Six more zeros are to be removed from Venezuelan currency
en.mercopress.com
en.mercopress.com
No need to impose sanctions if major market and investor (USSR) just collapsed.
It’s like thinking a program you wrote only has one bug.
Three zeros in 2008, five in 2018, six more now.
More on what this is like for ordinary Venezuelans at https://www.huffpost.com/entry/venezuela-new-currency_n_6156...: "Under the old system, a two-liter bottle of soda pop could cost more than 8 million bolivars."
Mocking the situation helps nobody. But Venezuelans had fair and free elections not that long ago. The precursors to these policies were wilfully elected into office by the populace. That confers at least some responsibility; more than in the cases of kings, colonisers, invaders or revolutionaries.
Venezuelan elections have been widely critized as shams and have been largely boycotted by opposition parties in Venezuela.
Venezuela has significant oil wealth but has been ruled by a corrupt and autocratic single party for decades that has squandered and embezzled that wealth.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-18288430
Never give up your right to bear arms Americans!
You can trust it because you have enough observers, whom are indeed important to select well (covering all the biases). They monitor the voting and counting to make cheating on a large scale a large conspiracy, which by definition must have large public support.
I doubt that there are many people that will be really hit by it, because it is like rain in a tsunami.
You can always save in real assets. Why does everyone want to save in a promise that someone else will work for you?
It is a joke. The world we live in is absurd. Government inflates its own currency so bad it wipes out the entire economy. Citizens are left holding worthless paper. That happened in my country too. It could happen in yours. Actually it's only a matter of time before it happens to every currency in the world: they're all inflationary. The solution? More of the same. Start from scratch by creating a new currency to inflate. This is exactly what they did. Multiple times.
We either laugh at this insanity or we cry.
Also, it's perfectly possible to inflate bitcoin despite its fixed supply. It's possible to inflate any currency. Implement fractional reserve banking on top of it. New coins will be created through loans, inflating the currencies.
Bitcoin is already used in lots of countries which suffer from inflation. It doesn't seem to be a failure. In El Salvador, there are more people with a bitcoin wallet than people with a bank account. More than 30% of people in Nigeria have used bitcoin. It's also popular in Venezuela.
FRB is not a problem, because bitcoin can and should be owned non-custodially. Paper bitcoins created by a bank wouldn't be compatible with actual bitcoins, and wouldn't expand its supply.
Because its technology is obsolete. Monero is everything bitcoin set out to be and more.
> Do you think that Bitcoin is too easy to stop for governments?
Absolutely. The public blockchain is actually more transparent than the banking system. To stop bitcoin transactions they don't even need to attack nodes or whatever. Bitcoins aren't fungible. Governments can just remove them from circulation at any time by making it illegal to accept them. Exchanges already refuse tainted coins. Some even refuse to deal with private wallets at all.
> Bitcoin is already used in lots of countries which suffer from inflation.
I don't disagree with this. It seems to work well as protection against inflation. Got to the point some governments got pissed about it because nobody was using their worthless currencies anymore and that took away their power to set monetary policy.
> FRB is not a problem, because bitcoin can and should be owned non-custodially.
Very few people actually do this. Huge fees, inherent risks. Most people keep their coins in exchanges. They're the new banks.
> Paper bitcoins created by a bank wouldn't be compatible with actual bitcoins, and wouldn't expand its supply.
There are no paper bitcoins. It's already happening at the exchanges. The coins sitting in people's accounts are undoubtedly being loaned out. Users even receive interest.
Goverments, especially in poor countries, are starting to advocate for Bitcoin, so it seems that 'government banning' is not an actual threat. For some governments it is, but people can move out. They couldn't use Monero either if it's illegal to accept.
Yeah and it sucks. I hate how popular bitcoin is despite being the worst cryptocurrency in existence. Meanwhile, monero can actually be used as private digital cash right now but nobody knows about it.
> However, Lightning Network makes bitcoin more fungible and private, so I'm not worried about that.
It also makes it less decentralized. What's the point of the blockchain if you need this high level stuff?
Bank dollars (your account balance) aren't compatible with coin machines and yet we still use them as if they are the same thing.
By contrast, BTC, with an algorithmically determined monetary policy, does actually solve the issue. And the other issues that you raise, i.e. that a highly volatile asset is a poor unit of account, are not actually issues -- you can simply transact in USD (or a stablecoin) for most day to day matters, while having the ability to always revert to BTC or other assets as an uninflatable store of wealth when desired.
You seem to imply that all inflation is inevitably a buildup for hyperinflation, but there is no mechanism for that.
Why not deflation? Can't be worse than governments that mint trillions out of nowhere.
> Why are you so sure of that?
I'm not. Is anyone? These governments don't seem to be sure either. We wouldn't have these problems if they were.
