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Comment by Loughla | Hacker News Reader

I've noticed this quite a bit, and I don't understand it. People keep writing articles and saying things amounting to 'it just won't last forever'. But the reason is, because it just won't, totalitarian governments don't last.

Why wouldn't it? Strong central government. Clear economic and social goals with the ends justifying whatever unethical means. A complacent middle and upper class satiated by enough new wealth to make them fat(ter than they used to be) and happy.

Why won't they be the next world power for the foreseeable future? Is there an anti-party faction in China that's larger and more powerful than I see in US media?

Or is this just wishful thinking from the west?

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Nothing wrong with the fundamentals of your argument, but growth can’t be unlimited. Eventually it’s starts slowing down, then those complacent middle class will start being less complacent and start demanding more freedom.

I think it’s reasonable to say the CCP will keep their grip on power for as long as they can continue delivering wealth to the middle class, and lifting those in poverty into the middle class. What’s not clear is how long the CCP can continue delivering that wealth.

The ongoing crisis with Everglade is showing that the CCP power and ability to generate wealth is not unlimited. I doubt it’s the beginning of the end, but it does shine a light on the long term structural flaws of their strategy. It’ll be interesting to see how the CCP deals with this over the next 10 to 20 years, maybe they’ll find a new strategy to maintain power, or maybe they’ll start a slow and gentle transition into democracy, allowing them to placate the middle class who won’t be seeing outsized wealth growth anymore.

That newly freedom-thirsty middle class could be simply brutally suppressed by an automated police force, powered by AI-driven surveillance. The CCP is a long-term thinking government, I'm sure they are at least considering how it would work.

Perhaps, but a brutally suppressed population doesn’t tend to be a very productive one.

Not saying it won’t happen, but I don’t think it’s a clear cut as you make it, and I think the CCP are smart enough to know that. They already do an astonishingly good job of treading the line between an authoritarian government that exploits it population for wealth, and one that empowers its populations for productivity and even greater wealth.

The problem comes from the fact that educated, wealthy middle classes are not fungible I'm the same way peasants are.

You can crush a thousand peasant farmers and replace them easily, you can't do that with the middle class without heavily setting back your economy and therefore being less competitive on the world stage.

The CCP will need to decide whether they want to release control and let their population produce value, or keep control and be unable to compete as a world power.

That's my take.

Considering the cultural revolution in China, the Siberian extermination camps of Soviet Russia, and the utterly bizarre treatment Imperial Britain had for petty criminals at the turn of the century, and the US Southern states fighting and dying for the right to enslave… I think that authoritarian governments would rather see tens if not hundreds of millions die before they ever lose their grip on power.

When things go poorly there is always an internal scapegoat, and knowing that no matter how low your situation is it’s (a) not your fault and (b) there is someone who has it worse is a great way to keep social cohesion through troublesome times. And if all else fails, one can find an external party and invade them as both a distraction and a way to deliver spoils to your loyalists.

I’d bet that things will get worse for ethnic and religious minorities in China during a downturn in the economy and if the economy continues to slowly slide for a decade then the neighbors of China like the Philippines will see more of their territory taken away.

My bet is on good ole drugged troops over AI.

> then those complacent middle class will start being less complacent and start demanding more freedom.

They will not start demanding more freedom (only a small minority will do that). They will become increasingly agitated and demand the kind of economic progress they had before, which the CCP won't be able to deliver (the easy, fast, low-debt growth has largely been saturated).

Specifically the CCP | people-of-China socioeconomic pact is based on the country continuing to deliver massive economic gains to the bulk of the population.

Xi has begun a new cultural revolution (just ahead of the curve) because he recognizes it's going to be required to stomp down on the population in order for the CCP to retain its position, as the easy economic gains are well over. The leadership of the CCP recognizes what's inevitable about their context: they either had to let go of power increasingly, or they have to become more totalitarian, as the growth pact begins to falter. What waits for China the next 30 years, is significant demographic erosion, slow growth and epic persistent debt problems (which doesn't mean they aren't going to be a superpower, they are).

In this vein, this is the United States' opportunity to out-compete China. We need to refactor immigration and foreign policy to embrace adding regions, refugees, and other migrants to our fold. Otherwise they will be added adhoc in overwhelming numbers and much to the surprise of government and the people. The world is getting hot. This causes unforseen changes like political upheaval and subsequent migrations (Hatian example recently).

The only answer might be adding other countries into our representative government system (not colonialism, but peacefully and equitably adding other willing states that want to benefit from stable government). Seems people are already voting to join with their feet. Embrace it.

I feel like North Korea shows that it's not just about growth. I would expect the CCP to hold power in the same way North Korea's dictator holds power even when the majority of the country is starving. Am I wrong?

> ongoing crisis with Everglade

What is this? "Everglade" is a common enough word that I can't find anything besides mentions of the wetlands in Florida.

> What is this? "Everglade"

GP needs to learn to spell

Evergrande is an indebted chinese property developer which is the current ticking financial time bomb this week in China.

What does GP stand for?

Grand-Parent (comment)

>The ongoing crisis with Everglade

You mean Evergrande (3333.HK)

> Or is this just wishful thinking from the west?

It's state propaganda. A (clever and very well designed) mix of known government actors and easily influenced third parties that work to push a specific narrative online. The thundering irony is that the west reports on such practices extensively when it comes to China, but the far more obvious actor (visible in the west) is your own government.

I don’t think that it’s “a sure fire thing that it’ll collapse in N years” or anything, but I do have to wonder if a system that concentrates power that significantly would be less long-term stable, as all you need is one less-competent supreme leader to send the whole thing tumbling.

Where did GP write "it just won't last forever"?

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