Tesla cannot claim autopilot is safer than a human driver based on this type of comparison.
Still, they fooled you and many others in this thread, so I guess their marketing works.
Tesla cannot claim autopilot is safer than a human driver based on this type of comparison.
Still, they fooled you and many others in this thread, so I guess their marketing works.
For historical reasons, I have lots of friends who do what is now called "data science" professionally and literally every one of them has asked, unprompted, about whether the numbers Tesla reports are based on non-comparable sets, which they are, early in any conversation on Tesla FSD. It is totally obvious.
That is, take the numbers we have and show that if you select out the right data set from public numbers about other kinds of driving, that the Tesla AP values are actually more dangerous. This surely isn't easy but it's absolutely doable (and, let's be clear, such an analysis would be worth a lot of money to Tesla's competitors -- there's a built-in incentive to do this). But no one has numbers like that anywhere I've seen. Likely because, as seems like the obvious hypothesis, there aren't enough events to make a story for a safety problem via any analysis.
So you are arguing about methodology and not results. That's pretty much the definition of "nitpicking". And it will never end. You'll insist that Tesla AP is somehow hiding phantom deaths for years, because it's your prior. But it's not supported, it's just not.
However, here’s an analysis from a few years ago that should at least give you pause in claiming that Tesla’s are definitively safer:
https://medium.com/@MidwesternHedgi/teslas-driver-fatality-r...