Brexit is ‘going badly,’ say Brits in new poll | Hacker News Reader

Brexit is ‘going badly,’ say Brits in new poll

politico.eu

43 pointsbelltaco49 comments

These repercussions were known before the vote so how’s it going can have a double take. I feel the Brexiters were duped into leaving the EU for no direct benefit to themselves, outside the ruling class of course. The pain will not be short lived and the transition will be a big headache for years to come. It’s extremely hard to predict ahead of time whether this move will eventually pay off down the road.

The entire benefit is depending on how much you value autonomy. I feel like there was no real argument from pragmatics (I mean there was the NHS claims for dupes) but really it was „what is independence worth to you?”

For the lead Brexiteers it’s alpha and omega and no suffering will dissuade them.

The thing with autonomy is, that you have to be built to exercise it. If you are an adult impulsively leaving your parents house in a rainy night is a hassle, but you are accurly aware what you are getting yourself into. If you are a kid, you can do the same thing, but you don't know what awaits you, you are not autonomous because you are a playball of the forces you didn't even knew existed.

One can now ask themselves whether the UK truly is "more autonomous" now that they merely react to things much bigger players can now force onto them. In my eyes they had more autonomy when they had a seat at the table.

I can't recall who it was, but someone compared UK to a teenager who moves into their parents garage and declares themselves independent (and acts surprised when they now have to pay the electrical bill for said garage).

Note: I have nothing against autonomy, but it needs to be realistic and respectful. E.g. you cannot tell your spouse that the relationship needs to be more open and then scold her when she starts seeing other people.

The realistic take on Brexit always was that there was a lot to loose in practical terms, while the freedoms won are of symbolic nature and can only be seen if you squinch your eyes in just the right way. And this is not what was promised.

Yes, for the Scots and Northern Irish too. They value autonomy allright. Does that nean we should go back to city states now?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanseatic_League

It gets tried from time to time. You didn't make an argument for why it is a bad thing. The biggest atrocities are routinely committed by the biggest countries.

It's not bad, just anachronic. That was in the 12th century. Now there are >7bn of people on this planet, and greater challenges, economic or otherwise. Let's just say you'd either want to be banking other more powerful countries' money or gold reserves, like Switzerland, or have some kind of nuclear capability for protection against bullies, like Israel or North Korea do, maybe put on a show once in a while.

That isn't really a strong argument for why it is necessary and proper for Scottish people to be ruled from London.

The idea of local Scottish people governing themselves doesn't seem horrifying. They could team up with England for defence purposes and share an army without the rest of the administrative baggage.

If the argument against city states is that they're uncommon, that isn't much of an argument. English global colonialism and hegemony has been pretty common for the last 200 years and it is a stretch to say it is the desirable equilibrium. A globe made up of small city states might be more pleasant to live in.

Similarly, "if England doesn't rule you, someone else will!" is ... not a strong argument if they aren't happy with English rule.

I see what you mean, however the Scots have their own Parliament and two governments (Scottish and UK). They could transfer some more power from the UK government to Scotland through further negotiations or proclaim independence. The latter however has its disadvantages, as the supposedly newly created Scotland would not be part of any union and then there's also the case of the UK's nuclear weapons controlled by the London government. Thus I personally believe negotiation is the better option, especially now that the London government is in a weakened position due to 'brexit going badly'.

https://www.deliveringforscotland.gov.uk/scotland-in-the-uk/...

I doubt a country teams up with other countries for defence purposes as long as they don't also share the defence costs, the exception here being the US. Of course, this comes at the price of hosting US troops and installations operated by the US on foreign soil and also becoming a potential target to US enemies.

This also doesn't quite work if for instance Texas were to secede from the US and then asked for US protection if it got attacked by Mexico. The US would probably occupy Texas and told them to shut up and put up with the US military or the federal government in charge of running the show.

What other options does Scotland have, ask France for military protection? Because the EU does not yet have an army.

Smaller states do tend to be better behaved. Can’t make as many mistakes.

