I've pretty much always thought that it's a bad time to buy and I've always been wrong.
That's not how most people operate though.
Kaplan: Long-term investing works when you keep your money in the market for long periods of time. When you're doing dollar cost averaging, you're not keeping your money in the market over the full period of time. You are keeping much of your money out of the market for much of the time. So, you're not getting the full benefit of long-term investing. Furthermore, when you're dollar cost averaging, you're basically placing a bet. You're placing a bet that the market will be going down shortly after you get the money and that eventually the market will come back up towards the end of the period as you're putting more money into the market.Lots of people have a fear of investing and don't enter the market at all. DCA is a fool-proof strategy which can minimize the fear and is easy to follow for beginners. In the case of Bitcoin, most people simply don't enter at all, because they're too afraid of the short-term movements in the price.
You shouldn't feel bad about it: it just means you're sensible.
I've seen and heard people following that exact line of thought at $2, $30, $300, etc...
Predicting the future is by nature hard.
Predicting the future of a highly volatile phenomenon is psychologically hard.
Volatility on a log scale gets squashed a fair bit.
Not that I disagree with PlanB's model, but that's not what most people look at, especially not daytraders: PlanB's model's investment horizon is way too long for them.
1. Buy Bitcoin at any price, it doesn't matter.
2. Tokenize it into a form that allows you to...
3. Put it into DeFi and collect APY on it.
By collecting interest, it disconnects you from the actual price of bitcoin. As long as you're getting that sweet compounding interest, that is all that matters because it gives you the freedom to choose what you want to do with it.
You can "buy" more bitcoin (ie: don't sell your interest), or you can take that interest and use it to bet on other things.
You're making your "money" work for you which is the best of all worlds. This is a similar play to covered calls, but far easier to reason about.
What is different is that instead of handing your funds off to let some bro at a bank or on wallstreet make the majority of the money, you get to cut out that middle man and take control of YOUR money.
If any of the above is confusing... do some research. Start with google: DeFi.
i laughed and went back to playing counterstrike
i miss 2009
>> created by [deleted] a community for 10 years [Mon Jul 18 06:43:43 2011 UTC]
> It’s about time in the market – not timing the market
Best day to buy Bitcoin was yesterday, the second best day to buy Bitcoin is today.
If you bought in April, you only broke even in the past couple of days.
It's very much about timing the market.
I disagree with you there:
a) it's *always* about timing the market, whatever the investment may be: because in the end, you die.
b) on a wide enough moving average window (i.e. if your investment horizon is long term enough), and if you only look at the technical analysis pov (like many are wont to do) and ignore the politics/value conversations, BTCUSD feels like quite a reasonable bet to take.
c) had you DCA'd Bitcoin - say $50 / month - since - say - 2013, you'd be sitting *very* pretty right now.