It doesn't make a difference if you using a Bitcoin ATM or transfer to your Kraken account (except a 10% fee for the former).
Further transactions after withdrawing would be difficult to discern, but an exchange could be used to track an approximation of how much Monero you own.
A cash based ATM purchase would be more difficult to track since no KYC is involved.
That means the transactions can't be traced to your KYC wallet on Kraken, meaning you're spending 10% on an ATM for no reason.
The transactions to and from Kraken can definitely be tracked since they would have a record of the actual wallet address you sent your funds to. As for things that happen after that money hits your wallet - you’re right they wouldn’t be able to track it.
I checked the Monero subreddit just to see if my understanding of it tracked with what people who actually own it say and it looks like they agree that transferring from a KYC exchange does allow tracking for transactions coming out or into the exchange.
https://reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ppcusq/moving_funds_bet...
I also didn't say you transfer directly into Kraken. Instead, you would use at least 1 or 2 other wallets before transferring into Kraken, because that bypasses their scanning.
Kraken is still cheaper while doing that than paying a 10% fee for an ATM.
You still need to create a wallet, key, etc. and that is not easy to do for beginners without an exchange like Kraken. Most DNMs use temporary addresses so it's not a good idea to try to transfer directly from a bitcon ATM to a DNM.
Additionally the sender can prove they sent a specific transaction output to you, without exposing information where it came from.
edit: and re:KYC, there is a money limit above which you need to provide KYC/registration. This limit is 24000 CZK = 1096 USD