[1] https://www.ft.com/content/5ec6b18d-c855-408d-acad-cb5779d10...
[2] https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/us-blame-russia...
They want Germany to fire up Nord Stream 2, from which point onwards they can say "as seen in 2021, we can't meet your needs without it" and it never turns off again
How Germany could be pressured (with NS-2 or without it)? With what?
"Gazprom Germania is keeping a low profile when asked about the reasons for the largely empty Rehden storage facility. Injection and withdrawal volumes were carried out by customers, a spokesman said in response to a query. "Therefore, we also cannot forecast how the development will look in the future."
I wonder if this type of event will presage a shift back to nuclear for Europe. Nuclear and renewable are basically Europe's only options for energy independence. A price rise like this might make them rethink their current fuel mix.
What drives energy prices in central Europe are investments in changing the infrastructure to renewable. Yes, that isn't cheap. But not really a crisis in the common sense. Some people would like to see the gas prices inflated perhaps.
well, then, it is priced in, maybe just not that gradually
It was all a long term plan, but poorly executed.
Nuclear would be great. I’m not sure how many reactors are gen 2 or gen 3. Gen 2 reactors are still risky.
Coal is actually pretty important to smooth out energy. There was something fascinating I learned during the Texas outage last year. At the time I was privy to private exchange emails among power engineers.
One engineer explained that one of the problems they were having is that, with the closing of coal plants, the reliability of the grid goes down. And with a very good reason: You can store a massive pile of coal next to the plant for (basically) free [1].
oil, by comparison, is expensive to store, natgas more expensive still. What happens is, in the winter, the pressure of the natgas lines goes down as consumers drive up their thermostats. Therefore, natgas plants can't deliver the power required beacuse the gas isn't there. So, in the N. East of the USA where there are nasty cold snaps, power operators have piles of coal ready to be burned in coal plants.
Most of the power is still from natgas throughout the year, but coal bails you out when it gets super cold (note, the midwest doesn't need this because it's always nastily cold there -> the natgas lines are built accordingly).
[1] Some, having read the popular press explanations of the outage, will complain that renewables delivered 90% of what was requested. That's true, but only half of the story. The 90% figure was a de-rated amount of energy [2]. Basically dispatchers knew that renewables weren't going to deliver and adjusted their predictions accordingly. The blackout happened, therefore, because the power source that was expected to show up and deliver in this situation tripped over itself. There's no doubt natgas can deliver - it does every winter in the North - but it can't if it's not implemented properly, or if there's not enough gas pressure in the lines to deal with a massive sure.
[2] None of this is meant to be a dismissal of renewable energy. Texas leads in renewables, and why shouldn't they? It's a resource that (can) cleans up our environment. But i power we can't treat things like panaceas and have to be realistic about where we stand.
Month August,September
2021: 52%,40%
2020: 48%,44%
2019: 46%,48%
2018: 38%,41%
The thing about gas is that you can store it. If August produces too much you can use less gas in August and use it in September. If you take both months they average to 46% which is the same as 2020. 10% less renewables in this specific month isn't enough to cause price explosions especially when the previous month had been at an all time high.
Data: https://energy-charts.info/charts/renewable_share/chart.htm?...
The amount of gas usage for electricity production isn't actually increasing that much either because coal capacity is actually mostly being replaced with renewable energy instead. There are maybe a few new gas plants coming online recently but overall the proportion of gas is barely growing in the European electricity market (unlike renewables). E.g. Germany has actually seen a slight decrease in the overall amount of gas consumed over the last 20 years or so: https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consu...
However, the problem is not shortages or blackouts but high prices of gas specifically. There are no blackouts in Europe right now. Just people getting frustrated with having to pay more for their energy.
Partially the high prices are because of a global shift in demand and partially this is because of e.g. CO2 emission pricing, which is a thing in Europe. But a big part is also that Covid lockdown restrictions have been lifted in the last few months and economic activity and associated energy consumption is a lot higher all over the world. Large parts of Europe use gas for heating much more than for electricity. Gas shortages would be a problem for that reason specifically. So, I expect Russia will have a great year for gas exports as they will be able to charge a premium.
This report has a nice summary of the energy market in Europe last month: https://aleasoft.com/beyond-price-records-august-good-month-...
Wind in Germany was actually improving during August. Solar was pretty decent too though July was a bit off compared to previous years. It's autumn now so that usually means more wind and less solar. Lots of rain too. Good news for wind and hydro in other words. I'm not aware of any seasonally unusual drought or low wind predictions for the next few months.
RF has built NS2, purely political project, and now wants to certify it.
And winter is coming, which means more demand for energy in general and less supply from solar specially.
Also gas tankers have waited for years on the sea without entering port because of COVID. Lots of companies have gone under and the supply has been disrupted.
It takes months for a gas tanker to move and global transport right now is chaos.