Renting vs Buying, Foreclosures and Job Growth across 50 US Cities
insights.truliablog.com
insights.truliablog.com
* My home.
* A large financial investment.
Changing one affects the other. I'm skeptical that life circumstances will magically align so that when it's a good time for me financially to sell my home, it will also be a good time for me to change location (or vice versa).
So I rent.
Duplex living is great deal. Assuming of course you live in a non-suck market (realestate and job). If I had the money for 20% down payment I'd be buying more.
Otherwise, though: you're absolutely right. The only reason a foreclosure makes sense for me is that fixing houses is a hobby of mine.
I concur with your analysis though, and don't plan to buy for a long time (ie, when I am ready to put down roots for 10-20 years).
Many people think home buying is a good financial strategy because most people don't have the discipline to save this extra cash. It benefits the buyer in the same way a forced retirement savings plan would.
Roughly speaking you might wind up with the same upside. I consider rent+invest the more risky option even if you do have the discipline to do it, since there are lots of scenarios where you wind up behind.
What does winding up behind mean? It means being 85 years old, retired, and not having enough money to pay the rent. I think it's worth buying a house just to have the peace of mind of knowing you'll have somewhere to live once you're retired.
This is the case for federal taxes. State stuff is all over the map; I don't believe mortgage interest has been deductible in any of the states I've paid taxes in (MD, MA, CA, IL) but there may be some where it is. For the most part there are no municipal or county-level income taxes, so the whole issue is moot for those jurisdictions.
http://www.economics21.org/commentary/renting-v-buying-new-e...
PS: What's missing from much of this analysis is you can have positive home equity but the transaction costs of buying and selling a home put you into the red.
House prices can and do drop 40-60% from a peak. If you got a 95% mortage, you can really be hammered.
How long does it stay on your credit history (officially)?
(as a side note, I'm hard pressed to believe that for 5% everything is included (taxes, fees, ...) and that they do everything for you for that money. I'd pay 9% here in Europe, including tax, and for that money they'd put ads in the papers/internet, show the building to tenants, check if payments are made and put a lawyer on it when they're not (but I'd still have to pay the lawyer) and take the phone when something needs fixing. I'd still have to find, send and pay a repairman myself).
Because of the size of the down payment I made (small), and the condo market right now (not awesome), I can't sell without taking a loss until probably about 2014. I also probably can't rent without taking a loss.
I'd like to move - but at the moment, short of foreclosure, there's no way to get this condo off my hands so that I'm free to move again without taking a significant-enough (~$15k) hit to make it cost prohibitive.
Are there more opportunities in other cities? Definitely. But because of my current living situation, I'm not flexible enough to take advantage of them.
From wikipedia: Liquidity premium theory
The Liquidity Premium Theory is an offshoot of the Pure Expectations Theory. The Liquidity Premium Theory asserts that long-term interest rates not only reflect investors’ assumptions about future interest rates but also include a premium for holding long-term bonds (investors prefer short term bonds to long term bonds), called the term premium or the liquidity premium. This premium compensates investors for the added risk of having their money tied up for a longer period, including the greater price uncertainty. Because of the term premium, long-term bond yields tend to be higher than short-term yields, and the yield curve slopes upward. Long term yields are also higher not just because of the liquidity premium, but also because of the risk premium added by the risk of default from holding a security over the long term. The market expectations hypothesis is combined with the liquidity premium theory:
I bought an apartment in San Francisco in 2001 and frankly, it was one of the best decisions I've ever made. Before I did so, I calculated out the cost difference of renting vs. buying. After taxes, my living expenses were only a few thousand dollars more a year to buy vs. renting.
If I want to move, I don't have to sell my place, I can simply rent it out. Given current rates, I can do so for more than my monthly mortgage payment. Not only that, but my property is worth about 40% more than what I paid for it. I can actually use my equity in my house to finance another home and flip one to a rental.
Maybe purchasing isn't for everyone, but it certainly is for some. In the end, it depends on your finance situation and location.
I see no reason to believe that that's a prevailing view. It all depends on the region and economic circumstances.
For example, my experience renting in Chicago is that water, heat and hot water were typically included in the rent. That's most certainly not the case everywhere.
This "statistic" wouldn't happen to come from a company that earns its revenue primarily through the buying and selling of houses, would it?
