Conditions changed.
people working remote
Social is just (fom a business perspective) a tool for getting an audience. The thing both Google and Facebook are selling is advertisement placement. Winning in one area of free “services” to build an audience to deliver ads to but not winning in actually selling ads…isn’t winning.
I was one of those googlers who, when Plus was announced, wondered "why aren't we announcing an AWS competitor?"
Google can walk and chew gum at the same time.
As I recall from my outside/user perspective: Google Plus pretty much co-opted the entire organization in an supposed "all hands on deck, existential fight" against Facebook. Every product and feature had to have a "social" layer (including GMail!); YouTube even adopted a "Real Name" policy but still amazingly managed to worsen the comment system.
Can you imagine what a similar level of effort on the cloud would have produced? Maybe they wouldn't be a distant #3 in that space today.
Employees are a company's most valuable resource. A company looking to grow and innovate must take care of its employees and part of it is respecting their time.
4 day work weeks causing no change means those engineers weren't productive in the first place. Which, in my experience, is the case in a lot of FAANGMULA teams.
I'd bet that Google & Facebook's current run-up is largely driven by inflation and higher ad prices. FB even said as much in a recent earnings call. Jerome Powell did more for their business than any employee up through the CEO did.
If there were 100 good search engines the price for advertising would be 90% lower
Would it really be that much though?
I thought search ads were auctions - i.e. competition for impressions/clicks directly correlates to the price of advertising.
If you have search users distributed across 100 platforms, the competition for impressions/clicks is going to be super low on all platforms, but you'd have to advertise on 100 platforms to get the same level of engagement, adding it all back up but with 100 middle men this time.
Why do you think that? The revenue is determined by the number of searches showing ads, the click-through rate, and the cost per click. The total across all companies would clearly not change for the first two metrics. Would the cost per click change? Given it's determined by an auction, I don't see how it could change. If you have an incentive to bid $1 on an ad on a single site with 100x traffic, you'd be equally willing to bid $1 on each of 100 separate sites with 1x traffic.
Is it possible that those cheaper ads could create more demand for ads somehow? It seems hard to believe it could. Either it's a search term that people were already willing to buy more expensive ads for, and are now just happy to pay less, or it's a search term that nobody was willing to bid even minimum price for.
What's actually going to happen in your scenario is that company A loses 90% of their revenue, goes bankrupt, and their domain is sold for a fair price to Company B or one of the other 98 remaining competitors.
And the number of ads and hidden ads would be like Cable.
If there were 100 good search engines for end users, but opinions of different users on quality were highly correlated, the traffic would be very disproportionately on the one that was perceived as even very slightly better.
And they’d make the bulk of the advertising dollars.
And they’d have the bulk of the money to throw at improvements.
And the next year, unless some competitor got more access to outside investment to make up for that, the gap would be bigger, they’d have even more of the search audience, and even more of the advertising money, etc.
When you can’t sell your slightly-less-good product for a lower price to make it value-competitive to slightly-more-good one, there’s very little reason for all the users not to go to the slightly-more-good one. With free services given away to get an advertising audience, that makes slight advantages very prone to positive feedback loops.
What does this mean? The dollar didn't inflate 68%.
If you mean that companies are investing more capital into advertising because capital markets are looser, sure, but why is that a bad thing again?
a.) close to the point where the money is injected
b.) have quick-adapting prices, ideally ones where competitors bid against each other
c.) are dominated by 1-2 firms with little competition, so they have pricing power.
Google and Facebook tick all the boxes. In COVID money was injected directly to the consumers (thanks to stimulus payments) and to small or mid-size business (PPP loans). Google and Facebook run up-to-the-minute ad auctions, so prices adapt immediately to additional money becoming available. And they have little real competition, so it's not like they can be undercut by competitors.
By contrast, wages (for example) a.) require that your employer have more money, which generally requires that it have trickled down through the whole value chain b.) get updated usually once per year and c.) generally require that your competition also decide they're going to ask for more money too, less your employer just decide to employ someone else. That's why wages are often the last and stickiest place that inflation shows up.
The general phenomena of certain businesses being able to raise prices earlier, faster, and more than others in response to rising money supply is called the Cantillon Effect, and is a pretty fertile ground for making lots of money in an inflationary environment.
The rest is wrong - you can look to an economist https://www.themoneyillusion.com/it-really-really-really-doe... if you want an explanation.
I'll not there is a tension between 2 and 3 as highly competitive markets tend to not have sticky prices.
tl;dr You advance a claim of strong monetary non-neutrality. I think that outside of sticky prices, your claim is overstated.
I can't prove the scale, but I believe the op (or was it gp?) is right and those funds, to some extent, went directly into stocks, real estate, luxury automobiles, luxury watches, artwork and other assets, and a large percentage of the remainder found its way to those same places indirectly.
I have no concrete evidence or source for this, but I don't think my friends are unique here. For as many businesses as you heard were struggling there were countless others doing ok or even well during the pandemic.
Just trying to offer a different perspective on your comment.
"Alphabet has been viewed as a key beneficiary of the **reopening trade**, given it stands to gain from a pick-up in travel-related searches and advertising on Google Search." (** emphasis mine **)
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-google-reports-q3-20...