prem islands for purchase/rent/whatever, like AWS has, and IBM pioneered in the 60s?

Unless I misunderstand you those things already exist. https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/overview/azure-stack/