Most Americans should rent, especially in today's dark economy. The average American is unskilled, has not saved for retirement and lives paycheck to paycheck. Such a person should avoid big purchases because accumulating debt is a gamble on future earnings.
We decided to buy a 2br fixer-upper on the cheap and ended up with a mortgage of ~$600/mo. That was five years ago. We've since renovated the crap out of the house (it's now the nicest on the block), bought a second house in Philadelphia (wife's getting her PhD at Penn now, and I can now walk to work), and are about to put it out for rent. We'll be getting at least $1200/mo for it.
Renting's okay while you get your financial situation together. Maybe most people shouldn't live paycheck to paycheck. You don't have to be well off in order to make a budget. If you look at my social security statements, I was making jack squat while I lived in York PA, and still managed to squirrel money aside.
Some people's lifestyles are more conducive to renting. I quite like having a place I can mangle and customize as I see fit. Some people like not having to worry about maintaining their building and grounds. Maybe when I can't do things for myself, I'll go back to having a landlord, but especially given how low mortgage rates are right now, I feel fortunate to have bought a house or two.
> Maybe most people shouldn't live paycheck to paycheck.
Strike "maybe most" and I agree with you.
"Oswald showed a correlation between homeownership and unemployment both within and across countries. These results have been confirmed by Nickell and Layard (OECD countries) and Green and Hendershott (U.S. states). The present paper tests the hypothesis with an individual household data base. We track through time individual households with people who enter unemployment. We find some evidence that earners in homeowning households who become unemployed find work less quickly than do earners of renter households."
Abstract: http://cura.osu.edu/research/roundtables/data/hendershott1.p...
NyTimes Article: http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/08/16/a-chance-to-...
The tricky bit then becomes not "can I afford it" but, "will I be moving again? If so, how soon?"
It can be used to evaluate renting vs buying decision for home buyer. If the likely rent for the house you are buying is close to or over 1%, buying has more advantage. If it's far below 1%, renting costs less.
I have heard 7% is a reasonable long-term.
Rule of the thumb is a rough guess, gut feeling kind of guess. For quick guess without detail analysis, you want to build lots of cushion into the decision. The 1% will "most likely make money" because it has lots of cushion built in.
You can do more detail analysis with CAP/IRR/interest rate for more marginal deals.
7% annual GRM has too little margin IMO. Assuming operating cost (expenses+taxes) is 40% of gross, that gives you about 4.2% CAP rate. You are making a tiny profit after paying a 4% mortgage. Any down turn at rent, increase at expenses, or vacancy would bleed it into red.
In the US, people often own their own homes. Rarely do they own homes that other people live in. Apartments are typically owned a single owner/landlord (condos are different). Owning is a common dream, less so in cities (particularly New York).
In the UK, home ownership and the property market is an obsession. It is a common topic of conversation. People are heavily invested in their properties and often seek to buy more of them. There is a strong attitude of "if I don't buy now I'll never be able to afford to live here", particularly in London and the Southeast (less so now I suspect). The North and West are somewhat different. The market is highly speculative.
In Switzerland, the property market is essentially controlled. There is little real estate speculation. Transaction costs are high. Capital gains taxes on properties can be brutal, which strongly discourages speculation. Renting is not frowned upon. For tax reasons, people often buy houses and never pay them off. In Switzerland you get a tax exemption for interest but you also get deemed income from the effective rent the property is worth.
In Australia, owning one's house is a cultural obsession. People often end up owning multiple properties. There are few apartment buildings owned by one owner (it's much more like the American condo system).
I think of all the systems I've personally experienced, I like the Swiss system the most. It treats property as something you need to live not a financial instrument to speculate on.
That system isn't applicable everywhere however. Switzerland is unique in that it is fairly affluent, has a small population and very restrictive immigration. So somewhere like the US has >40 times the population so even excluding immigration, domestic movements of people can be incredibly large creating market pressures in places like New York that Switzerland will simply never experience.
Some years ago I saw an article (I'm sadly unable to find but the topic is covered elsewhere in depth) in the UK which showed that the rate of home ownership was inversely proportional to economic growth. The idea was that home ownership reduces labour market flexibility (which it clearly does). I don't know if the trend still holds up.
