New Zealand abandons goal of eliminating virus and will lift restrictions
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
1. The government is spending ~$1B a week on lock-downs JUST with Auckland at 'level 3 and 4' - something that's unsustainable.
2. The public health system has NOT been adequately bolstered in the last year to cope with the inevitability of elimination failure. This is a huge problem, as our health-care system is massively over-leveraged and critical works are grossly under-paid when compared to other countries. Australia for example offer safer working conditions and vastly more pay. Nurses in particular have been fighting for a long time via unions to improve conditions. Protests etc are banned under COVID lock-down laws. Nurses are quitting in droves.
3. Elimination was NEVER a valid response, as it required all other countries to follow suit (and no, vaccination wasn't going to result in full protection). NZ is fully dependent on trade, immigration and tourism for its economy - the notion of lock-downs was laughable to begin with.
4. The social cost has been EXTRAORDINARY
5. The mental cost has been overwhelming
6. I have contacts in government, and exploring an alternative strategy to elimination has only BEGUN to be investigated in the last few weeks. So the entire strategy has been short-sighted and arrogant.
7. Vaccination rates are still poor, despite high availability of the Vaccine.
8. Exporters are rapidly sending jobs/manufacturing/supply off shore.
9. NZ has an obesity problem, and an aging population. Both are high predictors for poor health outcomes with COVID.
10. We've spent huge amounts (across multiple dimensions) on a failed strategy, and is increasingly showing to be for no gain but delaying the inevitable while failing to prepare
In summary. We have an aging and unhealthy population, a crumbling health system bracing for an impending Tsunami, a failed strategy, a plethora of social and economic issues, low vaccination and a government who public enjoys large popularity but has made all the wrong strategic decisions in isolation.
We are on path for major disaster.
2. Agreed. As far as I can tell basically zero extra capacity (facilities or staffing has been built out over the last 18 months). I do understand that extra staffing could be difficult but surly a few hundred million for temporary hospitals wold at least allow for more bed space.
3.I don't entirely agree with this. If a short sharp lockdown could eliminate the virus and buy a couple of months to prepare I think that is a worthwhile endeavour. I don't think repeated lockdowns are worth it though, certainly now 18 months later.
4. Agreed.
5. Agreed.
6. The events of the last couple of weeks are certainly uncovering a staggering amount of incompetence in the government and public service.
7. The delay in starting the vaccine rollout is hard to excuse but uptake seems to be roughly inline with similar developed countries.
So, if anyone thinks this would be a good thing to do outside of NZ, the reality is probably, "no".