Yes, only Russia, China and the US and to a lesser extent the EU will easily bully them. Just take a look at any of their neighbours. Most of Russia's neighbours aren't its frinds. Same goes for China. Kyrghystan went from being a colony of Russia to becoming a colony of China. Mongolia might end up there as well. Canada (#9) and Mexico (#18) are big states. Cuba, Guatemala or Nicaragua not so much. The EU is not as much a bully rather than a bigger brother, but somehow manages to push Switzerland into submission and would also try it with the UK as well (fishing rights). Serbia and North Macedonia both manage to obtain EU funds through different partnership projects with some hope of acession as a full EU member.

Not if neighboring states are of comparable size.

There's little substance to this statement as 1) the same polling showed a 15% difference from June implying a huge variance - and - that it's likely just a measure of public sentiment (in June, when the result was 15% higher, the UK was doing really well in terms of vaccinations) and 2) it's arrogantly false to suggest 'there are no benefits' to being an independent country, the implication that Norway/Switzerland are similarly 'duped' or that Canada should obviously just be a US State given the much closer rapport they have with the US than the UK does with the Continent, and finally 3) EU integration issues are relatively minimal compared to the much more fundamental issues that the UK and EU face in a rapidly changing world.

The only way to 'judge' Brexit is to stack up the materiality of the issues - all of them - of course trade, finance and services, but especially those we don't talk about so much such as the democratic deficit at the EU, and the giant legal issues with respect to the 'supremacy' of the ECJ, which was never codified in treaty and is still, in 2021 totally unresolved [1], which if you think about it for a moment is not only bizarre, it speaks to a gaping hole in the competency of the bureaucracy itself. The UK has legal ambiguity due to the fact the laws are ancient, so there's an excuse there. But with the EU, it's a relatively modern institution, there's no excuse for basically the total lack of legal grounding at the ECJ level.

[1] https://euobserver.com/opinion/152160

Trust me when I say, not a single brexiter was duped, nor regrets their decision.

Though you can keep thinking that if it makes you feel better.

For those who are not familiar with UK's current situation, there have been a number of shortages over the last few months, in food and petrol particularly.

Of course Brexit isn't the sole cause, but it was widely publicised that the UK was offering temporary visas (until Christmas Eve) to attract heavy goods drivers from the EU, with very poor uptake. They've had to bring in some army heavy goods drivers. Brexit is very much on people's minds at the moment with relation to factors immediately impacting them (queueing at the petrol station and seeing empty shelves)

I should add that I'm in Australia and I'm not full bottle on UK's current situation myself, so I'm happy for someone to correct me.

I think the British people who voted for Brexit can really go fuck themselves with their visas. I'm happy there is scant uptake.

As a Pole who spent in the UK seven years being bullied for the audacity of keeping a job there and being likened to vermin I really truly have had it with their attitude towards foreigners. That said, I had a thick skin and I put up with the abuse for way longer than I should have. But the day my son was born I noped out of that place for good. I pictured the abuse and bullying he was going to face purely on the account of his last name and I said, fuck it - no amount of money can compensate for such a toxic environment.

C'mon Brits, you wanted no foreign workers - you got your wish granted, quit complaining! Brexit mean brexit, sleep in the bed you made.

From Pew [1]

55% of Poles think that Migrants 'are a burden' while 21% believe that migrants 'make their nation stronger' - one of the lowest in Europe.

62% of UK citizens believe migrants 'make their country stronger' while only 29% believe they're a 'burden' - the highest ratio in Europe on this data point.

This data is very consistent and shows that the UK is by far among (if not the most) open and tolerant towards migrants relative to other European nations, while Poland is consistently among the lowest ahead of only Greece, which is facing a migrant crisis.

So maybe it's Poles who think the UK owes them something - and then blatantly lie about national attitudes towards migration ... can 'go fuck themselves' ? (your words, not mine)

"you wanted no foreign workers" - this is total rubbish - that's not what Brexit was about, it's another of the common and fairly blatant anti-Brexit lies.

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-cred...

99% of a population might love you, but if the last 1% throw bricks it's still a toxic place...

I suspect it's the behaviour of people at the ends of the scale that matter, not the opinion of the median Brit/Pole

Those things tend to be correlated and nobody is throwing sticks at Poles in the UK.

>this is total rubbish - that's not what Brexit was about, it's another of the common and fairly blatant anti-Brexit lies.

Okay, in that case you can show the EU the middle finger by offering a more progressive visa system than what the EU (it's member countries) has.

