SpaceX hits $100B valuation after secondary share sale
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
As of a few days ago, Tesla has their lowest short interest to date. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/tesla-sho...
SpaceX and a lot of space industry, kinda like IT, seems to capitalize on the like mindedness/idealization and enthusiasm of many that want to work in aerospace.
And I have heard the churn and burnout is real as a result.
I personally have avoided startups and other types of jobs that would require more....time investment and dedication. I know thats not how everone sees it, but for me, my job is a means to an end and that end is family and fun/recreation, not colonizing mars or being a part of the next great innovation, tech or otherwise. As a result its clear I'm not cut out for a place like Spacex or even Amazon (and thats assuming I am even quick enough to hold such a gig). I like my nights and weekends and work/like separation too much.
I have no first hand knowledge of this, but my understanding is video game development is a good example of this: the pay and working conditions are far worse than similar software engineering roles in other industries, because so many video game enthusiasts want to grow up to make games.
The value of the shares is the capitalization of all the future profits. The estimation of all of that goes into the stock price -- if investors think the profit will be higher, the share price is bid up in expectations of those future profits, so that for the next investor, they will not get any more risk adjusted profit than if they bought any other stock. Similarly if the expectation of profits declines, then the shares are repriced lower as well so that the for the next investor they are indifferent between SpaceX and any other stock.
This means there is big money to be had by unlocking value -- e.g. buying up the shares, changing the focus of the company to something even more profitable, and then selling the shares at the higher level. This is essentially the price of going public.
Yes, on the one hand you can convert future profits into present cash and make the investors absorb all the risk. But on the other hand, you just sold your company to the market and so have to cede control. Shareholders can elect a new board, replace you, make changes to the corporate bylaws, etc. Shareholders now own the company.
Musk could have issued just a small number of shares and kept the rest himself, to maintain control, but still you are opening the door to a lot of public scrutiny, the need to have shareholder agreements and to not intentionally take steps that would mislead shareholders or violate the agreement, lest you face shareholder lawsuits. Bottom line, if you want to sell your future profits to the market, you can do that, but then you lose control. If keeping control is more important, then it's better to stay private.
>Elon Musk’s trust holds 54% of the outstanding shares of SpaceX and has 78% voting control of the outstanding stock.
https://www.rankred.com/buy-spacex-stock-worth/
And the reality is: what does he have to gain by going public? He's found no shortage of private investment. I see a ton of negatives to being public and almost no downside.
I mean, no one can outvote Zuck in FB, or Page/Brin in Google, Setting up public shares with (effectively) no voting power (unless Brin and Page disagree) turns out to be trivial
Here’s a timeline and analysis from a trader:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-s...
(I have no vested interest here)
But why did Vivint and Sunrun succeed when SolarCity failed? Sunrun apparently had a similar business model and economics. The linked analysis raises this question, although I don't know enough about the solar industry to say whether this is reasonable to ask, or fundamentally an apples-to-oranges comparison.
From a strategy standpoint - a no brainer to purchase what is now energy - he knew all the people there, was already working there, had a big stake there, and they may play an important role in his green energy plan.
For everyone saying he should have bought some chinese solar co - he's focused ons speed, and getting up to speed on a new solar company - why?
Secondarily, how are those solarcity or tesla shareholders doing? How is tesla energy doing? You got to be able to take some risks as the boss, that's why he is there. And no question he takes risks.
It can definitely have an impact on the viability of a company
Has nothing to do with ego.
It turns out when a company has multiple entities with significant resources trying to make it fail, it sometimes negatively affects the shorted company.
There was very much a human cost to all of the FUD the short sellers were spreading.
My theory was less "invest in Elon" and more that there are a few different scenarios (on decade+ timescales) where either Tesla acquires SpaceX or vice-versa. Seemed like the most practical way to possibly own SpaceX shares one day - even if the probabilities are slim.
It's a nicely hedged bet though. Because worst case, I've just invested in some (not much) TSLA stock.
Idiot CEOs are a self-correcting problem. The rules are there because of smart scoundrel CEOs scamming idiot Investors.
The highway down my parent's house was supported by muni (state-level bonds). I bought bonds to support a hospital in Detroit (and made lots of money on that!!). Etc. etc.
Look up muni-bonds: they support highways, bridges, hospitals, and other infrastructure. I don't know if there's any for NASA specifically, but plenty of options if you actually want to invest in the country itself.
