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Comment by igorgue | Hacker News Reader

"As I write this, I’m sitting in a cafe. Around me, there are five people on laptops — four of them are MacBooks. Four other people are using tablets — all four are iPads. Welcome to the Post-PC world."

Also you live in San Francisco, I'm sitting in a cafe in Florida, and we got 2 macs (me (developer) and another guy that is a designer apparently) and 10 PC, welcome back to the PC era.

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Siegler exemplifies the syndrome that nearly all the high profile tech journalists have sealed themselves into an Apple-centric tech-bubble in San Francisco / bay area. There was a TWiT episode a week or two ago where every single panelist confessed to exclusively using an iPhone and Mac, some having not touched a PC in years ... yet here they were trying to sound informative on Android and Windows, the actual dominant technologies in "reality". They've basically dealt themselves out of being able to be informed and balanced on tech topics by refusing to use anything not made by Apple and now don't even understand when people accuse them of being unbalanced.

It all depends which part of "reality" you focus on. I doubt that Windows is dominant anywhere where interesting stuff happens: be it HN, or developers' conference (save for .NET).

As for balance: this goes both ways. However it is much more difficult to find someone with no experience of Windows (I've used MS products for 15+ years before switching and still have Windows VM for testing) than someone with no experience with OS X. Somehow that does not stop the latter crowd from talking about walled gardens, form over function, „it's all marketing“, computers for non-techie people (it's UNIX, are you kidding me?), hipsters and gays, etc.

"I doubt that Windows is dominant anywhere where interesting stuff happens: be it HN, or developers' conference"

FUD

Actually, I perceive it too. Most Windows developers I meet are doing either Java or .Net - or, even worse, SAP, Oracle or... maintaining legacy VB client server/stuff. That's not a place you would expect interesting things to happen.

At least, not for me - I focus on dynamic languages, web frameworks and distributed databases - the interesting stuff can usually be coerced into running on Windows, but it tends to involve things like Cygwin or VMs. If you have to use Cygwin or a VM to do your job, you are really running the wrong OS for the job.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2303726

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2398989

(There may be more recent ones)

As for developers' conferences, you got to see yourself. Should corelate with the second poll though.

Here in Vietnam, where a laptop can cost several months' salary for the average person, I have yet to see a single Macbook. Asia will undoubtedly be the big growth market of the next decade and kids here are Windows kids. Perfectly functional Windows laptops are still 1/3 to 1/2 the price of the cheapest Macbook.

That's weird. Where do you live? I'm Vietnamese and last time I was home, Macbook(s) and iPad were quite popular at the airport and cafe. I'm from Da Nang.

I've been in a bunch of places in the south but I'm living in Nha Trang now. I see tons of laptops around but I have yet to see a Vietnamese using a Macbook. Maybe the people that can afford to fly can also afford a more expensive laptop?

I do see a fair number of iPhones around though. Maybe because comparable Android phones aren't significantly cheaper.

afford to fly

Is it very expensive?

Compared to the U.S. it's cheap but still too expensive for many natives. I can fly from Nha Trang to Saigon for about $40 but I can take a bus for $5-$8.

If you've been to Hanoi to HCMC, it would not be hard to spot Apple shops along main shopping streets (there must be a demand for such shops, right?). I agree that Apple laptop is more expensive but to the middle class in big city that would not be a big deal. The main issue with Vietnam market is that people still associate computer in general with Windows, thus they don't want to make the switch. The first reaction I got from my friends 5 years ago when they knew I was using a mac was "Does it have microsoft office?".

Regarding the iPhone, Vietnamese are crazy for the iPhone 4. Rich kids want cool looking stuff, they don't care about the price.

Btw, Apple even have an online store for Vietnam: http://store.apple.com/vn

Anecdotal evidence against anecdotal evidence against more anecdotal evidence. There is extensive market research on the distribution of brands. People estimate proliferation by analyzing user agents of web site visitors, surveys, sales numbers, and more -- and even those numbers often vary greatly. Guessing the distribution, or even forecasting a trend, based on your analysis of the 5 people sitting next to you in a café or how many Mac Stores exist in your vicinity doesn't contribute to the discussion.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more Apple hardware in more middle class areas of the larger cities where people have the money to spend and are engaged more aggressively in conspicuous consumption. Here in Nha Trang there are at least five large PC shops but only one tiny Apple shop.

I remember reading somewhere that the profit ratio is about 1:10 for Macs vs. PCs so in your scenario Apple made twice as much money in your cafe than the PC OEMs did. That's exactly why HP is getting out of the consumer PC business.

You might be right though that lots of people have no interest in a post-PC era but how much longer will the discount PC isle be well stocked? They may not have much of a choice. HP decided the business model is broken and not worth saving. They were relying on constant growth of the PC market to slash prices to the bone. Now what? If there's not enough demand prices will have to increase. If the business model is broken for HP isn't it probably broken for Dell and the other big PC OEMs too. They will benefit in the short term from HP bowing out but over the next 3-5 years they will face the same problem. So chances are the post-discount-PC era is going to happen with or without the users consent.