There seems to be a lack of argument here. What do you think the relative pro- and con- are of the UK's visa system vs the rest of Europe? Is it particularly difficult for a foreigner to get in to the UK?

Note that London has unusually high concentrations of foreign-born inhabitants, for example. It isn't clear to an outsider which will have more unfriendly policies between the UK and Europe.

This is plain whataboutism. I have no intention to defend my compatriots' xenophobia. That issue is orthogonal to what's been happening to me in Britain. And for what it's worth I didn't settle in Poland but again that's a non-sequitor and has no bearing on what's being talked about.

It's not whataboutism - it's direct evidence that repudiates your invented views of ostensible anti-Polish bigotry in the UK.

What does Poland have to do with this actual conversation? Seems like a bit of whataboutism

I think he’s just getting in a cheap shot at the post he’s replying to, whose author happened to be Polish.

As you say, it’s whataboutism - nothing that the Polish people think is in any way relevant to the disgusting anti-foreigner media frenzy of the right-wing press prior to Brexit.

Brexit was xenophobia in a sheer dress, made up to the nines, and wiggling its way down a Tory-blue carpet dragging the mindless and the easily-led along behind. It was opium for the masses while the masters made a killing. It was tragedy.

Brexit may mean Brexit (whatever that was supposed to mean), but it translates to the real world as “Bullshit” very well. Oh, and I’m a Brit.

"Nothing that the Polish people think is in any way relevant to the disgusting anti-foreigner media frenzy of the right-wing press prior to Brexit."

This is complete nonsense.

I've presented direct evidence that the UK is the least hostile to migrants in all of Europe - and would add these Pew polls (and other studies) are quite consistent among one another - and quite consistent over time as well.

You'll find that PISA test scoring (see 2018 results) shows that the UK stands alone in Europe whereupon immigrant children score just as well as UK born children, once normalizing for income (i.e. middle class immigrants do just as well as middle class UK born), while in Germany, Sweden, and even Finland which is noted for it's academic excellence, completely fail their migrant children, with migrants scoring considerably lower than locally born students.

It's counter rational and factual nonsense that the UK is hostile to migrants overall, or that the 'right wing' hates or is bigoted towards migrants.

It's entirely reasonable for a nation to want to have control over it's migration policy, even Quebec, a Province of Canada, which is not even a legal nation - has control over it's own migration ingress.

The purposeful conflation of the reasonable position of 'Controlling migration policy and having fewer migrants', with the more extreme position of 'Right wing rabid migrant hate', is one of the many 'Big Lies' of the EU authoritarians.

Come to Australia. Sadly we still have racism, but mostly directed towards people without good English skills.

Thanks. I'm in Canada and I'm very happy here. I've not encountered here anywhere near the amount of xenophobia that I did in Britain.

Australia was actually an alternative I considered but the tech sector was stronger in Canada at the time (late nineties)

Temporary visas in post-brexit UK? Not that great. And quite a typical English arrogance for that matter: "we're short staffed so we'll give you a time limited offer to work on a remote island away from your friends and family at the same rates as you could earn on the continent". Why thank you, but no. Payment or tax incentives might be different on the other hand. Also, brace for construction staff shortages. Currently the UK is the laughing stock of the EU 27.

3 months of work for professional workers... Don't seem too enticing unless person has entirely screwed up at home. I could see migrants from outside EU, but would those be eligible?

From the outside, I can’t see a single positive repercussion of Brexit.

There seemed to be a bit of a win in vaccine procurement relative to the EU early pandemic.

The timing's turned out pretty un/fortunate (depending on your point of view; regardless of political side of it) with the coronavirus - complicating what's due how much to which, whether either can be blamed, affected the ability to respond to each other, etc.

This was not a Brexit dividend, as participation in the procurement was optional, and it was undertaken while still a member of the single market. The same strategy could have been pursued while a member of the bloc.

the AUKUS submarine deal is pretty recent

there is absolutely no way that undermining France would have been on the table when the UK was part of the EU common defence

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20...

It's not surprising as half (almost) the original vote went to the remain choice.