> an additional zero or two within the span of a lifetime is not a problem waiting to be solved
The loss of purchasing power implied by those extra zeroes is a huge problem. Inflation is basically a constant unconditional tax on everyone holding the currency. This is absolutely a problem that needs to be solved. People solve it by spending or investing their money. Anything's better than holding the inflationary currency.
> You seem to imply that all inflation is inevitably a buildup for hyperinflation
Not really. All government currencies inflate. There's absolutely no doubt their value will approach zero given enough time. The only question is how quickly it will happen. Hyperinflation just means the government screwed up so bad the inflation started accelerating out of control.
It would require negative interest rates and it would also require people to acknowledge that we need a more flexible labor market rather than one where full time jobs pile up on fewer people. Let's consider an extreme example. Everyone adopts Bitcoin and everyone has the bare minimum expenses. They pay rent and bake their own bread. The amount of work hours needed to support this lifestyle is 8 hours per week.
Let's say that everyone wants this lifestyle but everyone still wants to work full time. That would imply that there is one full time job for every 5 people with 1 person being employed and 4 unemployed and you would now have to engage in income sharing (you know, welfare, unemployment benefits, universal basic income). If people worked according to how much they demand themselves (everyone works 8 hours), then everyone would be employed and everyone would be getting their fair share of work.
Before you say that some of them will demand more than 8 hours of work. These people should work more than 8 hours.
>The loss of purchasing power implied by those extra zeroes is a huge problem. Inflation is basically a constant unconditional tax on everyone holding the currency. This is absolutely a problem that needs to be solved. People solve it by spending or investing their money. Anything's better than holding the inflationary currency.
What function does holding onto the currency serve other than decreasing demand for labor? Why should we compensate anyone for their reduction in the demand for labor? The logic behind interest is that someone wants to invest and the lack of labor requires prioritization according the yield of the investment. If people decrease demand for labor without a corresponding desire to invest by borrowers they simply get nothing. It's actually worse, if demand for labor is lower than supply of labor then the excess labor simply decays through unemployment (labor cannot be stored) which implies a negative yield on your money which is why inflation is an approximation of negative interest rates.
So, perfect money would have 0% inflation or deflation but it would probably have negative interest to encourage people to avoid the economic loss of unemployment. If labor decayed at a rate of -2% then people would invest more into durable goods by anticipating future demand. It would be better to build solar panels and wind farms today that may only be profitable in the future. Of course the problem is that some goods are artificially durable like land. Ownership doesn't decay.
Wealth accumulation.
> Why should we compensate anyone for their reduction in the demand for labor?
Why should we not reward people for being responsible with their money? People should be saving it, not spending it all on pointless consumerism. If our money will be more valuable tomorrow than it is today, we would need damn good reasons to part with it. Hopefully industry practices like planned obsolescence would disappear.
No it's not. It's perfectly fine if universal "you owe me"s cannot be held back indefinitely only strike with even more force when unleashed. And I say that as someone who is hit harder by inflation than most because I enjoy liquidity far more than I should, I'm very bad at converting into assets (or even taking up a loan)
Loans are adjusted for inflation already.
A recipe for disaster. No one needs their currency, not even the pathetic internal market, they can't get foreign currency because exports are low (esp. for a country of 30 million). Wat nou?
Chavez is the one who replaced competent leaders with army cronies. Chavez is the one who demolished democracy
Literally killed the goose that lays the golden eggs.
Or are they printing new bills and you can exchange your 1 million old bolivars for one shiny new one?
It is really sad for the all the electricity wasted as a result.
I wonder what's the real impact. Is there an indicator somewhere about Venezuelan use of cryptocurrencies?
The government prints as much of it as it wants, and:
1: Gives it to people who need it (Say to pay rent for their shop so the shop does not go out of business).
2: Takes it from rich people who otherwise would just sit on their ass and let others work for them.
Why does this system of subventions and taxes not work in Venezuela? Why is inflation a problem when money is just a number. Why does it matter how many zeros a price has?
USD bonds are more attractive since they remove the exchange rate risk, but as happened, the government could t repay the debt in USD.
Nobody wants bolivar-denominated debt. Because Caracas keep printing. The U.S. dollar has no divine right to being infinitely valuable.
The U.S. dollar is often the least silly of many options.
There's only one form of money that's retained value for over 6000 years of human civilizatoin.
With a national debt of over 30 trillion, it's amazing that some people can still believe that the US will pay all that debt back.
The USD will crash sooner rather than later.
Disincentivize this function and the few producers still left in the market have less competition, and hence more ability to raise prices. Eliminate the private sector altogether (as the Soviet Union did) and you don't have inflation, you have shortages.
