Already, in the US, the majority of new solar projects include storage attached to the same inverters as the solar panels. Batteries are on an exponential learning curve for cost. It's not hard to see where the future will be.
Additionally, a mixture of both offshore wind solar will be close enough to provide all of the UK's needs.
If you go and redo David MacKay's energy scenarios for the UK from Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air, and use modern costs, the all renewable scenarios look pretty great. If nuclear can chip in and reduce some storage needs during a week long wind lull, that would be great too. But at this point in time we can't depend upon new nuclear to contribute anything to our immediate needs for climate solutions. Game day is here, now, and we have to play with the team of players we have currently.
It's quite ironic to call shipping storage systems, from the MWh scale to GWh scale, installed all around the globe, "vapor ware" while not pointing out that nobody has ever even shipped an SMR.
This sort of double standard when it comes to evaluating technology has been the source of so much bad capital allocation over the next decade.
But, if you are willing to call storage vapor ware, I will be sure to call SMRs that from now on.
That's true, but unbuilt nuclear power dreams can't keep homes heated either. We almost can't build nuclear plants. We almost can't politically or socially agree to build them, we almost can't fund them, we can't keep the costs reasonable, we can't keep them to budget or on-target with construction times.
Look at the history of nuclear power in the UK:
Trawsfynydd construction began in July 1959 and both reactors were online by March 1965 with works finished in 1968, for £103M. Bank of England inflation calculator puts that at ~£2.5Bn in today's money.
Sizewell B was first announced in 1969, design reworked in 1974, design reworked and announced in 1980, had a public enquiry from 1982 to 1985, started construction in 1988, finished on schedule in 7 years for £2Bn which is ~£5.8Bn in today's money.
In 2008 the UK gov said new nuclear plants could be built for £2.8Bn. The chairman of EO.N said it could be as much as £4.8Bn.
Hinkley C was announced along with seven other sites in 2010, EDF said the construction cost would be £16Bn in 2012, electricity strike price set at £6Bn in 2013. Site preparation started 2014. Approved by the board of EDF and the UK gov in 2016, scheduled to generate power from the first reactor by 2025. The strike price has increased to £50Bn. The construction cost increased to £20Bn and then £22Bn. This year they've announced a 6 month delay and half-billion price increase due to COVID.
It's the most expensive nuclear power on the planet. It's twice the cost per MW as nuclear power in France. It's been criticised by Dieter Helm, Professor of Energy Policy at Oxford University for being too expensive, by an advisor to PM Theresa May for "selling our national security to China", by George Monbiot for being an outdated reactor design even in 2013. It's part-owned by a Chinese company sanctioned by the US government for espionage, it's almost 4x the cost of electricity compared to the design estimates for this kind of reactor. EDF were fined €5M for misleading investors about the costs in 2014. "The UK nuclear regulator has raised concerns with EDF Energy over management failings that it warns could affect safety at the Hinkley Point C power station if left unaddressed" reported The Guardian.
And of the seven other sites announced back in 2008? None of them have had any further development, they've all been shelved.
Is the next one going to be 20 years in development for £40Bn construction cost and £150/MWh and the one after 30 years in development for £55Bn construction and £200/MWh?
Nuclear power advocates are like "we need to have lots of nuclear plants online by the end of the decade, if not sooner; therefore we will have that, no worries". Any realistic plan for going carbon-neutral through nuclear has to deal with these realities. No government is going to blow a trillion pounds on ten Hinkley C's now after COVID19 spending.
Links:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Ki...
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trawsfynydd_nuclear_power_stat...
- https://www.ice.org.uk/what-is-civil-engineering/what-do-civ...
- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/in...