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The main downside is that they're tax-free, which means their interest rates are set such that they assume you're a millionare. So if you're paying anything less than the top-tier tax bracket, you're kinda wasting money on a risk/reward basis. That is to say: if "normal bonds" are getting 4% right now, all the munis would be priced at you'd get roughly 2.52%, assuming the top tax bracket of 37%. All bonds have a level of risk that's graded on a sliding scale: AAA bonds are the lowest risk (and lowest %rate), and C being the lowest.
Funny how that works? You write the laws so to favor muni-bonds by making them largely tax free, and then suddenly the free-market takes away the advantage lol.
The advantage is still there, it just goes to the municipalities issuing the bonds (where it gets passed on to taxpayers).
As someone who'd like to buy more munis however, I'm frustrated that I don't get a "piece" of the tax-savings. But you're right, the perspective is about reducing the %rates that cities / states pay, not about increasing the $$$ in my pocket as an investor.
https://www.mrmarvinallen.com/what-fidelity-funds-hold-space...
Google (Alphabet) owns a big chunk of SpaceX, maybe around $7B worth now? Given their market cap of 1.856T, that ends up being ~ 0.38% SpaceX.
(I only know the basics of investing)
If you're on a canal boat or something along those lines you've got a lot better 4G coverage depending on what country you live in. Having said that, none of the canal boat dwellers I've spoken to have worked in tech and most of them commuted into cities so their need for fast and reliable internet wasn't as strong. I imagine permanently moored houseboats have decent WiFi links as well, though I've never really looked into that kind of thing.
My reading of this news[0] is that they're using much larger phased arrays that sit flat on the deck/roof. 100% electronic steering.
Granted, that's speculation on my part based on a decade of military satellite operations. Starlink stated that they are larger, higher gain, lower power usage, and won't shoot below 25 degrees azimuth. That says to me a 2-4x surface area, lays flat, phased array panel.
I wouldn't expect much drop in speed, even in the worst waters, except for rain fade and if the roll of the boat causes a satellite to go out of sight to the dish. In those scenarios, I think most people can live with Netflix being barely functional.
0: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/08/starl...
You'll need a fairly large boat to host the satellite dome I believe, and they aren't cheap.
> 100-watt panels vary in size based on their efficiency and design, but typically measure around 47 x 21.3 x 1.4 inches.
Says google. Add four of those and some lead acid batteries and you should be able to get 100 watt 24x7. Or only 200 watts of solar if you are ok with not using 24x7
Unfortunately even an accredited investor can't purchase SpaceX shares because they are not available. You have to be a really big investor to buy shares directly from SpaceX in one of their funding rounds. You can't purchase shares from employees because of trading restrictions. Your options are limited to participation in consortiums or funds and these tend to have really bad terms.
grease some palms if you have to, the consequences aren't always/necessarily your problem
the restrictions are either contractual and discretionary by the issuer, and/or the secondary sale is the issuer's regulatory problem but the accredited-only status can absolve
If you believe that the launch market could increase by 10x if costs fall by 10x then a 50 Billion/year revenue is achievable within 5-10 years. Satellite internet is a direct bet on this outcome by betting that Spacex could capture substantial portions of the ISP market.
Ultimately as an investor you have to buy into this hypothesis to invest, and success will only occur if you invest a few 10s of billions. Therefore SpaceX will have a valuation in the hundreds of billions less all shareholders immediately dilute themselves. It probably helps that there are a large number of hundred billionaires interested in Space exploration.
> The Global Space Launch Services Market size was estimated at USD 12.86 Billion in 2020 and expected to reach USD 14.92 Billion in 2021, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 16.29% from 2020 to 2026 to reach USD 31.84 Billion by 2026.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/space-launch-services-market...
https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/cislunar-space-next...
Who knows what growth would be like with much cheaper launch but I'm hoping high.
There are a large number of interesting economic opportunities from resource extraction to supersized science experiments and energy production once we're out of the gravity well at reasonable economics.
I realize the US security and military apparatus has gladly been turning a blind eye to Musk's ties with the CCP, but at some point reality imposes itself on you. You can only ignore it for so long, much to the chagrin of the Trump and Biden administrations.
Think space stations, lunar outposts, mining and manufacturing.
Edit: I have no idea if the more modest capabilities of starship/super heavy justify the current valuation, but they at least seem like they would be useful capabilities to maintain.