A good read to make sure you get heard here is to read this essay by HNs founder:
Inflation is damaging to ants who keep money aside in case of medical emergency or unemployment or retirement. It also eliminates short term debt interactions, such as where a business buys goods with 30 days to pay. This adds friction across the economy.
If it is a problem that rich people sit on their land holdings and do not use the land to serve the public good, why not simply tax land holdings?
The real rich people own land and assets, but wealth taxes are not popular - because real rich people effectively lobby against it.
Historically, the solution has been violent upheaval every couple of generations. A nonviolent alternative might be an occasional "inverse bankruptcy" lottery or poll cutting off randomly selected and/or particularly unpopular tall poppies. With the right dosage (not too often to not stifle ambition, perhaps aiming for hitting one in ten outliers in their lifetime?). The goal would be to prevent concentration approaching the infinite, not to make people equal (and the victims could still receive a very generous stipend, or wouldn't have to be hard on them at all, at least in day to day material terms)
Rich people own assets, not money. Rich people have debt collateralized by their assets, so they get double benefit from inflation. Their debt gets wiped off, and their asset prices increase. And because they are the ones who get low interest rate debt first, they also benefit from the Cantillion effect, which means that they're not hurt by inflated prices, so much as those who try to buy assets later with their wages.
Inflation hurts workers and entrepreneurs most because their savings are wiped off, and their income or revenue lags behind inflated prices. There is no way to save and use the savings to plan and invest in a better future. The ability to save and invest later is the base of a prosperous economy. Inflation also destroys reliable price signals, which makes it very difficult for an economy to work.
I don't know who told you this but it's completely wrong. People invest first and then tell others to save. Just think about it. You build a factory and tell everyone you will produce more cars in 5 years. You pay interest because you know you can sell them more cars in the future and therefore you can pay more interest than the kebab shop down the street. This means growth of demand is the primary driver of economic growth because growth in demand also results in growth of demand for investments and investments drive demand for savings.
If people just save money without any future demand it's the same thing as choosing to be poor. You have money because you didn't buy a house. You have money because you didn't buy a car. You have money because you didn't buy clothes. You have money because you are poor in real terms.
The weakest assumption of MMT and the reason it isn't considered a school or economics is that issuing government debt won't affect private sector debt.
>The government prints as much of it as it wants
This don't think it's quite fair. MMT thinks that the amount of money it would take to reach full employment is the maximum limit of which you can issue debt. I don't really see how that's much different from just issuing infinite debt though, especially for a case like Venezuela.
In such an economy, there is little difference between the government "printing" a bond and the government "printing" a reserve -- especially as modern economies pay interest on reserves. These are both perfectly liquid instruments, with the government bond being a cash-equivalent. What makes it a cash equivalent is that a modern financial sector is able to convert the liabilities that people want to hold into the liabilities present in the economy, thus in such a modern economy if the government issued a mix of 10% reserves and 90% bonds, but people wanted to hold 50% deposits and 50% debt, then the banking system would step in and convert one into the other (for a small fee).
This is as opposed to most mainstream economies which assume that the liabilities that people hold are the ones the government issues and there is no financial sector to intermediate between the two.
So in the modern economy, it's silly to obsess about the number of reserves but ignore the number of bonds, bonds and reserves are all the same and as there is no difference you might as well only issue reserves that pay whatever the policy interest rate happens to be and stop bothering with bonds altogether. Then there are other parts of MMT that are a bit zany -- for example the belief that savings demands are inelastic and thus the policy rate can always be at zero, but that has nothing to do with reserves/bond distinction.
That is not the situation in Venezuela, which does not even have a functioning market economy let alone a modern financial system. Venezuela is closer to the situation in Zimbabwe where the banking system has collapsed, the economy has collapsed, and people have lost faith in the currency.
So let's say that the private workers need to eat 100 units of food, and the government workers need to eat 100 units of food, but only 100 units of food is produced. In a well organized economy you admit there is a food shortage and issue rations so everyone gets a coupon for 1/2 a unit of food. In that ration system, it doesn't matter how much money you have -- money is a bit worthless for buying food -- but the hope is that the situation is temporary and prices go back to normal, so people don't rush to try to unload their paper money for food they just leave their paper money alone and the government doesn't fire up any printing presses. In effect those ration cards are a new currency that is temporarily introduced to prevent the old currency from going haywire. That's what the US did in WW2.
