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Comment by jstx1 | Hacker News Reader

Seriously - Bitcoin is more than 8% up today and about 50% up compared to 3 weeks ago. It's almost back to the all-time high from April. How does anyone explain any of this?

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Bitcoin's price "in USD" makes more sense as a price "in USDT". It's completely unsurprising that Bitcoin went up relative to USDT after this news.

The big question is when the peg of 1 USDT ~= 1 USD (or USDC) is going to break. Tether is going to do everything they can to maintain that peg as long as possible.

> The big question is when the peg of 1 USDT ~= 1 USD (or USDC) is going to break. Tether is going to do everything they can to maintain that peg as long as possible.

Yuup. Assuming USDT is a fraud, Tether likely makes very good money off of it, and is hence HEAVILY incentivized to keep it running as long as possible. I'd be very curious to hear theories as to what might cause it to collapse.

Complaints by companies trying to exchange usdt to usd

But those companies would only complain if Tether stopped redemptions, which presumably would only occur if they ran out of cash. You'd need some other outside impetus to trigger it all.

It looks like a Bitcoin futures ETF is nearing approval and could go live next week [1][2]. My guess is that people are pricing that in.

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/bitcoin-etfs-may-finally-mak...

[2] https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1449010847074897933

I can explain - More people want to buy than sell

Thats not really how it works - every transaction must have a buyer and a seller. When prices go up, buyers are simply willing to go deeper into the order book to get their orders filled.

More simply, more money (not people) is buying than is selling.

> How does anyone explain any of this?

Suppose you hold a big bunch of USDT (Tethers) right now.

What would be be doing in light of these news?

Exactly.

Why not just convert to USDC / BUSD / some other stablecoin?

Or Dai or Gemeni Dollars?

How do you convert if nobody wants to buy your USDT?

A complete lack of regulation in the markets.

I could tell you, but because this information could reduce my purchasing power, I’m choosing to keep quiet.

I’m not willing to share the short/medium term philosophy, catalysts, and predictable patterns. But I’ll reshare the long term philosophy since I’ve already written about it 4 months ago:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27202204

If you’re smart and knowledgeable, you may be able to piece it out from my comment history.

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