Of Scarface and the Nobel – The Double Life of Mariel

2000+ words to say... not very much at all, whether about natural experiments in general or this one in particular. This is not the place to look for an explanation of this year's economics Nobel (or "Nobel", as you prefer).

It is very hard to say something definitive and causal about the effects of immigration on wages. It is extremely difficult to say which way the causal relationships run. You can easily tell yourself stories which "explain" effects in any direction.

A situation in which several tens of thousands of low-wage workers are added plausibly at random to Miami is about as good as it gets. (Or: if you have a better setting in mind, tell me and let's publish something in the American Economic Review!)

Card himself would not say that his study is perfect or that it should be the last word on the topic. If you have a better setting, he would be the first to welcome your paper on the topic.

Look elsewhere than this post if you want to understand the recent Nobel Prize. The Nobel Committee prepares a beginner's backgrounder on the topic available here: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2021/pop...

And for more thorough coverage at a higher level, try their scientific background here: https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021/10/advanced-economic...

Both my parents came to the U.S. during Mariel. I didn't know that this year's economic Nobel Prize had gone to someone who studied the economic effects of people like my parents until I saw this post.

My parents always told stories about how one of them was one of the early arrivals and didn't go through any screening. The other arrived later and was quarantined in Army barracks in a state in the northeast while they were screened. I didn't know of the unrest in Arkansas during this time until I read this post.