Plus they can expand the real state in the ISS much cheaper by just docking and leaving it there.
they are one of the most important companies in the world in terms of national security. Musk has said publicly they are talking to the military about making resupply anywhere on the planet possible within 1 hour. They are also multiples cheaper than any competitor in terms of getting things into orbit
https://futurism.com/the-byte/spacex-building-military-rocke...
One certainty is that those private investors involved are already set to take some of their profits on IPO day which means they will dump some of the shares to catch out the retail investors immediately rushing to purchase SpaceX shares at very high prices.
Not saying you shouldn't buy at all, but keep in mind that institutional investors are there to make money and will get their return on investment and can/will manipulate the stock to make even more.
So yeah if you wouldn’t sell after a 300% gain like me, maybe it’s worth paying a 50% premium (between the markup, carry, fees etc). but I am not buying more. It’s not like they give you priority bandwidth on starlink.
"SpaceX’s new valuation makes it one of the rare private “centicorn” or “hectocorn” companies in the world"
For anyone that's interested I'd really recommend just going back and reading the original piece, the regime of profits uber allis that we've lived under for decades is much stronger than even what he was arguing for in that piece.
Nicotine being generally available could have provided significant amounts of social benefits by allowing people to self-medicate. Current healthcare systems are absolutely not adequate for picking up the slack and that's if the healthcare system is even willing to treat those people (ADHD treatment in some European countries is tricky).
While it was certainly bad how much cigarettes were pushed and I do think this caused more harm than good, it still probably had benefits.
My own opinion is that profits and social value have become mostly misaligned a few decades ago already.
I know that last one is controversial in the US, but I'm a Brit and a conservative voting one at that, and over here and in Europe generally it really isn't at any significant level.
Some enterprises, particularly general social services and infrastructure just work very well as charitable trusts, or non profits. This has been shown to be effective for hundreds of years. Then for-profit enterprises can work alongside them to mutual benefit, such as medical products companies working along with health services. It's just a matter of which model works best in practice in a function, ideology be hanged.
As we're on the subject of SpaceX the NASA model worked very well for a while, but ran into the ground with the Shuttle. Now we seem to be back with a productive synergistic relationship between public and private functions.
There's been plenty of failures of profit seeking as a social good that may have been avoided if companies felt a duty to society beyond profit seeking.
In the very long-term SpaceX will likely get to Mars and will get to make a claim for a significant amount of real estate and natural resources. Along the way I'm sure they will come up with many more revenue streams.
One way or another, space is going to end up being a valuable industry if only by virtue of the fact that access to space will be a critical national security issue - imagine if China monopolized access to space and could take down satellites at will.
Iron isn't worth much by the pound. But what if you could mine a solid chunk a few times the size of Everest?
I don't know, I find that very unlikely to be the case. If ever there was value in "being first", this is the mother load.
The closest analogy I can think of is the arrival of European powers in the New World. Sure, it's strange, inhospitable and downright dangerous, but even if you fuck everything up along the way and thousands of people die, you're still reaping outsized rewards.
Space is an order of magnitude more inhospitable than the Americas, but (a) so is our understanding of the technology and the universe and (b) humans don't actually need to be in Mars for humanity to effectively reach mars.
Maybe if asteroid mining becomes a viable business, Mars' shallower gravity well and higher orbit around the sun might give it a significant enough competitive advantage for bulk goods like fuel and water that may be needed in the asteroid belt. Still, that's a lot of "ifs" and "mights", for what is, even in the best-case scenario, very long-term venture.
Its usually best to assume anything a corporate founder, executive, or PR rep says in public about the corporation, its mission, or their personal ambition regarding it is a calculated effort to promote the business interests of the corporation by shaping public perception, and only coincident with the truth to the extent that there is a likelihood that the truth happens to be convenient, or that falsehood or silence would be detectable and have adverse consequences.
There’s also quite a lot of opportunity of Starship is successfully “fully and rapidly reusable”. Point to point transport of cargo and potentially even humans, etc.
Falcon 9 already launches more than 50% of all Payload sent to orbit today.
They will have the launch airline or cargo service company too not just build starship and get regulatory approvals, promote, sell tickets/capacity and provide customer service etc.
All risky steps in a possible side use case for the starship program. Realistically none of this happening before mars missions start likely 2030s.