The decreasing cost of renewables unlikely to plateau anytime soon

This reminds me of this chart showing underestimation of solar growth by the International Energy Agency for decades:

https://twitter.com/aukehoekstra/status/931869221386104832

One of the best charts I've ever seen at making a point.

Since I'm sharing solar charts here is one of solar panel efficiencies which is another of my all-time favorite charts: https://www.nrel.gov/pv/cell-efficiency.html

To avoid misleading, I want to clarify that the reduction in cost of solar energy has been driven far more by manufacturing scale than by efficiency improvements (although they are also relevant).

In order to follow through on this predictions we should set a date, say 2025 where no more fossil fuel plants are allowed to be built with the remaining plants having a planned decommission table of a maximum 25 years.

This way we eliminate all the fossil fuel subsidies, and we give a huge incitement to build out renewables in order to avoid blackouts. It would also highlight any dependencies that renewables energy has that might involve addition costs not accounted for in the forecast.

The linked study makes the bet that green hydrogen, a technology which is a few times more expensive than nuclear, and lithium batteries, a technology which is economical viable for a few hours of capacity, should be able to out compete fossil fuels on price for managing a month long period of the full grid capacity. Hope is that they are right. A law forbidding new expansion of fossil fuel plants would distinctly help to push it, and if some part of the investments went to nuclear we would have some backup plan if it doesn't.

I can't wait to get solar on my house. I would love to be able to run my A/C guilt free without thinking about the power bill all the time. I can imagine a time when solar is so cheap it's just a natural part of having a house like running water and toilets. Still though, waiting on prices and availability in my area.

Thanks for sharing. I hope this Oxford study will end up on some policy maker tables.