In Australia for example a family home can easily cost $1 million in Sydney. If the household income is $200,000 and that family wishes to move to, say, Melbourne and buy a new house they'll pay $20-50,000 in realtor fees and $50,000+ in stamp duty on buying the new house so they need to make back nearly $100,000 of after-tax income just to break even.
Sadly stamp duty is a cash cow for state governments in Australia so isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Yet I think it's a real problem. Transaction costs need to be relatively low. Financing requirements need to be relatively to limit rampant speculation, particularly in overheated markets.
Somewhat off-topic, but what's the rental situation like in Australia for those moving to the country? Are there substantial obstacles to a non-citizen resident like there are in other countries like Japan? My wife and I are planning a move, and this is something I've not been able to Google up very well.
As for restrictions on foreigners, there is nothing like Japan's rules. Bond is usually 4 weeks rent and rent must be paid in advance in most states. Tenancy laws strongly favour tenants.
Which city are you moving to? Perth is fairly competitive right now, and price will be heavily dependant on your proximity to the CBD and major transport routes. I'm about 7kms from the CBD and pay about $440/week* for a 3x1 '60's home. House is weatherboard with great floorboards throughout and a huge (as in, too big for me!) yard out back.
Took us a few months to find a place though, and it is pretty competitive. It's a sellers market right now so they can afford to be choosy with who they lease it out to, but the actual paperwork requirements are rarely very onerous (job references, rental references, holding deposit).
* To own a home like this, which sold for $600k to the current owner (or thereabouts), would cost me closer to $1000/week in mortgage repayments over 30 years.
There is a huge rental market for temporary residents largely driven by international students. I've heard of international students living in poor rental conditions, but that is often the result of a willingness to live in cramped squalor. I've also heard of landlords demanding high bonds for temporary resident renters, however note that in most states bonds higher than 4 weeks' rent are illegal.
Provided you have a valid visa you should be able to find decent rental accomodation, I would also recommend having a reference from a landlord (and/or employer).
I don't know of any impediments for non-citizens in terms of renting. I've employed people on working holiday visas, short-stay business visa, permanent residency and citizens, and they all seem to be able to find rental accommodation in the inner suburbs of Sydney without too much problem. I've usually provided an employment reference either verbally or on paper.
Hope that helps.
I am more then willing to invest in any city on that chart if I know some or better, all of these: - population is increasing - employment is increasing - income is increasing - the neighbourhoods I'm buying show pride of ownership - public transit improvements (highway, LRT, subway) - supportive government (proactive business development office)
Though this infographic is very cool/informative, buyers should concentrate more on the future then the present. Just because it's cheap isn't sufficient reason to purchase. And if you want to live in an area with a negative outlook renting IMO is best.
Anyways, if it's useful to you, the data we're pulling from is here: http://insights.truliablog.com/vis/rent-vs-buy-q3/data/rvb-q...
Chipotle is 50 cents more expensive across the board here. Damn.
Also, the job growth numbers for each city look suspicious. Was there such a jump in growth rate in Jan '11?
Can't speak to the job growth numbers methodology as they come from SimplyHired.com
If you have more specific JS questions than that I can point you at @golike who wrote all the code for this :)
Sorry, that wasn't supposed to be a joke. A meta-comment is a comment about comments, though, and your comment is on the graphics.
If I look at my friends parents who live in some nice parts of London, there is zero chance they could afford to rent the houses they live in now, the ones they bought 30 years ago.
I'm thinking of the US marketplace, but I suspect it will hold up in similar areas as well. Houses can/will be illiquid at times.
However, unemployment ranges from 9% to 17%... I'm not sure how pleasant or safe that would make the neighbourhood.
Having said that, I wouldn't trade my place in Melbourne for any number of houses here :)
Being a landlord in Australia is just a matter of wandering down to your local LJ Hooker, handing over the keys, and watching as money starts magically appearing in your bank account. If you buy a block full of cheap houses in Las Vegas you'll be lucky if you can find an agent willing to manage them. If you do, you'll be lucky if he can actually rent 'em out. And if you do rent 'em out you'll be lucky if your tenants don't rip all the wires out for the copper and vanish across the border.
Oh, plus there's property taxes. Yeech.
I am guessing that you are central Sydney or Melbourne.
Things are red hot for software engineers in the Bay Area, they are way less peachy for just about every other field.
Again, I'm still getting used to the whole scene, but the center of everything really seems to be further south.