THe idea that Autonomous trucks could put all of the Truckers in the US out of business overnight is fantasy... but not an insane one, by economics standards. There is significant technological promise - We already have trucks that can line-follow for hundreds of miles without crashing. This represents an amazing amount of progress compared to the 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge, where the farthest car made it 11KM[1]. We could see just as much progress in the next five years as in the last 15, or we could see none at all - And how much progress we've made is debatable too, because some estimates say 1 crash/1,000 miles, and others 1/1,000,000.

The promise of this technology being on the horizon has led to pressure from the trucking companies to keep their costs down, lest they be replaced. The question in logistics providers minds is not if, but when, autonomous driving will replace human drivers for a significant number of miles driven. This has led to a depression effect where new drivers are not competing, because they're being offered lower wages and they see the writing on the wall too.

There are also several massive propaganda thumbs on the scale, including Government and tech companies, pretending that these things are closer than they are. Nobody is making rational decisions here; The market is truly insane. The workers are bearing the cost, and are choosing to take their labor elsewhere.

Economics is always an equilibrium, but often one still experiencing shocks. The market can and will adjust wages back up - If self-driving does not pan out. But that threat is acting as a buffer to suppress correction from the shocks that the system has experienced.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge#2004_Gra...