I think this is less a matter of the "post PC world" as it is a matter of PC's having razor slim profit margins due to low barriers to entry and heavy competition. HP knows that and can probably put their capital to more profitable use. Apple makes great products (I have an iphone, an ipod, will probably be buying an ipad next). Still, when it comes to computers, I like to get a bit more bang for my buck than apple is willing to offer.

Lol thats the first thing that went through my head when I read the article too.

"As I write this, I'm sitting on my balcony. Within my frame of view, there are 4 coffee shops, one on each corner of the intersection - four of them are Starbucks. Welcome to the post get your own damn internet and make your own damn coffee world"

Go sit in any college lecture hall and you will see at least 60% Apple products. Apple heavily markets toward college students (Student discounts and back to school promotions) and these same students will be buying Macs for their homes and offices soon.

Apple's been heavily marketing towards college students for 20 years. What's different about it in 2011?

I though the back to school promotion was relatively new.

Back in the 80's Apple had legendary promotions for students. Student discounts of up to 40% weren't unheard of.

But now that students are taking on more loans so they can afford it. Now, Apple doesn't have to entice you with a 40% discount. They know you'll buy it anyway so 10% off is more than enough for them.

Success, I suspect.

OSes have grown much closer to each other over the last five to eight years; websites (or "the cloud" or whatever term you wish to refer to server-browser-driven software) are much more important; the relative cost gap between Macs and Windows machines is much smaller; Apple laptops appear to be vastly better made than any mainstream Windows laptops save Thinkpads.

Take these together, and you'll see a lot of Aluminum MacBooks on campus. Geeks like them because of the Terminal, GNU toolchain, and the fact that other geeks have spent lots of time optimizing the general OS X programming environment; everyone else likes them because they're more aesthetically attractive than Windows laptops.

I agree that the obstacles to entry are much lower for Apple now. But there is still a significant price premium for Apple laptops. Maybe it's not consequential for people that can afford to pay tuition in a Western university but for the rest of the world that premium is still decisive.

IPad. No price premium there.

Which is exactly why competing tablets haven't gained ground. Why buy a less usable device for the same price? Things in the tablet market will only get interesting when and if Android vendors can significantly undercut Apple.

It's funny you assume they can't make a more useable device ;) funny cause it's true.

The dynamics of the Android ecosystem are such that its value proposition will always be that you trade flexibility for polish.

Kids growing up with iPods (especially the touch).

20 years ago the OS was unreliable garbage and Windows had protected memory, thus making it slightly more reliable and slightly less garbage?

/programmed throughout university on OS 7 and 8. Barf.

Depends on the college. I sat in on a CS class recently at a local university and there were 2 or 3 Apple products in a lecture hall of 100 something students.

>welcome back to the PC era

I wonder how long this lasts. When the biggest PC maker decides to exit, it should be a cause for concern for competitors who aren't Apple.

I'm in Minneapolis. Same story as San Francisco.

The twin cities are known for their hipster movement. I suspect that is what is driving mac adoption over a technological choice like in the bay area.

Please don't use the word 'hipster' and expect to be taken seriously. So many groups of people have been tagged with it that it's completely meaningless.

Hipster has a meaning, even if it only describes what it isn't. It's much like Christianity. If you say you are a Christian all you're really saying is that you're not an Atheist. Hipster has the same symbolism, you're essentially saying what you're not. Hipsters of almost all stripes tend to progressive and independent in some way. It could be related to their religion ( http://www.twloha.com/ ), culture, fashion, or politics.

Just to be contrarian, I'm from St Paul, its mostly macs, but sometimes you'll see a Dell as well.

That's not contrarian. That's what I meant. Just as many macs here in MSP as in SF.

Which direction do you think technology choices flow?

Mac might be slowly gaining on Windows but it's a very slow growth.

That San Franciscans use more Macs should be a surprise to no one. Their salaries are a lot higher than people on the east coast (a few choice cities excluded). Of course their living expenses are a lot higher too; but computers cost the same no matter where you live. $1200 to a San Franciscan is a different type of purchasing decision than to someone from, say Ohio. In San Francisco $1200 is a month's rent on a studio apartment. In many parts of the east coast that's a pretty luxurious 3 bedroom condo.

Ohio is the East Coast, only if you consider Nebraska to be on the West Coast.

At the risk of getting seriously offtopic, my map shows bits of Ohio being closer to the Atlantic than parts of Oregon and Washington are to the Pacific, so perhaps we should say "Ohio is the East Coast only if Spokane is the West Coast".

Yet, Ohio is considered part of the midwest: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midwestern_United_States

And if you've ever driven coast-to-coast, you know why.

And this is what I was referencing actually. I should have included the link, but I thought it was common knowledge that Ohio was the furthest east state that is a part of the Midwest.

Ah, now I understand why you mentioned Nebraska.

My US geography is still a little iffy. I've never understood why that bit is "midwest". To me "midwest" looks like, y'know, Montana.

In California Geography, everything east of the Rockies is "the East Coast".

Nailed it!

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