If you mean that people who voted to Remain in the EU will always say Brexit is going badly, then this series of surveys does not support that argument:

"53 percent said it was going badly, a rise of 15 percentage points from June"

edit: direct links to the survey results

June 21: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20...

Sept 29: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20...

But are they controlling for vote? (Or better for 'how would you vote now, assuming the EU Commission/Brexiting government goes on as you'd like'.)

I assume this poll's just going to follow the news cycle, with different voters more inclined to respond accordingly.

>But are they controlling for vote?

They did ask. Click on the Politics tab above the survey results at YouGov

But, in any case, a broadly-representative sample population will naturally reflect the original Brexit voting ratios, approximately (if YouGov can't even conduct a survey professionally, then we can stop wasting time discussing this, and ignore everything from them)

> a broadly-representative sample population will naturally reflect the original Brexit voting ratios, approximately

Yes but that's not what you want? Surely you want to remove the effect of that, have 50% who would vote each way, so that ideology is removed and the results are purely about 'how it's going'?

No, I think that's totally the wrong way to think about it. It's not about 'what you want', or 'removing effects', it's about trying to represent the actual population of the country as accurately as you can, but with a sample group of only a few thousand people

Ideally, you'd just hope to be able pick people at random, and as long as the group isn't too small, it will naturally reflect the general preferences of the entire population - though in reality it's not likely to be so easy, not least because some people don't want to participate in your survey

Well to me that's a different question from 'how is it going' ('going badly say Brits') - I'm not saying it's not a useful question, just different.

The full question is:

> The EU transition period ended on Dec 31st 2020. Since then, do you think Brexit has gone well or badly?

but as I commented elsewhere in this thread, compared to what? If your baseline is (as it likely is) that it is a good or not good idea at all. An answer (that the poll couldn't get) might be 'I think a better job's being done and it's going better than I thought possible, but we're in a worse place than if we'd never left'. Another might be 'we were right to leave and I stand by that but this execution is terrible'.

I just noticed there as at least a break down by leave/remain vote in the 'politics' tab: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/20... - I suppose I just think that should be front and centre as the main result, it makes more sense to me (not parties so much, just the referendum vote) than 'all adults'. I think it's much more interesting. It shows exactly the bias from that that you'd expect, but also weighted towards the 'bad' end from 'leave' vote more than 'remain' is toward 'good' - which makes the same point as overall of course, I just find it more convincing.

>I just noticed there as at least a break down by leave/remain vote in the 'politics' tab

How could you have 'just noticed' this? I pointed it out to you more than a day earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28780429

You're not paying attention. It's impossible to have a discussion.

-(if YouGov can't even conduct a survey professionally, then we can stop wasting time discussing this, and ignore everything from them)

Exactly! Since they messed up with Brexit and Trump i have been confidently ignoring every single poll that's emerged. I wonder what it would look like if our politicians did the same. It seems that the current government can only ever react to things.

>Since they [YouGov] messed up with Brexit and Trump i have been confidently ignoring every single poll that's emerged.

Please look at the last 4 YouGov polls in the week before the Brexit vote[0]. Two show a very slim majority for Leave, and two had a very slim majority for Remain.

In the event, a very slim majority voted for Leave. Those polls were remarkably accurate for such a small sample size, and well within a reasonable margin of error (2-4 percentage points in that case).

You're confidently choosing to ignore useful data because you will only accept perfect data. But that doesn't exist.

[0] https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

What's surprising is the shift towards negative opinion. There's been a massive change since June. Not everyone who voted remain necessarily thought it was going poorly.

Along those lines it also seems a bit open to interpretation to me - if you voted 'remain' and always thought and still think it's an awful idea, from what baseline do you answer 'how is it going'? Does 'going well' mean 'absolutely' well - 'better than remaining', or just relatively; 'better than I thought it could, but still worse than having remained'?

People who thought they could "have their cake and eat it" are now mystified that having eaten the cake, the plate appears to be empty. I wonder what people are going to think if there ends up being a hard border between England and Scotland, which seems like a risk if /when an independent Scotland rejoins the EU. I suppose the English will blame the EU, the Scots, anyone but ourselves....

Bread

In the thread. People blaming covid supply chain issues in brexit.

I forgot only UK had the pandemic, and the European HGV drivers and farm workers all died from the virus.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com