FBI: Record Surge in 2020 Murders | Hacker News Reader

FBI: Record Surge in 2020 Murders

usatoday.com

24 pointssayonaraman4 comments

Can someone make a map or table showing the per-capita murder rate changes per county, and overlap that with counties that had per-capita effective-law-enforcement-bodies-available changes?

In other words, if Baltimore lost hundreds of law enforcement officers due to early retirements/police union strikes/"Defund the Police", and also saw a murder spike, I'd want to see that highlighted....and the same for any other city with similar results (which, I suspect, all have similar root causes).

https://patriotdailypress.org/2021/04/25/police-shortage-cop...

Meh, comparing to the 90s peak in absolute numbers makes no sense, and seems disingenuous. 21000 murders now vs 25000 in the 90s is still half, per capita, there are about a hundred million more people here now.

The article seems to portray the situation accurately and even includes rate info “ Even with the 2021 increase, the homicide rate... was well below the rate for those cities in the early 1990s (15 deaths per 100,000 residents versus 28 murders per 100,000 in 1993)”

I think. It makes sense to compare the murder rate to historical rates and the biggest item of interest to me is the spike over the past 10 years, not that they had to go back to 1991 to get a higher rate.

So murders are up, but it’s not as bad as it once was.

Still worth investigating what made murders (and crime) go up so much in 2020.

Good point. Thanks for that!

I stopped reading when I saw:

“Although the reported annual increase was dramatic, the total number of homicides last year – 21,570 – did not surpass some stunning totals in the early 1990s, including the nearly 25,000 murders recorded in 1991.”

then I went down the rabbit hole of why they would compare to that total (and looking up per capita rates, in anger), but you’re right, they got to the point later, and on reflection their comparison is that the 90s were worse, but since the absolutes are so close I find it confusing and distracting, and I suspect others fall for this in bad ways, starting with the per capita rate would have made the same point without any confusion.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com