But what if there is no public admission of shortages and the government isn't competent enough to create an effective rationing system? Then it prints up enough money to buy 100 units of food and gets into a bidding war with the private sector. So now the price of food goes way up, and the people in the private sector have lots of money but not much food, and the people in the government sector have the printing press and more food. Then day 2 happens, and the government has to print up even more money to buy 100 units of food, because they are bidding against the same people who were overpayed with printed money in period 1. So the price of food goes up even more. Then day 3 happens, and the government must print even more money to buy up the food. Thus you have this spiralling inflation where the ability of the people to outbid the government in period n is the sum of all the overpayments that happened in the previous periods. Thus, mathematically this is an exponential function. Ultimtely farmers refuse to sell their food for any amount of government money at all and the currency becomes completely worthless.
That was the situation when Zimbabwe kicked out the white farmers, and it is the situation of Venezuela in which the non-productive sector eventually exceeded the productive sector. It is also what happened in Weimar when there was a perfect storm of economic collapse from the Depression, a promise to pay massive war debts (with printed money), and massive social unrest due to worker strikes (whose higher wages were also provided by printing money).
Note that Modern Monetary Theory, as it is purely about the financial side of things, has no magic when there are too many people and not enough to eat. MMT deals with modern economies that face problems of overproduction rather than underproduction, and demand shortfalls are the cause of recessions rather than supply shortfalls. It is also about finally shredding the distinction between bonds and reserves in an economy in which both are perfectly liquid cash equivalents.
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/repurchaseagreement.asp
Well, one basic assumption that MMT makes is that the real economy sets the constraints for money creation and that is actually such a boring observation it's surprising that so many people don't understand it.
In the case of Venezuela, the real economy is massively constrained, which means that according to MMT governments should stop creating money and just let the existing money circulate and be taxed. This will solve the hyperinflation problem but there will still be a huge rate of inflation, perhaps as high as 50% per year. The next step would be to raise the interest rate and subsidize agriculture with a slightly lower interest rate. It may take a long time but it would would eventually.
Well, here is my proposal. Introduce a land value tax and -30% negative interest rates on cash. People will run to their bank hoping the bank offers higher interest rates. Well, what is the first thing borrowers would do? They would spend their money on durable goods that decay less than 30% per year. If they use the borrowed money to buy stable currencies, the interest rate on bank accounts would shoot up and only be slightly negative like -3% to act as compensation. There is still room for even higher interest rates. If a business earns a return it can pay positive interest rates. Since future income is not affected by interest rates, the businesses that earn the most money and therefore be the most valuable will be long lasting businesses. It takes 35 2021 dollars to get 1 2031 dollar in this system.
Well I would suggest this idea with -5% interest but since Venezuela has hyperinflation it would be realistic to have excessively high negative interest rates on cash to fund the government. The benefit is that it doesn't ruin the unit of account function of the local currency.
The result of making the currency less desirable is that people stop using the currency and transact in something else. That already happened -- both the Venezuelan government and the Venezuelan currency are doomed, the later already abandoned and the former kept in power only by Cuban mercenaries sent to Venezuela in exchange for oil. When Venezuela can no longer send enough oil to Cuba, the government will fall. The question is how many people need to starve before that happens and how many times will they need to keep removing zeroes from their bills. Soon they wont have the capacity to even print new bills, so that, too, will stop.
What happens is that first, the shelves are emptied very quickly because the price is too low, second the shelves aren't refilled because there is no profit to be made, finally businesses shut down because fixed expenses can't be paid.
It's clear that the government should have instated a very very high VAT or sales tax to counteract the inflation. Maybe a VAT as high as 50%.
Government destroys production by confiscating farms etc from the rich/ the white and giving them to poor locals.
The farm which used to produce hundreds of tons of food for everyone now has has few subsistence farmers feeding themselves.
The people who used to get the food say we're hungry.
a: The govt prints money and gives it to them to buy food.
But more money chasing not enough food causes food prices to go up. People say they are hungry.
GOTO a:
The whole process is fairly dumb which is why you only get it in a few places with dictators like Mugabe or Maduro who threaten to shoot anyone who tries to stop them.
This might scare me more than the rest of the article.
Im not an economist or anything but probably a way to help their economy rather than giving as charity?
https://www.thebalancesmb.com/what-is-barter-exchange-398141
The account balance is similar to having money but you can't take money out of the exchange. It's tracking "debt" or IOUs (I owe you).
"Healthy economy" are the keywords here. Most Venezuelans were too happy when army seized inventory of major retailers .
Running out of other people money is an inevitable end of socialism.
Could see the technical implications, also the random price swings
Death, Starvation and Destruction
But the fact is millions are starving and suffering. This is no time for 'i told you so.' The suffering people didn't choose this.
There's still a large amount of people who didn't vote for these people affected.
And even if all 100% signed up and voted for these people, I still don't feel it helps to rub their suffering in their face.
They 100% did, an article from 2011/2013 about the government distributing low cost appliances[1] and free houses[2]. They were getting tons of free and cheap stuff and the people were celebrating it.