Would the US get involved if this would escalate?
> The US has no official ties with Taiwan but does have a law which requires it to provide the island with the means to defend itself.
Further reading:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/17/taiwan-welcome...
US intervention would require a flashpoint. China seems intent on a slow boil. The way to undermine China is to offer full US citizenship to Taiwanese and assist in their relocation...after all, Taiwan is a story of human capital, not natural resources. Let China take the land but lose the people.
That doesn't mean it's smart. In actuality, China is doing a great job at destroying its reputation around the world and bringing countries together in preparation for a great conflict.
Japan is remilitarizing. Australia has awakened to the Chinese threat (when it looked for some time like China could have neutralized it). India is hip to China's aggression. The Quad is expanding and starting to look more like an alliance than a "security dialog".
Basically, China has done almost everything wrong. But there's a reason for that: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-unite...
> They are going to continue these soft provocations until incursions are expected, and happen, weekly or even daily.
They have been happening daily for years already. And China doesn't just menace Taiwan this way. It does the same to Japan.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/asia/japan-china-fighter-jet-...
> China seems intent on a slow boil.
What China doesn't seem to realize is that it's the frog. The flashpoint is likely to come when the CCP realizes that and faces domestic turmoil.
Finally, I notice you edited your comment to remove the part about the Taiwanese people becoming "pro-unification". I'm an expat living in Taiwan right now and this is an unrealistic and uneducated suggestion.
The vast majority of people in Taiwan see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese, and this trend has only increased in recent years. Among young people, this is even more pronounced, so when all of the KMT old timers die off, the number of people in Taiwan who have any affinity for China will be miniscule.
The reason China is trying to intimidate Taiwan is that it fears Taiwan is slipping away. In reality, Taiwan never belonged to China in the first place.
The amount of casualties in those countries would be crippling in any scenario I can imagine. This pushes me to the conclusion that Taiwan will be reabsorbed by mainland without a bullet being fired.
In modern combat, and for the type of conflict that's coming, a multimillion man army that has virtually no real-world experience matters less than you think.
> I doubt Japan and Australia can restrain China.
It's not going to be just Japan and Australia.
> This pushes me to the conclusion that Taiwan will be reabsorbed by mainland without a bullet being fired.
Interesting language. Taiwan can't be "reabsorbed" because it wasn't a part of China to begin with.
China is going to have to fire more than bullets if it wants to try to take Taiwan.
Two sovereign entities both presiding over the china landmass predating ww-2 had Taiwan within their territory sovereignty to begin with??????
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qing_dynasty