Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the Covid-19 Surge in USA

For more information on the backstory behind this method of analyses, see the Twitter thread https://twitter.com/ChrisRackauckas/status/14541131552783237....

Importantly, I want to emphasize that this is about a quantification and not about the policy or ethics. Is X many extra cases and deaths reasonable for requiring masks indoors? For requiring policy Y? Knowing X helps all policy makers understand the true factors at play. Were these actions right or wrong? I don't know, nor do we presume to have an answer. That is a complicated question with ethical components, economics, and other factors. But this can help policy makers quickly get models to make the "correct" decision.

"Further, our results demonstrate that in the event of a stricter lockdown without early reopening, the number of active infected cases recorded on 14 July could have been reduced by more than 40% in all states considered, with the actual number of infections reduced being more than 100,000 for the states of Florida and Texas."