Is it some sort of deniability thing to say your hilariously unreasonable miner tip was mined by a random miner who may or may not be you? Surely regulators/prosecutors aren't this gullible.
It's also important to consider the psychology of things like Ponzi schemes. A bright 12 year old can understand why a Ponzi scheme falls apart in the long run. But for most of the people running them, they aren't thinking about the long run. They're responding to short-term incentives. An investor wants money back? Well there's money, so let's give some to them. Low on money? Go out and sell more people on putting money in. People have concerns? Reassure them that everything's fine, better than fine, amazing in fact.
So the question of "do they think they can get away with it in the long run" is not really the right one to ask. 100% of their attention is on the short term. They carefully avoid thinking about the long run at all, because it's way too uncomfortable. As long as the problems are deniable enough in the short term, they're just going to keep going.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28673552 (HN: Tracking stolen crypto is a booming business) | https://archive.is/s1WvQ
Yes I'm sure it's purely coincidence that the "random on the street" who mined this block is a major Bitfinex shareholder.
("Fat finger" errors like this are not unheard of in the read financial system, but that usually allows reversal)
Anyway, be your own bank, I'm sure you can figure this out. /s
Base Fee Per Gas: 0.000000058907049227 Ether (58.907049227 Gwei)
The paid gas fee for the transaction is: 0.053243669870735422 Ether (53,243,669.870735422 Gwei)
Perhaps they wanted to post the transaction for 53 Gwei but fatfingered it? Or entered Pwei instead.
Edit: This block was apparently mined by poolin pool: https://minerstat.com/coin/POOLIN-ETH
Their rewards almost doubled
This reinforces by most miners being willing to join, to get a share in monopoly rents over miners-never-earning. The big mining pool(s) could let in enough to stay big enough. But not too many to spread the monopolistic gains by too broad a base.
From the article.
And as said, given previous dishonesty from Bitfinex about all sorts of unrelated parties (they claimed to be independent of Tether, until that was proven a lie, and they are heavily intertwined with their bank, Deltec, who says that they have "insight into every transaction and Tether"), I'm going to consider Occam's Razor, here.
Who does the fee go to? I would have thought the miner. But if so, how can you predict (or control) which miner will get your block?
That said, logging this might violate GDPR :)
[0] https://etherscan.io/tx/0x2c9931793876db33b1a9aad123ad4921df...
Yes. For instance on etherscan there's a "Confirmed within x secs" indicator, which is "Estimated duration between time First Seen and included in block".
Say a colluding miner mines blocks including this unbroadcast transaction until they finally hit the block target with this transaction included.
Bitfinex then broadcasts the transaction to mempool. After some plausible delay (but a short enough one that no one else gets a chance to mine it), the colluding miner publishes a valid block including the transaction. No one can confirm that the miner didn't receive the transaction from mempool like everyone else, and then 'get lucky' shortly after.
I'm not saying this is what happened, I think user error is more likely. But it can neither be ruled out nor easily proven.